1. 1 Transbaltic conference 2010 The new geography of freight flows in the Baltic Sea Region Jerome VERNY Associate Professor (transport/logistics) Rouen Business School, France Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route

2. Principal international commercial maritime routes

3. 3 Asia-Europe Market Containerized freight transported on shipping lanes = 21.6 million TEU in 2008 (30% of containerized freight transported on shipping lanes all over the globe)  Annual growth rate of 5-6 % between 2008 and 2015  Annual growth rate of 24 % between 2015 and 2030 (source : HWWI) jerome.verny@rouenbs.fr

4. 4 Limitations of the transport supply While the capacity of ports and ships can be improved,… …the Royal Road will soon reach its limits.  Changes in the spatial distribution of freight flows must be envisaged jerome.verny@rouenbs.fr

5. Some international commercial routes

6. The Northern Sea Route and the Royal Route

7. jerome.verny@rouenbs.fr 7 Pertinence and feasibility of container transport along the NSR -Global warning and progressive lifting of technical constraints on navigation -New geography of places and flows - Feasibility from a cost standpoint.

8. Questions: -Future orientation of the transport and function of the Baltic Sea Region in serving internal and intercontinental flows? -Impact on the transport patterns in the Baltic Sea Region? -Connectivity and accessibility of the territories around the Baltic Sea? Discussion: NSR and opportunities for the Baltic Sea Region

9. jerome.verny@rouenbs.fr 9 Thank you for your attention For more informations : Verny, J. & Grigentin, C., 2009. Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route, International Journal of Production Economics, 122 (1), 107-117

10. jerome.verny@rouenbs.fr 10 Jerome VERNY International young researcher award, 2009 (OECD-ITF, International Transport Forum). Associate Professor (transport/logistics), RBS, France. Founder and CEO, OPAL Conseil Regional development, Operations and Supply Chain Management consulting firm Research interests:. Economic and transport geography. Geographical economics Current projects:. European Transport Policy, sustainable development and regional development (the decoupling between freight transport and economic growth). Transport and globalization (Northern Sea Route, Sea-Air transport)