1. US-Russian Relations: Nuclear Arms Race and Disarmament
Matt Rosenstein Associate Director
Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security (ACDIS) at UIUC
Modified by: Kevin Sacerdote Mandarin High School Jacksonville, FL

3. What Hath We Wrought?
Only country in the world to carry out a nuclear attack?
United States, on Japan, WWII
Hiroshima (August 6, 1945) and Nagasaki (August 9, 1945)
Fat Man and Little Boy

4. Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Estimated that between 115, ,000 were killed immediately
Twice as many more died over time (radiation poisoning)
95% of deaths were civilian

5. Nuclear Shadows Before & After The Bomb

6. Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Little Boy: 13,000 tons of TNT equivalent
Most nuclear warheads today: yield between 150 kiloton-1 megaton
“Tsar bomba”: Soviets exploded a 50-megaton bomb in test (1961)
Spasm attack by US or USSR would result in million Soviet and million US deaths (RAND, 1960)

7. US and Soviet Nuclear Strategic Forces, 1950-2000
US USSR/Russia
Year Launchers Warheads Launchers Warheads
* 84*
1960 1,559 3,
1970 2,100 5,239 1,985 2,216
1980 2, ,608 2,545 7,480
1990 1, ,477 2, ,271
2000 1,407 7,519 1,266 6,094
2005 1,225 5, ,732
Source: Arms Control Association, Fact Sheets (2005) *=1956 totals

8. USSR’s Top Priority Targets (Recognize the Geography?)

9. Both US and USSR created “nuclear triad” forces:
Characteristics of US and Soviet Nuclear Strategic Forces (“Delivery Systems”)
Both US and USSR created “nuclear triad” forces:
Ground (ICBM)
Sea (SLBM)
Air (Bombers)

10. The Arms Race: Why? Territorial integrity and national sovereignty
Ideological struggle
Capitalism vs. communism
Liberal democracy vs. authoritarian rule
Military prowess: nukes as visible symbol of power
USSR could not keep up economically
MAD = Mutually Assured Destruction
Deterrence
Bargaining power / leverage in multilateral bodies

11. US-Russia Arms Race: A Brief Early Chronology
1942 US initiates Manhattan Project
1945 Hiroshima and Nagasaki
1949 Soviet explosion of nuclear device
1957 Sputnik
1962 Cuban Missile Crisis

12. Early US Nuclear War Plan(s) (acc. To The Dead Hand. Pp. 15-24 )
Eisenhower’s: drafted in 1960
“Massive Retaliation”
Overkill-use of 3,500 nuclear weapons against the USSR
John F. Kennedy (and Robert McNamara)
“Counterforce”
At first, Implied a limited Nuclear Strike (aim for weapon storage facilities, not populations or factories)
Later, “Assured Destruction” 20-25% of the population, 50% of the Industry
“Mutual “ was added by Donald Brennan of the Hudson Institute to create the acronym “MAD” (Mutual Assured Destruction)
The USSR does NOT achieve Nuclear Parity with the USA until the late 1960’s/Early 1970’s --- Leads to: Keepin’ Up With the Jones’

13. Arms Control Treaties
BE SURE TO REVIEW THE TYPED INFORMATION ON THE GOPO WEBSITE!!!
Multilateral:
Antarctic Treaty (1959)
Outer Space Treaty (1967)
Outlaws military uses for either area.
Biological Weapons Convention (1972)
Inhumane Weapons Convention (1981)
Outlaws use of chemical weapons, other weapons that could cause undue “collateral damage”

14. Arms Control (cont.) Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (1968)
Prevents transfer of nuclear weapons and/or technology to non-nuclear states.
Limited Test Ban Treaty (1968)
Prohibits testing weapons in atmosphere, outer space, and underwater (later expanded)

15. US-Russia Disarmament: A Brief Chronology
1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty
End of atmospheric testing
“Hotline”
Halt proliferation to other states
SALT I
Set numerical limits on missile launchers (not warheads-->MIRVs)
SALT II
Broader limits than SALT I…but Afghanistan spoiled negotiations (Ratified?)

16. US-Russia Disarmament: A Brief Chronology
1972 ABM Treaty
Limited each to two ABM sites (no nationwide defense)
Prohibited sea-, air-, space-based systems
Limit on qualitative improvement
Problematic: “Star Wars”, US pull-out in
1972 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

17. Arms Controls US/USSR (cont)
Intermediate-range Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty (1987)
Eliminates shorter-range missiles in Europe; allows for onsite inspections
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) (1991)
30% reduction in total nuclear arsenal.

18. US-Russia Disarmament: A Brief Chronology
1991 START I Treaty
Negotiated almost 10 years
Reductions in launchers (max. 1,600) and warheads (max. 6,000)
1993 START II Treaty
Further reductions; never ratified by US Senate and Russian Duma

19. Soviet Nuclear Assets at Time of Break-Up
Major Destruction & Dismantlement Site
Chemical Weapons & Support Facility
SSBN Base
ICBM Base (Silo)
Mobile ICBM Base
Production Facilities
Non deployed ICBMs
Heavy Bombers
Kazakhstan
Russia
Ukraine
Belarus
ICBMs:
ICBM Launcher Pads:
Warheads: 94 54
~225
ICBM Launchers:
HBs:
Warhead:
258
176 36
~1,984
SLBMs:
Warheads::
1,340
1,924 87
~11,296
115
104 40
~1,462

20. Bioweapons Programs
1960s: both US and USSR were developing bio-weapons programs (US stockpiled tularemia bacteria, anthrax, a Venezuelan equine encephalomyelitis virus (dried and liquid), and other “items”
1972: BWC: US, USSR (other actors, such as UK) agreed to halt bio-weapons research
1992: Russian scientists reported work with smallpox from 1970s-1990s (felt the USA was also cheating- Dead Hand ( by David Hoffman) claims most of the US stockpile was destroyed in 1973 pp )
Bio-Program cheaper than nukes (Bacteria = Prefix “L” and Viruses = Prefix “N”)
Worked with Plague (L1), Tularemia(L2), Brucellosis (L3), Anthrax 836 (L4), Smallpox (Variola) (N1), Ebola (N2), Marburg (N3), Tularemia(L2), and others in large quantities
Various research efforts: aerosolizing the virus; placed on ballistic missile warheads…

21. Biological Weapons (acc. To Hoffman’s Dead Hand)
Covertly, USSR built the largest biological weapons program in the world
Experimentations with genetic engineering to create pathogens that would cause unstoppable diseases
Unstoppable diseases not considered a “battlefield weapon” (p. 14)

22. After the Soviet Break-Up: Proliferation and “Brain Drain”
Concerns over safeguarding nuclear technologies and materials
Dysfunctional military: command and control?
~150,000 scientists, engineers, technicians employed in weapons-related work
1990s economic crisis meant low wages (or back wages owed…) --> “nuclear entrepreneurs”
Sell their knowledge?Seek employment in countries with nuclear aspirations?

23. Cooperative Threat Reduction in Russia
Silo Launcher Elimination
Heavy Bomber Elimination
Solid Propellant ICBM/SLBM and Mobile Launcher Elimination
Liquid Propellant ICBM/ SLBM Elimination
SS-24/SS-25 Mobile Launcher Elimination
SSBN/SLBM Dismantlement & Elimination

24. Cooperative Threat Reduction in Russia
Keeping out the terrorists at Vector (biotechnology facility, Koltsovo, Russia)…

25. Cooperative Threat Reduction: Accomplishments
More than 6,000 nuclear weapons destroyed
Thousands of launchers, missiles, devices
Removed all weapons from Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan (pp. 440 – 458 of The Dead Hand )
Employed thousands of former weapons scientists
Also destroying chemical and biological weapons
The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and its Dangerous Legacy, by David E. Hoffman (2009, Doubleday Publishing)

26. The ABM Treaty: A Bump in the Road?
In Dec. 2001, Bush administration gave 6-month notice that US would withdraw from treaty
Why? US wants to develop NMD to protect against WMD threats from terrorists, “rogue states”
Putin regime protested vehemently-->felt it would limit their deterrence capabilities (made START II levels undesirable)
Failure of Russian diplomacy?

27. The ABM Treaty: A Bump in the Road?
SORT (Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty), or “Moscow Treaty” signed in May 2002
Cut warheads to 1,700-2,200 by 2012
Ratified in 2003 by Duma and Senate

28. US-Russian Arms Race Legacy: Ongoing Concerns
Potential for technology, materials, knowledge transfers
“Setting a bad example”—weapons stockpiles and fissile materials stocks are disincentives for India, Pakistan, Israel(?), Iran, N. Korea, etc.

29. US-Russian Arms Race Legacy: Ongoing Concerns
Whither the United States?
National Missile Defense
Earth-penetrating nukes, mini-nukes
Nuclear primacy?
Whither Russia?
Superpower nostalgia
Maintain credible deterrence
Relations with China, Iran vs. with US, EU