1. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum1 GSM: A European Success Story. Interaction between major players within National Systems of Innovation in a Nordic Perspective (and an Outsider Perspective on China) Syros seminar, 11 July 2008 Bent Dalum DRUID/IKE and Center for TeleInFrastructure Department of Business Studies Aalborg University, Denmark bd@business.aau.dk - www.business.aau.dk/~bd

2. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum2 Technological life cycles – Mobile Technology. The “Nordic-EU track”: 1

3. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum3 Wireless history – 0G (’landmobile’) Major boost during WW2 Boost of non-military applications after WW2 The commercial fleets: maritime radiocommunications ’Landmobile’: police, firefighters, transport companies (truck fleets, taxis etc.) Major companies in landmobile: General Electric, Motorola (focused entirely of wireless technologies) Danish Storno (founded 1947): No. 3 producer of equipment world wide 1960s and 1970s

4. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum4 Wireless history – 1G a US invention, but… AT&T introduceed first mobile telephony system in 1946 in St. Louis. Bell Labs scientist Ring invented the concept of cellular systems in 1947 1971 AT&T, RCA and Motorola filed proposals to use 800 MHz band for cellular systems 1983 FCC granted first commercial cellular licenses 1983 Ameritech launched first commercial cellular system in Chicago.

5. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum5 Wireless history – 1G the Nordic market became the ’lead user’ NMT standardization began in 1970 among the Nordic PTOs. NMT 450 MHz implemented in Sweden October 1980 and in Denmark, Finland and Norway in early 1981.

6. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum6 Wireless history – 1G (analogue) the various standards NMT 450 from 1980 and 900 from appr. 1985 1993 NMT introduced in 36 countries AMPS actually introduced in more countries (e.g Latin America) But the penetration ratios in the Nordic countries significantly larger than anywhere else in the world. TACS in the UK and C-450 in West Germany

7. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum7 Wireless history – 2G (digital) the various standards GSM from 1992: an EU effort. NMT ’copied’ - as an institution - and enlarged to the entire EU. ETSI formed in 1988. GSM: the world winner (Ericsson and Nokia). Operated in 103 countries already in 1996. D-AMPS (Motorola and AT&T) and CDMA (Qualcomm) in the US. PDC in Japan.

8. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum8 Wireless history – 2G a ’family’ of ETSI standards GSM 900 and GSM 1800 (called DCS 1800) DECT = cordless phones. Never a breakthrough in integration of GSM and DECT, although this will fulfill evident user needs. TETRA: a ’public, but closed’ system for police, firefighters, ambulances etc. ERMES: paging

9. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum9 Wireless history – 2.5G GPRS: always on; makes WAP possible, higher transmission speed EDGE: makes transmission in the 50-100 Kbit within reach GRPS and EDGE are ’extensions’ of the existing GSM networks EDGE is growing fast in the US GSM market

10. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum10 Wireless history – 3G not a world standard IMT2000 a great ITU vision but did not succeed ETSI decision in January 1998 on WCDMA = UMTS. The 3GPP group. CDMA2000 Qualcomm. 3GPP2 TD-SCDMA China? 3,5G HSPA

11. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum11 WCDMA-HSPA Key Facts (GSA March 08) 211 commercial WCDMA operators in 91 countries WCDMA technology in use by over 72% of 293 commercial 3G operators Over 179 million WCDMA subscribers (Q4 07); 6.9 million monthly growth in 2H 07 Over 62% of commercial HSDPA operators support 3.6 Mbps peak or higher Over 1.1 billion GSM & WCDMA-HSDPA subscribers in HSDPA-enabled networks

12. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum12 The present ‘Turbo 3G’ hype & 4G 3.5G (‘Turbo 3G’) is being rolled-out massively world-wide Turbo 3G = “The wireless Internet” or “wireles broadband”, i.e. after some 7-8 years 3G can finally deliver the hype-dreams from 1999/2000 AT&T, Vodafone, Verizon and China Mobile gave a joint announcement of 4G = LTE of the WCDMA technology in early 2008. Where is a 4G version of TD-SCDMA in this pattern?

13. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum13 Technological life cycles – Mobile Technology. The “Nordic-EU track”: 2

14. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum14 China (1) 3G not launched yet. Probably three versions: WCDMA, CDMA2000 and TD-CDMA China Mobile: the largest wireless operator in the world measured by subscribers. Vodafone is the largest by revenue and a minority shareholder in China Mobile Huawei has leapfrogged into the global “Premier League”. Recently No. 3 in wireless infrastructure, only surpassed by Ericsson and Nokia Siemens. ZTE also a strong player Datang is the TD-SCDMA specialist, not Huawei and ZTE (?)

15. Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum15 China (2) Will the postponement of 3G potentially dampen the growth of such companies as Huawei and ZTE? Will a 4G version of TD-SCDMA be compatible with WCDMA-LTE? In short, the entire wireless world is discussing whether China will become a superpower in wireless: in consumption as well as in R&D and technology or ‘just’ a very big player?