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I n v e s t o r p a c k. 2 Market Information  JSE Top 40 index position: #22  Free float41%  Market cap $3.1bn  Daily value traded $6.1m for past.

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Presentation on theme: "I n v e s t o r p a c k. 2 Market Information  JSE Top 40 index position: #22  Free float41%  Market cap $3.1bn  Daily value traded $6.1m for past."— Presentation transcript:

1 i n v e s t o r p a c k

2 2 Market Information  JSE Top 40 index position: #22  Free float41%  Market cap $3.1bn  Daily value traded $6.1m for past 12 months  Annualised turnover 77% of total issued shares  Major shareholders - LNM Group 50.01% (#2 global steel producer) - IDC 8.8% - Institutional 41% - South Africa 28% - International 13% Good liquidity and high turnover

3 3 Company Profile  1928 – Iscor established as parastatal  1989 – Iscor privatised and listed on JSE  1994 – Start of major re-engineering program  2001 – Unbundling of mining division as Kumba Resources  2001 – LNM Holdings N.V. buys initial stake in Iscor  2002 – Iscor enters into BAA with LNM  2004 – LNM/Iscor merger approved; LNM holding goes over 50%  2004 – Name changed to Ispat Iscor  Steel industry ranking - Africa #1 - Global #29 Largest regional steel producer

4 4 Successful Restructuring History  Major re-engineering 1994-2001 - significant headcount reduction (30 000 people) - steel grades down from 302 to 50 - inefficient capacity closed (1mtpa) - moved to lowest quartile on global cost curve  Value added products: - Flat 61% - Long 72%  Mining division (Kumba) unbundled November 2001 - iron ore mining rights retained to ensure supply at cost  Market value increase* since unbundling (Nov ‘01): 500% Major value release * Including effect of rights issue in April 2002

5 5 Production  Operations - 3 integrated steel mills - 1 steel mini-mill - surplus coke batteries producing market coke - captive iron ore (toll-mined by Kumba Resources)  Output - Steel: 6.4 mtpa - Market Coke: 400 ktpa for ferro-chrome industry Largest regional steel producer Long 31% Flat 69%

6 6 Geographic Location Overview of operations Flat Products  Vanderbijlpark  3.1 Mtpa final product  Saldanha  1.3 Mtpa final product Long Products  Newcastle  1.7 Mtpa final product  Vereeniging  0.3 Mtpa final product  6.4 Mtpa final product Market Coke  Vanderbijlpark and Newcastle  400 ktpa Iron ore supply at cost + 3%  6.25 Mtpa iron ore from Sishen  2 Mtpa iron ore from Thabazimbi Vereeniging Johannesburg Newcastle Sishen Vanderbijlpark Thabazimbi Saldanha Cape Town Durban South Africa Southern African location Steel plants Captive iron ore source

7 7 Geographic Sales Switch to better paying markets South Africa Rest of Africa Total Africa Far East European Union North America Middle East Other % 01020304050607080 1H’04 1H’03 2H’03

8 8 Domestic Market  Sound South African economic fundamentals  Good prospects for long-term sustainable growth  Underlying demand recovery throughout 2004  Other Africa market share growing strongly  Domestic margins $100/t > non-African exports Switch to sustainable growth ’000t Imports % Consumption Steel imports Quarterly consumption 500 700 900 1 100 1 300 1 500 1 700 198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002 2004 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Imports Consumption trend

9 9 Domestic Pricing Policy  Domestic prices based on International Parity Principle  Downstream industry support programme ($70m pa) through: - export rebates - strategic concessions - long-term contracts (auto industry, packaging)  Competition Commission (Feb 2004) ruling that Iscor pricing policy is fair and reasonable: complainants have lodged appeal  Government has asked for review of downstream support programme  Current import duty – 5% - risk of removal considered low - SA’s duty amongst lowest in world International parity pricing model

10 10 Invoiced Export Prices Record high prices Source: Ispat Iscor 199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005 180 230 280 330 380 430 480 530 580 630 Hot rolled coil Low carbon wire rod Based on order book & expectations US$/t (c&f)

11 11 ‘mt WSD forecast Global Steel Demand Source: World Steel Dynamics China driving growth in steel demand +2% +10% +22% +21% +22% +2% +8% +2% +4% +0% +3% +6% +4% -4% +3% +6% +3% +9% +6% +7% +3% +4% +1% 0% 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 200020012002200320042005200620072008 Rest of world China

12 12 ‘mt China – Supply and Demand China expected to become net exporter China forecast to become net exporter by 2008 WSD forecast 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 200020012002200320042005200620072008 Production Consumption Source: World Steel Dynamics

13 13 World Steel Consumption Trends Per capita steel demand entering growth phase Source: Macquarie Research World Steel Consumption and GDP Per Capita, 1950-2010 China takes off! 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 5 500 6 000 6 500 7 000 50556065707580859095100105110115120125130135140145150155160 kg steel/capita $US/capita ($1995) 2002 1997 1994 1989 19831979 1975 1971 1970 1973 1961 First and second oil prices and subsequent recessions led to massive light-weighting of steel- containing products Post war expansion to 1970 led to predictions of seemingless endless growth Collapse of USSR led to steel consumption collapse in Eastern Europe Asian crisis 1954 2004 2010 Phase 1 Phase 3 Phase 2 1999

14 14 Global Input Price Trends Global input prices still under pressure Based to 100 Coking coal - contract (LHS) Iron ore fines - contract (LHS) Coke (RHS) Freight rates (RHS) Scrap (RHS) Source: Ispat Iscor 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Jul-01Jan-02Jul-02Jan-03Jul-03Jan-04Jul-04 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

15 15 Raw Material Integration Internally sourced (at cost) Imported Domestic supply agreement s Coke100%-- Coal8%8%37%55% Scrap 81%- 19% Iron ore92%5%5%3% Cost benefit for raw material integration DRI 98%- 2% Actual 1H’04 data

16 16 Key Performance Indicators 2H’031H’031H’04 Exchange rate impacting good productivity performance - percentage4.30.2 6.1 Number of employees (’000)12 53913 045 12 072 CI savings (Rm)30313 464 HRC cash cost - R/t1 637 1 756 1 686 - US$/t231221 254 Billet cash cost - R/t 1 5291 535 1 543 - US$/t217193 231 Percentage value-add exports - flat 44 37 61 - long 7260 72

17 17 Headline Earnings Record earnings Rm 2H’031H’031H’04 * After tax Headline earnings4621 143 Comparable operating profit Financing cost - net interest expense Tax Equity earnings* Revenue Minority interest Comparable earnings BAA remuneration* Restructuring costs* Power contract settlement* - in US$m 1 5041 871 (16)(31) (492) (608) 6748 9 1759 312 (3)1 1 0071 253 (429) (116) (110) 145156 2 948 (14) (914) 179 1 551 10 544 (4) 2 062 (511) 311 - long-term provision top-up(53)(28) (133) # Lower discount rate accounts for R100m #

18 18 Comparable Headline Earnings Trend Steel cycle overshadows Rand strength 0 150 300 450 600 750 900 1 050 1 200 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Rand millionUS$ million 657 1Q’03 596 2Q’03 352 3Q’03 655 4Q’03 1Q’04 669 2Q’04 1 393 210 1 350 1 500 240 79 1Q’03 R8.32/$ 77 2Q’03 R7.73/$ 48 3Q’03 R7.40/$ 97 4Q’03 R6.72/$ 1Q’04 99 R6.75/$ 2Q’04 212 R6.57/$ * Average R/US$ spot rate *

19 19 Key Result Drivers  HRC cash cost per tonne (Rands) -4%  Domestic sales volume +22%  HRC US$ price +40%  Exchange rate +21%  Operating margin* 20% 28% Positive Negative 1H’04 vs 1H’03 * Excluding BAA remuneration (1H’04) & power contract settlement (1H’03) Strong Rand only negative factor

20 20 Sensitivity Analysis Significant gearing to major variables Variable Headline Earnings* Operating Income* EPS (SAc) * Change Domestic sales12718729 ±10% International steel price13419730 ±$10/tonne Exchange rate79 ±10c 116 18 * Based on impact for full six months forecast July-December 2004

21 21 Financial Ratios Margins approaching cyclical peak levels 2H’031H’031H’04 Revenue/invested capital (times) 1.3 1.4 Net cash/equity (%) 5.8 0.2 9.7 Return on equity (%) - on comparative basis (%) 187 2016 23 30 Operating margin (%) - on comparative basis (%) 188 2016 21 28 EBITDA margin (%) - on comparative basis (%) 2313 2522 26 33

22 22 Distribution to Shareholders In view of our strong cash flow:  Current distribution policy being reviewed  Capital reduction proposal to be put to shareholders before end-2004  Programme of capital reduction to be instituted  Current stated capital R14/share  No interim dividend declaration Surplus capital to be returned to shareholders

23 23 3-Year Focus  Further quantum reduction in costs  Increase production from current assets by 1mtpa  Focus on value-add projects  Lowest quartile producer (delivered EU cost basis)  Defer South African steel industry consolidation Join select group of steel companies earning in excess of WACC

24 24 Outlook for 2004  Positive steel business environment - ongoing global consumption growth - prices increasing from current levels - continued strength in domestic demand  Operations - ongoing cost reduction - increased throughput  Earnings - Q3 up on Q2 Positive outlook

25 25 Investment Case  Competitive producer - vertically integrated - lowest cost quartile focus - part of major global steel group - naturally protected domestic market  Growth potential - growing, more profitable regional market - sweat current assets for extra 1mtpa - expansion of market coke operations - domestic steel industry consolidation  Gearing to Chinese growth - steel market fortunes dependent on continued Chinese growth - Ispat Iscor revenue directly linked to international steel prices Competitive low-cost producer

26 M a r k e t D a t a

27 27 Steel Equity Performance Ispat Iscor amongst best performers Source: Bloomberg 0 500 600 Jun ‘02 Aug ‘02 Oct ‘02 Dec ’02 Feb ‘03 Apr ‘03 Jun ‘03 Aug ‘03 Oct ‘03 Dec ‘03 Feb ‘04 Apr ‘04 Jun ‘04 100 200 300 400 China Steel Gerdau CSN POSCO Severstal Ispat Iscor Bluescope Arcelor Nucor US Steel Aug ‘04 Base to 100, all prices in US$

28 28 Steel Equity P/E’s (Forward) Ispat Iscor still attractively valued Source: Bloomberg, 24 August 2004 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 POSCO CST SEVERSTAL ISPAT ISCOR ARCELORUS STEEL STEEL DYNAMICS SAIL INT’L STEEL CHINA STEEL GERDAU NUCOR CSN TISCO BLUESCOPE STEEL BAOSHAN THYSSENKRUPP VOESTALPINE ONESTEEL LIMITED

29 29 Steel Equity Price/Book Ispat Iscor still attractively valued Source: Bloomberg, 24 August 2004 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 CST VOESTALPINE ARCELOR THYSSENKRUPP POSCO ONESTEEL LIMITED ISPAT ISCOR CSN USIMINAS SA CHINA STEEL SEVERSTAL STEEL DYNAMICS BAOSHAN NUCOR INT’L STEEL GERDAU US STEEL TISCO

30 30 Steel Equity Market Capitalisation Mid-sized market cap Source: Bloomberg, 24 August 2004 US$m 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 ONESTEEL LIMITED STEEL DYNAMICS VOESTALPINE CST TISCO INTERNATIONAL STEEL ISPAT ISCOR USIMINAS SA SEVERSTAL BLUESCOPE STEEL US STEEL CSN GERDAU NUCOR CHINA STEEL BAOSHAN THYSSENKRUPP ARCELOR POSCO

31 e x t r a s l i d e s

32 32 Relationship with LNM  Iscor’s long-term desire to link-up with a major steel group  Business assistance agreement signed with LNM (Jan ‘02) - remuneration linked to performance - target cost savings (excl. labour + first 1%) R350m to R700m pa - LNM reward: 5-10% Iscor issued shares or cash equivalent  Sustainable savings to June 2004 – R1 326m per annum - cost savings target exceeded by 132% - R613m (value of 25.7m shares) paid to LNM Dec ‘03 - R731 (value of 18.9m shares) paid to LNM Aug ’04  BAA expires at end-2004 - allowance for renegotiation - approval of minority shareholders required Value from international tie-up

33 33 Business Assistance Agreement BAA payback approximately 1 year Savings achieved Cum % of shares Remuneration due Settled * Measured from Jul-Dec ’01 base, indexed Rm pa* % of max target Dec ‘03687 115% Dec ‘02644 82% Number of shares (m) Rm Jun ‘03 5.8% 388613 Dec ‘0358% 25.7 Jun ‘04731 10.0% 1 326 232% 18.9 Aug ‘04 1 344 44.6 Dec ‘04 Further savings expected (cash)

34 34 BAA Savings Analysis BAA savings spread over group operations By Savings Annualised Savings (Rm) % Total BAA Savings1 326 100% Procurement468 35% Vanderbijlpark 506 38% Saldanha251 19% Newcastle378 29% Efficiencies858 65% By Plant Vereeniging190 14% Total BAA Savings1 326 100% Annualised Savings (Rm) %

35 35 Currency Strength  Rand has strengthened 37% against US$ over past 24 months  Rand relatively stronger than currencies of competitor countries  Costs 65% Rand-based  Focus to maintain position on cost curve  3-yr programme - restructuring - improvement projects - efficiency programmes Pro-active initiatives to counter strong Rand

36 36  Newcastle - pulverised coal injection 1H’05  Vanderbijlpark - Blast Furnace C – throat armour repairCompleted - Blast Furnace D – interim repair 2H’04 - Roofer galvanising line* 1H’06  Coke & chemicals - market coke expansion* 2H’06  Thabazimbi - iron ore mine: life expansion project* Significant spend for value-add Planned Completion * Still to be approved Capital Projects

37 37 Environmental  Environmental master plans approved  All steel operations ISO 14001 certified  Major environmental projects in progress - Vanderbijlpark - main water treatment plant - coke oven gas & water cleaning - Newcastle - reverse osmosis water treatment plant Focus on environmental compliance

38 38 Cash Flow Strong cash flow Rm 2H’031H’031H’04 BAA remuneration(613) Capex(499)(780)(405) Asset sales464113 Working capital(292)(48)(1 069) Finance cost (9) (96) (22) Tax (1 032)(55) (273) Dividends (446) (334) Net cash flow (823)918 1 362 Cash generated by operations2 0222 3023 452

39 39 Capital Expenditure Increased value-add and environmental spend Rm 1H’031H’042H’032H’04 Fcast Replacement300452267352 Environmental7510956130 Total499780405860 Depreciation469451478519 Value adding12421982378

40 40 Sales Volumes Strong domestic sales growth ’000t VanderbijlparkSaldanhaLong products 2H’031H’031H’04 Total 2H’031H’031H’042H’031H’031H’04 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 588 722 787 792 395 438 500 443 460 496 1 509 1 664 565 622 960 939 134 98 114 150 72 70 470 923 1 569 176 350 548 114 84 390 594 984 1H’03 1 483 1 319 3 034 232 2H’03 1 603 1 358 3 225 264 3 101 1H’04 1 210 1 601 290 * Duferco Steel Processing – re-roller mainly for export Domestic DSP* Export Domestic other

41 41 Liquid Steel Production Production affected by Saldanha breakout ’000t 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 VanderbijlparkSaldanhaLong products 2H’031H’031H’04 Total 2H’031H’031H’042H’031H’031H’042H’031H’031H’04 1 811 1 870 606 645 1 073 1 080 1 829 563 1 085 3 490 3 595 3 477

42 42 Flat Product Prices – Hot Rolled Coil Geographical divergence Source: CRU US$/t c&f US Midwest Germany 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004 Far East

43 43 Long Product Prices - Wire Rod Geographical divergence Source: CRU US$/t c&f 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004 US Midwest Germany Far East

44 44 Ispat Iscor Cash Cost Base Cash cost breakdown Iron ore 7% Coal : Local 7% Coal : Import 7% Scrap/DRI/Pellets 6% Other raw material 4% Alloys & coating 9% Refractories 4% Transport 10% Spares & repairs 8% Electricity, gas & petroleum 10% Consumables 4% Services 3% Labour 15% General 6% Total production cost base H1 2004: R6.5 billion

45 45 Raw Material and Energy Impact Iscor’s cost push relatively muted Source: World Steel Dynamics Coking coalCokeIron ore/sinter/pelletsPig ironScrapDRIEnergy US Integrated plant – with coke +$81/ton US Integrated plant – without coke +$135/ton US Minimill –flat products +$199/ton Ispat Iscor +$40/ton 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q1 02Q2 04 $/ton 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q1 02Q2 04 $/ton 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Q1 02Q2 04 $/ton 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q3 02Q2 04 $/ton


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