1. Truce or transformation? Duncan Morrow Community Relations Council

4. Northern Ireland Unionist/Protestant 65%---55% Nationalist/Catholic 35%-45%

5. Loyalist Resistance

7. A state of antagonism Different experiences of the state. law and justice Different experiences of the state. law and justice Fear is rational, defining the limits of trust, the requirement to resist and the discourse of politics Fear is rational, defining the limits of trust, the requirement to resist and the discourse of politics Separation (institutional, social and physical) – structured by fear, generating solidarity and structuring memory and meaning Separation (institutional, social and physical) – structured by fear, generating solidarity and structuring memory and meaning Culture as antagonism – religion, sport, symbols Culture as antagonism – religion, sport, symbols Collapse of critical categories: Crime, violence, democracy, rule of law (including HR), citizenship, equality Collapse of critical categories: Crime, violence, democracy, rule of law (including HR), citizenship, equality The ‘community’ as the locus social cohesion, not the state nor the person The ‘community’ as the locus social cohesion, not the state nor the person Failure of class and economics to penetrate politics Failure of class and economics to penetrate politics

8. Unionist Nationalist ‘Homeland Security’ and the need for defence justify the removal of rights and segregation, especially in housing and education. Paramilitary formations emerge understanding themselves as defensive forces. Because ‘they’ are the cause, political progress requires ‘them’ to change Peace with the ‘evil’ enemy is easily equated with INjustice.

10. Unionist Nationalist Sinn Fein Unionist USA EU

12. Core Values: Consent, Equality and Human Rights Bridging Social Capital

13. Purely political means Rule of Law Power-sharing

14. Loyal Disloyal

15. 1.7m

16. Unionist Nationalist They used to be the problem Now They are our permanent partner ‘

17. The politics of paradox Truce or transformation?

18. Unionist Nationalist Violence is contained Suspicion and fear underpin social choices Antagonism structures community Partnership is built-in to politics Sharing is ‘the new black’ Sharing is nobody’s aspiration Peace and Justice must be pursued together Justice requires punishing the guilty ‘

21. % believing that relations between Protestants and Catholics are better now than 5 years ago (NILTS) % believing that relations between Protestants and Catholics are better now than 5 years ago (NILTS)

22. % believing that relations between Protestants and Catholics will be better in 5 years time(NILTS)

23. Overlap between nationality and religion (NILTS 2007) CatholicProtestantOtherAll British 433239 Irish 262<129 NI10141 25 Other 241 7

24. % saying they would prefer to live in a mixed- religion neighbourhood (NILTS)

25. % saying they would prefer to send their children to a mixed-religion school (NILTS)

27. The costs of antagonism Antagonism is about everything= policy paralysis Antagonism is about everything= policy paralysis Endemic paramilitarism – security above all Endemic paramilitarism – security above all Deterrence of investment and migration Deterrence of investment and migration Duplication of services Duplication of services Distorted labour markets Distorted labour markets Disruption of tourism Disruption of tourism Poverty and violence Poverty and violence Quality of life Quality of life

29. Challenges to change Politics The limits of political commitment A culture of political opposition The risks of serious leadership in public policy The weakness of the state – control of territory Economics Vested interest in segregation Paramilitarism and segregation as economics Scale and scope Culture Antagonism as our culture

30. Determinants of change International political pressure/assistance International political pressure/assistance Economics of partnership Economics of partnership There is no alternative There is no alternative Leadership and risk Leadership and risk Deliberate Shared Space – Utility, Location, Design and Management Deliberate Shared Space – Utility, Location, Design and Management Education and Youthwork Education and Youthwork

31. Sources of Change Post-holocaust Europe – violence and integration Travel and technology – globalisation Migration and economics  From poverty and emigration to wealth and immigration and back again  Migration  More Muslims than Methodists Social Cohesion and integration across Europe

32. Interventions for change Shared Institutions – Politics, Local Government, Police, Integrated Schools Umbrella Groups (NICVA, RCN). Projects of Common Interest – Childcare, Social Enterprise, City Centre Management Chequebook Partnership – PEACE, Government Promoting Bridging Capital - IFI, EU, CRC

33. Targeting Division in practice Engaging core institutions – Trade Unions, Churches, Sport, Arts Hard to reach groups Third party mediation capacity Difficult conversations – democracy, justice and freedom Conflict Management - crisis intervention and high risk engagement Victims work Residential capacity Leadership Development Resources Development

34. Opportunities for influence Models of Practice Partnership Rule of Law Policy Advocacy Research and Publications Resource Development Events

35. The past obstructs the future Ongoing segregation Paramilitary structures The weakness of shared aspiration

36. The challenge to consociation – the road to equality is not an equal one How do political parties deliver to ’the others’ without damaging their own voter base? How do political parties deliver to ’the others’ without damaging their own voter base? Equality will require diverse solutions - Change has emphasised the difference between loyalist and nationalist communities not generated similarity. Equality will require diverse solutions - Change has emphasised the difference between loyalist and nationalist communities not generated similarity. Good Relations does not mean instant harmony – rather it means developing a culture which can debate and decide these issues honestly, on the basis of evidence not political allegiance. Good Relations does not mean instant harmony – rather it means developing a culture which can debate and decide these issues honestly, on the basis of evidence not political allegiance.

37. January 2003: Launch of Consultation September 2003: Over 10,000 people respond January 2004: Clear preference for increased government commitment March 2005: Launch of Strategy document September 2007: Dead on arrival?

38. Programme for Government commitment to ‘a shared and better future’ – 14 times within the document contained within the First and Deputy First Minister’s foreword part of Minister’s launch of budget 2008-11

39. Truce to transformation The acceptable level of division The acceptable level of division War guilt and reconciliation War guilt and reconciliation Imagining the scale of change Imagining the scale of change Plausibility and desirability Plausibility and desirability International audience versus political base International audience versus political base The impossibility of failure The impossibility of failure