1. 1 Politicas de Uso de Nuevas Tecnologias en la Educacion Superior Bogota, Colombia, Agosto 2005 La educación virtual y el futuro de las universidades Tom Schuller Head, Centro para la Investigación y la Innovación, OECD

2. 2 Economics Department Statistics Directorate Development Co-operation Directorate Trade Directorate For Financial Fiscal and Enterprise Affairs Directorate for Science Technology and Industry Directorate for Education Directorate for Employment Labour and Social Affairs Directorate for Food Agriculture and Fisheries Directorate for Public Management and Territorial Development Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) COMMITTEES SECRETARIAT COUNCI L Environment Directorate

3. 3 IMHE/PEB Education and Training Policy Division Indicators and Analysis Division Centre for Education Research and Innovation Directorate for Education

4. 4 What CERI does:  Carries out studies of key educational issues, using a combination of our own staff and outside experts from around the world.  Develops tools, indicators and frameworks for international analyses of education systems and practices.  Promotes research and policy debate through publications, electronic discussion and conferences.

5. 5 E-Learning in Tertiary Education (2005) r OECD/CERI study: 19 institutions in 13 countries Key issues: - Institutional strategy - Platforms and infrastructure - Students’ access - Teaching and learning - Students and markets - Staff and materials - Funding and governance - Organisational change r Observatory on Borderless Higher Education: 122 institutions in 12 countries

6. 6 E-Learning: The Partnership Challenge (2001) Key issues: r Software not keeping pace with technology r Professional development: too little, too basic, too generic r Content: - quality level - cultural bias: low transferability from US context

7. 7 Distance learning has ‘room to grow’ type of learning engaged in in previous 4 weeks – EU avg 2000 Source: EU Labour Force Survey

8. 8 Definition: The use of ICT to enhance and/or support learning in tertiary education Levels of online presence: r None/trivial r Web-supplemented r Web-dependent r Mixed-mode r Fully online

9. 9 Adoption, enrolments, strategies r Growing but still small-scale: ‘high’ online presence still <5% in most institutions r Modules rather than programmes r Most institutions now have an e-learning strategy, with mixed mode delivery appearing as the main target r The impact of e-learning has mainly be administrative so far: far reaching novel ways of teaching and learning facilitated by ICT remain nascent or still to be invented r Strategies exist, but not to shift to fully online: main rationales are to increase flexibility and enhance pedagogy r Little interest in international markets or in cost reduction

10. 10 Measuring outcomes r Some scepticism following earlier hype r Lack of developed cost-benefit frameworks. However: r Improvement in quality of offer r Development of in-house software and open source software r Learning objects and redesign of materials r Relaxation of time/space constraints

11. 11 Challenges/issues Staffing: - Engaging and developing existing staff - Division of labour/new functions, eg instructional designers Reward systems IPR Scaling up and mainstreaming Partnership issues

12. 12 Policy agenda r Evaluation and dissemination of experience r Support appropriate staff development r R&D on learnng objects and other pedagogic innovations r Clarify IPR issues r Promote dialogue between institutions and IT providers

13. 13 Recent OECD publication on cross-border education (2004) r Internationalisation and Trade in Higher Education r Quality and Recognition in Higher Education: the Cross- Border Challenge

14. 14 University Futures: Purpose of the project r Develop a set of trend analyses and long-term scenarios to help policymakers and stakeholders make strategic choices regarding the future r Engage stakeholders in discussion and give common tools to think on the future (NOT predicting the future)

15. 15 Methodology r Identifying the functions performed by higher education r Identifying trends and driving forces and prioritising them r Exploring the interrelationships between them r Imagining their significance and likely impact in the future r Identifying key dimensions to structure the scenarios r Selecting meaningful scenarios (among thousands)

16. 16 Some driving forces r Demographic changes (ageing population in OECD) r Internationalisation and high demand in emerging economies r Technology r Rise of market forces (research & education) r New forms of governance

17. 17 Causality? More international students More adult learning Smaller system returning to the elitist model Drop in public funding (going increasingly to healthcare) Status quo (academics retire as young cohorts decline) Demography (Ageing society) ?

18. 18 Key dimensions of CERI futures scenarios Degrees delivered by a restricted number of institutions Degrees delivered by a large range of institutions Lifelong learning Initial tertiary education

19. 19 Preliminary set of scenarios Degrees delivered by a restricted number of institutions Degrees delivered by a large range of institutions Lifelong learning Initial tertiary education 3 Free market 2 Entrepreneurial 4 Open & Lifelong 1 Tradition 5 Network 6 Disappearance

20. 20 Thanks r Tom.schuller@oecd.org Tom.schuller@oecd.org r www.oecd.org/edu/ceri