1. Statistical Approach

2. try to understand the R simulation needed what kind of distribution will I ask R to use? Where will I get a reasonable starting point for the magnitude of that variability. Where will I get guesses for realistic variability so I’m not fixing the game.

3. Well Native Pasture Dryland Pasture w/ fence Planned Fence-line Hayed Anually Fileds Spring Rented Tree Rows

8. Anticipating the End: For Each Parcel: Old Attributes Possible Interventions Use Yield – Cost Decision

9. Yield

11. NRCS ARC-GIS Soil

12. Soil Values for Forage Production

13. USDA One AUM = 915 pounds. Given: Annual forage production = 900 pounds per acre. AUM per acre = (900 pounds per acre) x (25 percent grazing efficiency) = (225 pounds available forage per acre) / (915 pounds per AUM) = 0.25 AUM per acre. Range Science: 1000 lb. Cow with calf consumes - 26 lbs of dry forage per day -760 lbs of dry forage per month 1 Animal Unit Month (AUM) = 760 lbs. of dry forage Calculating Rangeland Production 1. 2.

14. Soil Values for Spring and Winter Wheat Mean Year Only

15. Yields Multiply by 915Multiply by 780 Hay Yield:

17. R

18. Vector of soil types for each parcel Forage Yield Equation Wheat Yield Equation Hay Equation AUM Equation Income- cost Equation Stocking Rate Income- cost Equation Compare to Current Use Make Decision Cumulative Parcel Data

19. Yield Range Simulation: Mean Year Stocking Rate Decision Cumulative Parcel Data