1. L.Bayarbaatar, P.Gomboluudev, P. Batima, L.Natsagdorj B.Erdenetsetseg., B.Bolortsetseg, T.Ganbaatar Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) 2-6 November 2004 Manila Past and Future Climate change and its Impact on Mongolia

2. Content -Impact of past climate change Climate Snow coverage Grassland Livestock -Impact of future climate change change of the climate change of the number of day with snow cover change of permafrost index change of natural zone change of pasture condition change of livestock weight Conclusions - Conclusions

3. Temperature Precipitation Climatic

4. Recent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.66 0 C

5. Geographical distribution of annual mean temperature change in last 30 years

6. Precipitation

7. Annual precipitation changes in the last 30 years, mm

8. We used following equitation, and to compute the number of days with snow cover, where used calendar days of stable become –10 0 C for seasons spring and autumn Here: S 1,S 2 -calendar days of stable become –10 0 C for seasons spring and autumn, k-selected level or here –10 0 C, a, b-monthly air average temperatures of two sides for k level, esp. a b. Number of days with snow cover, \map of climate atlas\ Computed the number of days with snow cover by monthly air average temperature Snow cover Number of days with snow cover = 365 - (S 2 - S 1 ) Actual the number of days with snow on Meteorological stations Past climate study

9. Soil moisture

10. Productivity (1960) Phenology Pasture

11. Plant phenology changes Phenological data of pasture 8 dominant plant for past 30-40 years data were used. Pasture plants emergency is tend to start earlier in the forest steppe and the steppe. In the Altai mountains, the desert steppe and the desert some of plants (Artemisia frigida, Stipa) have had increased trend which means these plant start to grow later. In relatively arid areas such as the Altai mountains and the Gobi desert, growing season is determined by soil moisture rather than temperature. Generally, pasture plant growth stop earlier in the forest steppe, steppe and Altai mountains, later in the desert steppe and the desert. For other development stages there is no general and clear trend for different ecosystems.

12. Pasture biomass changes Mean of pasture biomass, 100 kg/ha In the forest steppe mean pasture biomass is 590 kg/ha, in the steppe 300 kg/ha, in The Altai mountains and the desert 170 kg/ha and in the desert steppe 220 kg/ha. Peak biomass is observed mainly in August, sometimes in July or September depending on individual year’s weather. Pasture biomass changes, 100 kg/ha/1 year Pasture biomass has decreased almost whole summer in all ecosystems.

13. Animal husbadry Animal weight (1980)

14. Animals weight changes for past 20 years Goat Goat weight was decreased by 2 kg in 2001 compared to 1980 level. Cattle The average cow weight was 263.4 kg during the 1980-2001. The cow weight was decreased by 13.8 kg, although it had more variability. Sheep The sheep weight had a decreasing trend during past 22 years by 3.63 kg or 0.17 kg each year. 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1980 198119821983 1984 1985198619871988 1989 199019911992 199319941995 199619971998 1999 2000 2001 Æèí / êã

15. Future climate change study

16. Mongolia 21-st century climate changes under different climate models winter precipitation change intensity is high than summer and summer temperature change intensity is high than winter It is indicating that winter is getting warmer and snowy, and summer is getting hot and dry

17. ModelTemperatureObservedSimulationBIASSt. deviationVariation 1.HadCM3Annual mean0.66-0.441.131.321.75 Summer17.0216.220.791.462.14 Winter-17.55-18.420.923.2110.03 2. CGCM3Annual mean0.66-7.067.634.7822.88 Summer17.0212.164.753.3911.55 Winter-17.55-27.069.446.7645.4 3. CSIROAnnual mean0.66-0.861.543.2510.54 Summer17.0219.18-2.163.3311.06 Winter-17.55-18.020.535.2727.27 How accurate is the climate model?

18. Time sliceWinterSummerAnnual Temperature, Celsius 20200.851.991.37 20502.373.532.81 20803.896.354.88 Precipitation, mm 20205.0-5.29.1 20508.215.144.3 208014.213.655.4 Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission scenarios by HadCM3 Climate Model

19. Geographical Distribution of Temperature Change

20. Geographical Distribution of Precipitation Change

21. 1961-1990 20502080 2020 Annual mean temperature, HadCM3 A2

22. 2010-20392040-20692070-2099 Natural zone

23. . HADCM3 çàãâàðààð /À2/ òîîöîîëñîí 0 èçîòåðì áîëîí –10 0 -ààñ õ¿éòýí õîíîãèéí òîîíû ººð÷ëºëò 2080 2020 2050 Change of the number of days with snow cover As figures, the climate models scenarios indicate that area of number of days with snow cover will reduce in 2020, 2050 and 2080, and stable snow cover will be in only mountains regions, so days with snow cover is maximum 140 days in an year. Future study Area of without stable snow cover or area of annual air temperature more than 0 0 C

24. F air index shown, Currently, the area of permafrost about 65.6% of Mongolian territory, but this area will reduce in 2020 by 26.1%, in 2050 by 17.1%, in 2080 by 5.7%, Changes of permafrost Future study Seasonal freezing Ground will be increased

25. Models used in the study -Models of pasture and livestock Century 4.0 plant – soil dynamic model –EKZNJTZ – ewe weight gain model in summer and fall –EKUKJTZ – ewe weight loss model in winter and spring

26. Pasture biomass changes under Hadley scenario

27. Pasture potential capacity changes, % The total pasture potential capacity could be increased not considerably (0.01-0.32%). In 2080 this change could not exceed 0.14 %. However, in the nortern part of the country pasture capacity would decrease 0.1-0.29 %.

28. normal Difficult to graze No grazing Animal grazing condition in summer under HADCM3-A2 scenario (Effect of extreme hot weather on grazing) 20 õ¿ðòýë 20 – 25 26- ààñ äýýø

29. Winter grazing condition under HADCM3 –A2 scenario (Effect of extreme cold temperature on grazing) normalDifficult to graze No grazing -20 õ¿ðòýë -20 – - 28 -28- ààñ äîîø

30. Sheep weight changes (kg) in winter under HADCM3 scenario Sheep weight changes (%) in winter under HADCM3 scenario

31. Sheep weight change (kg) in summer and fall under HADCM3 – A2 scenario Sheep weight change (%) in summer and fall under HADCM3 – A2 scenario

32. Conclusions- past climate change  Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.66C  Pasture plant growth stop earlier in the forest steppe, steppe and Altai mountains, later in the desert steppe and the desert. For other development stages there is no general and clear trend for different ecosystems.  Pasture plant biomass have decreased trend whole summer for past 40 years in all ecosystems.  Animal weight has decreasing trend with climate change. Especially winter –spring weight loss has increased in past 20 years.

33. Conclusion- future climate change  The climate models scenarios indicate that area of number of days with snow cover will reduce in 2020, 2050 and 2080, and stable snow cover will be in only mountains regions, so days with snow cover is maximum 140 days in an year  Pasture biomass and potential capacity could decrease especially in the forest steppe and the steppe region.  Temperature increase would lead to shorten grazing hours and daily intake of animals  Animal weight would decrease because of the above combined factors