2. Do Arms Races Lead to Wars? LSE400 16 January 2015

3. Sir Edward Grey, 1926 ‘The enormous growth of armaments in Europe, the sense of insecurity and fear caused by them – it was these that made war inevitable. This, it seems to me, is the truest reading of history, and the lesson that the present should be learning from the past, in the interests of future peace, the warning to be handed on to those who come after us.’

4. PRC/US Military Balance

5. Richardson Model dx/dt = ay – mx + r dy/dt = bx – ny + s dx/y = defence spending by country x/y over time a and b = fear m and n = economic fatigue/restraint r and s = grievance/ambition/revenge

6. Definition ‘…intense competition between Powers or groups of Powers, each trying to obtain an advantage in military power by increasing the quantity or improving the quality of its armaments or armed forces…’ (Hedley Bull, 1961)

7. Causes and Consequences Causes/Drivers: - technological imperative - domestic (military-industrial complex) - external threat (action-reaction) Termination: - agreement (tacit/explicit); diversion; exhaustion - violence (especially if linked to power transition)

9. Anglo-German Naval Race

11. Naval Race Timeline 1898/1900 German Navy Laws 1904/05 British Naval Redeployment 1906 HMS Dreadnought 1908 German Dreadnought Law 1908/1909 Acceleration Crisis 1912 German Reorientation

12. Land Arms Race, 1910-14

13. Europe in 1914

15. Land Race Timeline 1910 Russian Military Reorganization 1912 German and Austrian Army Laws 1913 German Army Law; French Three-Year Law 1913 Franco-Russian Railway Agreement 1914 Russian ‘Great Programme’

16. Europe, 1933-39

17. Europe in 1939

19. Cold War

21. US and Soviet Spending

22. Cold War Delivery Systems

25. Chinese D21 Missiles

26. Post-Cold War Arms Spending (SIPRI - $mn constant, 2011) US 1990: 527,174; 2000: 394,155; 2003: 507,781; 2010: 720,282; 2013: 618,681 PRC 1990: 19,820; 2000: 37,040; 2003: 57,390; 2010: 136,239; 2013: 171,831 SU/Russia 1990: 291,082; 1998: 20,800; 2003: 39,100; 2010: 65,807; 2013: 84,864 UK 1990: 58,824; 1999: 46,775; 2003: 57,005; 2009: 64,297; 2013: 56,231

28. Post- Cold War Armaments