1. Maryland’s Changing Demographics Leadership Challenge XV June 13, 2006 Presented by Mark Goldstein Maryland Department of Planning

2. Demographic Topics Statewide look at pop change by race & Hispanic Origin Foreign born population Pop change by race & Hispanic origin by jurisdiction Age data

3. Data Sources Decennial Census Data, 1990 & 2000 Post 2000 Census Population Estimates, 2000 – 2004

4. Data Definition Minority is everyone who is NOT non-Hispanic White Includes African Americans, Asians & Pacific Islanders, American Indians, Multi-Race and Hispanics Hispanics are an ETHNIC and not a RACIAL minority. Hispanics can be of any race, but in Maryland most (over 90%) are white

5. Growth in Non-Hispanic White & Minority Population in Maryland,1980-1990 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data, 1990 MARS and 2000 Modified Race data 36% 64%

6. Growth in Non-Hispanic White & Minority Population in Maryland, 1990 - 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data, 1990 MARS and 2000 Modified Race data

7. Growth in Non-Hispanic White & Minority Population in Maryland, 2000 - 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data, 2000 Modified Race data & population estimates, 2004

8. Net Domestic Migration For Maryland, 1995 - 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Dept of Planning, Planning Data Services from Census 2000 Migration DVD

9. Population Change for Maryland by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

10. Share of 1990 – 2000 Pop Change for Maryland

11. Population Change for Maryland by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

12. Share of 2000 – 2004 Pop Change for Maryland

13. Maryland Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

14. Maryland Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 2000 MARs

15. Maryland Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

16. Foreign Born Population Totals Over the Decades Distribution Impact on Population Growth Origin of the Foreign Born Ability to Speak English

17. Foreign-Born Entering Maryland by Decade Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

18. Foreign-Born Entering Maryland by Decade* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 213,500 * For 2000s, estimates for 2000-2004 and extrapolation to 2010

19. Total Foreign Born in Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from Decennial Census data and 2004 ACS

20. Foreign Born as a Pct of Total Population in Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Decennial Census and ACS

21. Where Foreign-Born Settled During the 1990s Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

22. Where Foreign-Born Settled During the 1980s Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

23. “Rest” of the 1980s Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

24. “Rest” of the 1990s Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

25. Total Foreign Born in Maryland by Jurisdiction – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

26. Foreign Born as a Percent of Total Population – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

27. Components of Population Change, 1990 – 2000, Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

28. Components of Population Change, 1990 – 2000, Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

29. Components of Population Change for Montgomery County, 1990 – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

30. Components of Population Change for Prince George’s County, 1990 – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

31. Components of Population Change for Baltimore County, 1990 – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

32. Components of Population Change for Howard County, 1990 – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

33. Components of Migration for Baltimore City, 1990 – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

34. Origin of the Foreign Born in Maryland ( Entered 1990 – 2000 ) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 34.8%33.0% 16.2% 14.0%

35. Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

36. Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Maryland (cont.) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

37. Origin of the Foreign Born in Montgomery ( Entered 1990 – 2000 ) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 35.6% 34.8% 14.8% 13.1%

38. Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Montgomery County Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

39. Origin of the Foreign Born in Prince George’s ( Entered 1990 – 2000 ) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 48.0% 25.2%21.4%

40. Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Prince George’s County Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

41. Origin of the Foreign Born in Baltimore County ( Entered 1990 – 2000 ) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 38.8% 29.1%16.8% 13.4%

42. Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Baltimore County Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

43. Origin of the Foreign Born in Howard County ( Entered 1990 – 2000 ) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 52.2% 18.2% 16.5%

44. Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Howard County Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

45. Number in Maryland Who Speak English “Not Well or Not at All” Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

46. Maryland Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 111,256 total 53.3% 24.3% 19.4%

47. Maryland Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

48. Montgomery Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 52.8% 28.3% 16.2%

49. Montgomery Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

50. Prince George’s Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 73.3% 14.0% 8.8%

51. Baltimore Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 40.4% 28.6% 27.0%

52. Baltimore Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

53. Population Change by Race and Hispanic Origin for Jurisdictions Total Change –1990 – 2000 –2000 - 2004 Share of Total Pop –1990 –2004

54. Percent Minority Population - 1990

55. Percent Minority Population - 2000

56. Percent Minority Population - 2004

60. Pct Point Change in Minority Population Share, 1990 -2004

62. Population Change for Montgomery Co. by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

63. Population Change for Montgomery Co. by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

64. Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

65. Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

66. Population Change for Prince George’s Co. by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only Influence of migration from Wash, D.C.

67. Population Change for Prince George’s Co. by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. Continued loss of white pop; relatively stronger growth in Hispanics – nearly equal to previous 10-yr. growth

68. Prince George’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

69. Prince George’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

70. Population Change for Charles County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only Nearly 90 % of gain is minority growth

71. Population Change for Charles County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. Growth is entirely minority. In four years nearly equal to previous 10 for AA

72. Charles County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs Over ¾ white; less than 1/5 AA

73. Charles County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates White share less than 60%; AA share approaching 1/3

74. Population Change for Baltimore County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only AA - Influence of migration from Baltimore City

75. Population Change for Baltimore County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. Nearly same pattern; but Hispanic growth nearly equal to previous 10 years

76. Baltimore County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

77. Baltimore County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Whites < 70%; AA approaching 1/4 ; Asians & Hispanics < 5 %

78. Population Change for Harford Co. by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only White growth 5.6/1 to AA growth

79. Pop Change for Harford County by Race Hispanic & Origin, 2000–2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. White growth now 1.9 to 1 to AA growth. Hispanic growth =previous 10-year gain

80. Harford County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

81. Harford County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Change in shares about equal to previous 10 years for whites, a bit more for AA

82. Population Change for Frederick County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only Overwhelmingly white. Ratio of white to AA = 7.6 to 1

83. Population Change for Frederick County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. White share much smaller than previous 10 years (78% vs. 55%). AA change almost as much; Hispanic > previous 10 years

84. Frederick County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

85. Frederick County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates White share drops almost as much as in previous 10 years (3.5 vs. 4.1)

86. Population Change for Carroll County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only Overwhelmingly white gain (94%)

87. Population Change for Carroll County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. Still mostly white, but less so (79.5%). AA & Hispanic increase greater than in previous 10 years

88. Carroll County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

89. Carroll County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

90. Population Change for Howard County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only White is largest increase but less than ½ of total increase (48.2%)

91. Population Change for Howard County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. White gain now fourth largest

92. Howard County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

93. Howard County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates White share drops another 4.4 pct pts., Increase spread out

94. Age Data Arrest rates by age and gender Pop Distribution by Age and Race

95. U.S. Arrest Rates by Age and Gender - 2004 (per 10,000 population) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, using arrest statistics from the FBI (Crime in the U.S. in 2004), and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates

96. 2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

97. 2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

98. 2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

99. 2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

100. Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

101. Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004, Males 15-19 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

102. Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004, Males 20-24 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

103. Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004, Males 25-29 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

104. 2004 Percent Minority by Age Group for Montgomery County Source: Census Bureau Population Estimates

105. Summary – A Few Key Points Maryland is a diverse state and one that is becoming more diverse over time This diversity is being promoted by net out- migration of non-Hispanic whites, in- migration of African Americans and steady and significant foreign immigration

106. Summary – A Few Key Points Foreign immigration plays a major role in population growth in the State in general, and an even larger role for particular counties Although the minority population is growing in 19 out of 24 jurisdictions, it is not uniform as to its race/ethnic makeup

107. Summary – A Few Key Points In many jurisdictions, growth in Asians and Hispanics over the 2000-2004 period nearly matches, or exceeds, growth over the previous 10 years Spanish speakers are the largest share of those that have trouble speaking English, although this can vary by jurisdiction.

108. Summary – A Few Key Points In almost all cases, minority population is younger than the non-Hispanic white population As a result, minority share of the population in key crime age cohorts will be larger than their share of the general population

109. Thank You….. Mark Goldstein mgoldstein@mdp.state.md.us