1. Climate change mitigation and Human Development Goals: reconciliation not confrontation Jiahua Pan (panjh@163bj.com) Research Centre for Sustainable Development CASS, China Pre-sessional consultations of the IPCC TAR 27-28 November 2003, Milan Italy

2. Research Center for Sustainable Development work on climate change mitigation &frustration Mandate: academic research and policy analysis on sustainable development related issues Nature: RINGO, independent Goals: try to find solutions, but always unsuccessful Frustration: reconciliation and confrontations in the process, no easy way out Way out? We are trying

3. EU: 15% 5.2% Kyoto Targets: from Berlin Mandate to Marrakech Records KP: Dec. 1997 June 1997 3.6% Change of base year for some Parties Sinks US withdraw Marrakech, 2001

4. Emissions target as a goal, at what level? For both developed and developing country, there are three major categories of goals: Political and/or social stability; Economic growth or development Environment and natural resources Climate goal: a subset category of goals, must be subject to the requirement of higher order goals.

5. Carbon emission: Infrastructure Roads Railways Undergrounds Airport Water Supply & Treatment Facilities Flood Control & Drainage Systems Steel Cement Chemicals Carbon Infrastructure Others

6. A decent living standard necessary calories for survival basic health care education access to clean water Shelter

7. Three types of emissions basic needs collective consumption luxurious / wasteful emissions $

8. Emissions for Basic needs a right for decent living standard but not unlimited Achievement of human development potentials is a basic human right that should be respected for human development is not unlimited: bounded by biological and physical constraints once basic development potentials are realised, no need for further increase in emissions for basic needs but automatic reductions

9. Sufficiency rate: around 3200 calories/day/capita LDCs: lower than subsistence China,Brazil: in between, still increasing Overall trend of human development: Basic necessity consumption: nutrition(k/c.d)

10. The Role of Technology Transfer emissions Currently in use technologies (CUT) Best available technologies (BAT) Subsistence/survival emissions Emissions path to fulfillment of human development under current in use technologies Dev’ed countries no wasteful consumption Emissions path to fulfillment of human development under best available technologies CUT for BAT potential time

11. Linking human development goals to emissions requirement  n setting the first order goal: human development. This can be based on short and/or long term development goals. n the goal is country driven and country specific. n the goal must exclude: n unrealistic goals n luxurious and/or wasteful components n transparent and available to international community n setting the low emissions goal as a second level target

12. Climate change mitigation: what should and can we do? : Obligatory satisfaction of human basic needs and restrictions of excessive / wasteful emissions. Basic commitment Voluntary technological progress and institutional innovation Further commitment: Conditional on transfer of technologies or financial assistance by the developed country not compromise human development goals nor encourage luxurious / wasteful emissions no credits of emissions reductions will be counted if no progress

13. How we can make it in practice?  n voluntary goal: both developed & developing countries can commit n developed: population, tech innovation, economic growth rate n developing: social, economic and technological. n the goal must be subject to international scrutiny??? n no unrealistic goals n no luxurious and/or wasteful components n ???progressive taxation on carbon as a mechanism??? n discourage luxurious/wasteful emissions n raise financial resources for tech transfer n provide a market signal for low carbon tech and consumption

14. Reporting and Implementation Quantification of emissions targets Step 1Assessment of development goals Step 2Specification of socio-economic and environmental targets Step 3Identification of low carbon development paths taking into account of availability of capitals and technologies. Verification of Emissions reductions ex ante information ex post verification Net reductions Incentives and dis-incentives for implementation emissions trading Conditionality requirement Progressive taxation on emissions No exemption of luxurious emissions

15. Problems to be resolved Human development goals: what goals? Short, medium, long term economic development gals as the basis for scrutiny? Definition of basic needs Food (3200k/d/c), shelter (30-50????m 2 /c),clean water, health? Definition of luxurious/wasteful emissions? Use of large, empty and luxurious cars? Several houses/households? Will it be effective in emissions reductions? Workable or not? Real effects