1. Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years for Australians in their 70’s by behavioural risk factors Annette Dobson, Deirdre McLaughlin, Nancy Pachana, Julie Byles, Janni Leung, Kieran McCaul, Leon Flicker, Osvaldo Almeida, Derrick Lopez, Graeme Hankey. NHMRC/ARC Ageing Well, Ageing Productively Grant

2. Background Demographic changes, increasing age and longer life expectancy mean that more people will live into their 70s and 80s.

3. Aims of this study  Provide valid estimates of the combined effects of major behavioural factors on risk of death within 10 years for men and women already in their 70s  Present the results using simple charts to communicate the importance of combinations of risk factors

4. Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health  1921-1926 cohort  Health, well-being and health service use  Surveyed every 3 years: 1996 – to at least 2015  National – over 40,000 participants  Funded by Australian Department of Health & Ageing

5. Health in Men Study  Aged 65-83  Screened in 1996-1999 for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm  Followed up in 2001-2004 for HIMS study  Perth area only  Physical examination, biomarkers, questionnaire  Funded by NHMRC project grants

6. Methods N: 7438 women, 6053 men Age: 71 to 79 years Outcome: deaths from all causes Follow-up: 10 year

7. WomenMen Age (years) 71-731 ref1 74-761.47 (1.20, 1.79)1.65 (1.46, 1.87) 77-792.07 (1.64, 2.51)2.47 (2.16, 2.84) Smoking status Never smoked1 ref1 Ex-smoker1.45 (1.29, 1.63)1.54 (1.35, 1.75) Current smoker2.33 (1.85, 2.93)2.68(.19, 3.29) BMI (kg/m 2 ) Normal(18.5 to <25)1 ref1 Overweight (25 to <30)0.82 (0.72, 0.92)0.87 (0.77, 0.99) Obese (≥30)1.03 (0.88, 1.21)0.98 (0.83, 1.15) Alcohol consumption Weekly or more1 ref1 Less than weekly1.27 (1.12, 1.44)1.23 (1.10, 1.38) Physical activity (MET.minutes/week) None/low (<600)1 ref1 Moderate/high (≥600)0.66 (0.58, 0.74)0.68 (0.61, 0.76) Constant (not exp) -1.76(-1.98, -1.53)-1.07(-1.24, -0.90) Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each sex separately; logistic regression for death within 10 years

8. Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models. Age: 71-73 years WomenMen Alcohol consumption ≥weekly<weekly≥weekly<weekly Physical activity (MET.mins/week) PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600 SmokingBMI Never smokerNormal1015131819262230 Overweight812101517232027 Obese1015131819252229 Ex-smokerNormal1420172427353139 Overweight1217152124322836 Obese1420182526343039 Current smokerNormal2129253439484453 Overweight1825212936454050 Obese29 263438484353 <20%20-39%40-59%≥60%

9. Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models. Age: 74-76 years WomenMen Alcohol consumption ≥weekly<weekly≥weekly<weekly Physical activity (MET.mins/week) PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600 SmokingBMI Never smokerNormal1420172428363241 Overweight1217152125332938 Obese1521182528363241 Ex-smokerNormal1927233237474252 Overweight1623202834433948 Obese2027243237464251 Current smokerNormal2837334351605665 Overweight2432293848575362 Obese2838334351605665 <20%20-39%40-59%≥60%

10. Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models. Age: 77-79 years WomenMen Alcohol consumption ≥weekly<weekly≥weekly<weekly Physical activity (MET.mins/week) PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600 SmokingBMI Never smokerNormal1926233137464251 Overweight1622192734433848 Obese1926233136454151 Ex-smokerNormal2534303947575262 Overweight2129263444534958 Obese2534304047565261 Current smokerNormal3545405161706674 Overweight3040364658676371 Obese3546415260696573 <20%20-39%40-59%≥60%

11. Conclusions Overall the risks of death were high, almost all exceeding 10% for women and 20% for men Risks were substantially higher for men than women For both sexes risk was highest those who: were in the oldest age group smoked did not drink alcohol weekly or more reported little physical activity

12. Please visit our website for more details on our project http://www.menwomenandageing.org