1. Norway High Speed Rail Michael Hayes Project Director Contract 5: Market Analysis

2. Phase 2: Market Analysis 1. What is the potential market for HSR? 2. How many people would use HSR (and how much revenue) for different options? 3. Where should stations be situated and what facilities should they have? 4. How much freight could use the line? Using experience from across Europe 2

3. 3 1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail Analysis to understand potential market: ● Existing air, road and rail markets ● Improving access to tourist destinations? ● Better access to Gardermoen Airport? Compare with international experience

4. 4 1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail Oslo – Stavanger Air: 1.2m pass/yr Rail: 0.3m pass/yr Road: 1m trips/yr Oslo – Kristiansand Air: 0.5m pass/yr Rail: 0.4m pass/yr Road: 2.6m trips/yr

5. 5 1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail Oslo – Bergen Air: 1.5m pass/yr Rail: 0.6m pass/yr Road: 1.3m trips/yr

6. 6 1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail Oslo – Trondheim Air: 1.5m pass/yr Rail: 0.4m pass/yr Road: 1.4m trips/yr Oslo – Stockholm: Air dominant (0.7m pass/yr) Oslo – Gothenburg: Road dominant (waiting data)

7. 7 1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail European experience: ● HSR captures air markets well, road markets less so. RouteDistance (km) Fastest Journey Time (hr:min) Rail Service Frequency (per day) Approximate HSR Market Share Paris - Marseille7503:031965% London - Paris4952:151670% Cologne - Frankfurt 1861:022995% Madrid - Seville4722:202280%

8. 8 2. Estimating HSR usage ● Assess cost of travelling by each mode ● How do people value different modes?

9. 9 2. Estimating HSR usage Many fundamental questions in forecasting: ● How willing are passengers to pay to save travel time? ● How important are frequency, reliability and station access? ● What impact does group size have on choice of travel? ● Would HSR inherently generate new demand for travel?

10. 10 2. Estimating HSR usage Also need to understand attitudes to HSR: ● Do business travellers value ability to work on trains rather than planes? ● Would amount of tunnels affect leisure market? ● Is reliability an important factor? ● Do people inherently value travelling by HSR more than by plane?

11. 11 2. Estimating HSR usage Market survey exercise being undertaken ● Surveys to understand attitudes for different types of travellers ● Economic analysis to produce forecasting models ● Supplement with sensitivity tests

12. 12 3. Station Location and Facilities Stavanger Population within 15 minutes Oslo Kristiansand ● How many intermediate stations? ● Where should they be?

13. 13 3. Station Location and Facilities ● Are the existing stations in the right place? ● What kind of facilities do they require?

14. 14 4. Freight ● Is there demand for high speed freight?

15. 15 4. Freight ● Could any HSR route carry normal freight trains?

16. 16 Michael Hayes Head of Rail Planning Euston Tower, 286 Euston Road LONDON NW1 3AT United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7121 2388 Mobile: +44 (0)7857 981 343 Email: michael.hayes@atkinsglobal.com www.atkinsglobal.com