1. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities Georgia-Russia relations: Challenges and opportunities Archil Gegeshidze Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies Tartu, 28 January 2011

2. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 2 Outline of the lecture 1.Evolution of the confrontation 2.Georgia’s meaning for Russia 3.The August 2008 war: causes and implications 4.Limits to Russian power 5.Bilateral relations: current balance sheet 6.Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia 7.What the future holds?

3. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 3 Evolution of the confrontation Aspects of post-Soviet relationships History Psychology Geopolitics The ‘Putin (Medvedev) factor’

4. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 4 Georgia’s meaning for Russia Georgia serves as kind of a valve that, if under control, allows Russia to prevent penetration of Turkish influence into the North Caucasus, as well as further to the East into the Central Asia.

5. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 5 Georgia’s meaning for Russia Control over Georgia provides for Russia a leverage to rule out any possibility of future NATO expansion from Turkey into the Caspian.

6. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 6 Georgia’s meaning for Russia Control over Georgia would allow Russia to obstruct the progress of the East-West energy corridor, as well as to hinder the penetration into the Caspian of western investment.

7. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 7 Georgia’s meaning for Russia Control over Georgia would ease the task for Russia to prevent increasingly disobedient national republics in the North Caucasus from falling out of jurisdiction of the Federal Government. DISINTEGRATION

8. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 8 Georgia’s meaning for Russia Sevastopol Batumi ? ? 475 km 2935 km of coastline under Soviet control

9. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 9 Georgia’s meaning for Russia 220 km

10. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 10 Georgia’s meaning for Russia Russia’s fears if Georgia succeeds Separatist movement will intensify in the North Caucasus A precedent of providing conditions for swift development under Western security guarantees will arise in the CIS space, including the South Caucasus, which will further shake Russia’s already shaken authority and influence The strengthening of Georgia-US security co- operation and Georgia’s accession to NATO will further enhance US influence in the South Caucasus which might proliferate throughout the CIS and elsewhere in Eurasia

11. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 11 Georgia’s meaning for Russia Russia’s fears if Georgia succeeds US military bases and NATO anti-missile systems may be deployed in Georgia as it is likely to happen in some Eastern European countries The transit attractiveness of Georgia and the whole of the South Caucasus will be increased in regards to transportation of Caspian energy to Western markets thereby to a certain extent lessening Europe’s energy dependence on Russia.

12. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 12 The August 2008 war: Causes and implications Dimensions of conflict Georgian-Abkhaz / Georgian-Ossetian confrontation Georgian-Russian confrontation Russia-West standoff

13. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 13 The August 2008 war: Causes and implications Immediate causes Russian trap Georgia’s blunders Stubbornness of the de facto administrations in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali Idleness of the West

14. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 14 The August 2008 war: Causes and implications Implications Territorial reunification indefinitely postponed Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s independence recognized by Russia Rapidly increasing Russian influence in the occupied territories Georgian territories occupied NATO accession tabled off

15. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 15 Limits to Russian power Decline in Russian growth Source: Russian Analytical Digest, #88, p. 4

16. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 16 Limits to Russian power

17. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 17 Limits to Russian power Russia in international comparison: R&D expenditure as % of GDP (2005-2007) Source: Russian Analytical Digest, #88, 29 November 2010

18. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 18 Limits to Russian power Gross domestic expenditure on R&D (%GDP) and number of researchers (Thsd.) (1990-2009) Source: Russian Analytical Digest, #88, 29 November 2010

19. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 19 Limits to Russian power Russia’s demographic map

20. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 20 Limits to Russian power Average monthly per capita income, Russian federal districts 2009

21. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 21 Limits to Russian power Explosive North Caucasus

22. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 22 Limits to Russian power Military maladies Ageing equipment Declining number of conscripts Poor health and education of potential conscripts Corruption, crime and casualties in peacetime military Lack of consensus on the proper military doctrine Financial crisis

23. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 23 Limits to Russian power Russia-West Reset

24. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 24 Limits to Russian power U.S. assistance to Georgia 2006-2011

25. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 25 Georgia-Russia: Balance sheet Liabilities: Incompatibility of national projects; Status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, New Status Quo; Broken intergovernmental instruments/channels of dialogue; Absence of the willingness to restore these mechanisms mainly on Russian side.

26. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 26 Georgia-Russia: Balance sheet Assets: Absence of phobia between the peoples (Georgian diaspora in Russia); Huge potential of mutually beneficial economic co-operation; Two Churches willing to contribute; Readiness of international community to facilitate this dialogue.

27. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 27 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia

28. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 28 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia

29. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 29 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia

30. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 30 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia

31. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 31 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia Would you approve or disapprove marrying the following nationality?

32. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 32 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia Respondent’s foreign language teaching preference in secondary schools

33. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 33 What future holds? Happenings for the foreseeable future Possible: Establishment of the dialogue on the civil society level; Russia realizing part of its ‘soft power’ such as visa facilitation/lifting embargo/restoration of transport links. Russia meeting some of the Sarkozy-Medvedev Plan commitments; Georgia signing Agreement on non-resumption of hostilities; IDPs returned to Akhalgori and Kodori

34. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 34 What future holds? Happenings for the foreseeable future Possible / unlikely: Restoration of diplomatic relations Establishment of direct/uncontrolled talks between the GoG and the de facto administrations;

35. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 35 What future holds? Happenings for the foreseeable future Impossible: Reversal of New Status Quo; Georgia recognizing independence of Abkhazia/South Ossetia; Georgia abandoning pro-Western orientation

36. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 36 What future holds? Impossible: Reversal of New Status Quo; Georgia recognizing independence of Abkhazia/South Ossetia; Georgia abandoning pro-Western orientation (the war didn’t change public attitudes)

37. Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 37 What future holds? Bottomline National projects remain incompatible, i.e. source of confrontation will remain “Strategic patience” Search for modus vivendi

38. END OF THE PRESENTATION THANK YOU ARCHIL GEGESHIDZE Senior fellow, GFSIS 3a, Chitadze St., Tbilisi 0108 Georgia gegeshidze@gfsis.org