1. Space Governance: what we may need over the next 50 years William Marshall, Ph.D. 13.04.07, BU

2. Introduction Motives for Space 1.Survival [100] 2.Improving the human welfare and that of other life [10] 3.Understanding/science [1] Motives for Space Governance and general context 1.Why do we have governance at all? --> Boundary conditions that (a) minimise activities harmful for the majority and (b) maximising benefit for all. Civilisation. 2. The 5 Space Treaties clearly insufficient --> Simply c.f. any other domain! 3. Pressure points arising: a.People trying to claim ownership of the moon b.People trying to put weapons in space or deny others access c.Too much space traffic 4.Potentially large precedent setting impact 5.Advance Governance systems in general

3. Key Governance Needed -- SGAC Survey 6.1. How should space be goverened? By the United Nations:38 votes - 25.68% By an entirely new international body:84 votes - 56.76% It should not be governed:25 votes - 16.89% 6.2. Who should form the leadership of this government? All countries:42 votes - 28.38% UN Member states:30 votes - 20.27% Industry:1 votes - 0.68% Space faring countries only as only they have the expertise:34 votes - 22.97% Non-government, non-profit organisations:13 votes - 8.78% The dominant space power:2 votes - 1.35% Space should not be governed:25 votes - 16.89% 6.3. When should this government be formed? As soon as possible - now:58 votes - 39.19% As soon as we start building our first human outpost on another celestial body: 33 votes22% Before the completion of the space station:32 votes - 21.62% We don't need a space government:24 votes - 16.22% Quotes "Opening of national and supranational borders for the free-flow of the world's workforce." "International coordinating mechanism must be formed to keep the world's space programs being developed for peaceful purpose."

4. Key Governance Needed 1.Prohibit Space Based Weapons --> aggressive acts in space CONTEXT a.Facts i.Nuclear weapons --> first species known to be able to consciously wipe itself out ii.30,000 nuclear weapons iii.Political systems unable to cope with WMD (Cuban Missile Crisis) b.3 solutions: i.Disarm all WMDs ii.Change our political institutions fundamentally iii.Self-sustainable settlements off earth c.Note one solution to Fermi Paradox: once technological, all aliens wipe themselves out Key threats to human civilisation 1.Biological weapons 2.Nuclear weapons 3.Epidemics.... 6.Environment 7.NEOs … 86.Space weapons [Chyba]

5. Key Governance Needed 1.Prohibit Space Based Weapons --> aggressive acts in space … MOTIVES d.Two motives: i.Earth: have to stop expanding arms into new domains before we can reduce them on earth ii.Space: the safelty of our future settlements. How do our grandchildren growing up on Mars deal with conflict? e.Pressure points: i.ASAT tests [US, Russia, China] ii.Space-based Missile Defense [US] iii.Stronger dependence on space [US, others] f.Therefore, despite space arms not being an important threat to humanity today, it is an important fork in the road: which way are we going with conflict resolution? g. Other reasons i.Net security loss to any state ii.Don’t meet a cost benefit analysis

6. Key Governance Needed 2.Space Traffic Management a.Increasing numbers of spacecraft, increasing numbers of actors b.Collisions are starting to occur c.Not having STM will be a Tragedy of the Commons d.[ISU Study] 3. Property rights a.Allow resource utilization but not ownership? b.Balance encouragement of exploration with interests of all people c.Develop system to protect places with independently evolved life from exploitation

7. 5. Rockets First Satellites and Launches

9. Debris (cont.)

10. Key Governance Needed 4. Astrocracy. Space as a place to advance political systems to reflect back on earth. a.Americas: freedom of religion – inertial of changing a system from within c.f. starting on a clean slate b.Lunar governance discussion  Astrocracy c.Aim: to advance political systems in order to maximize the benefit to humanity and other life. d.Key features: i.Political jury service ii.Committee on Long term future iii.Non-geographical representation iv.E-voting e.Utilise the fact that those going to other planets f.Benefits reflect back on earth g.SL Synergies: Might relate to governance systems in SL! h.[IAF paper] Clearly many unforseen Governance mechanisms are going to arise.

11. Key Recommendations and Next Steps 1.Prohibit weapons and aggressive acts: a.US change of position (allow discussion) b.US leadership c.negotiate a treaty in CD or COPUOS or append OST d.International Space Surveiallance Centre for verification 2.Space Traffic Management: a.design technical system – IADC like b.major space powers adopt c.take to COPUOS 3.Property rights a.have a discussion in COPUOS 4.Astrocracy a.academic study to decide optimal step size we can take b.trials in Second Life or similar --> ‘International Space Force’ to enforce this?!? [Kalam] Email: william.s.m arshall@nasa.gov william.s.m arshall@nasa.gov