1. Planning and Response in the Aftermath of a Large Crisis: An Agent-Based Informatics Framework Chris Barrett, Keith Bisset, Shridhar Chandan, Jiangzhuo Chen, Youngyun Chungbaek, Stephen Eubank, Yaman Evrenosoglu, Bryan Lewis, Kristian Lum, Achla Marathe, Madhav Marathe, Henning Mortveit, Nidhi Parikh, Arun Phadke, Jeffrey Reed, Caitlin Rivers, Sudip Saha, Paula Stretz, Samarth Swarup, James Thorp, Anil Vullikanti, Dawen Xie Winter Simulation Conference December 10 th, 2013

2. Introduction – Large scale human initiated crisis – Our contributions Agent based informatics framework – Synthetic information system – Computational architecture Studies and results – Major insights – Study: effects of communication availability and behavior on health outcomes Conclusion Presentation outline 1

3. Introduction – Large scale human initiated crisis – Our contributions Agent based informatics framework – Synthetic information system – Computational architecture Studies and results – Major insights – Study: effects of communication availability and behavior on health outcomes Conclusion Presentation outline 2

4. Natural disasters – Freezing rain in metro DC on Sunday (Dec. 8 th, 2013) – This hotel lost Internet access for the whole Monday! – How did it affect your behavior? – Larger scale crises: hurricane, earthquake, tsunami, … Human initiated crises: our focus in this work – E.g. major terrorist attacks – We have limited understanding of them – Important to be prepared for them – Our focus in this work; but our framework also applies to natural crises – We rely on computer simulations in studying them and developing response plans for them Large scale crises 3

5. National Planning Scenario 1 (NPS1) Detonation of a 10 kt improvised nuclear device (IND) Location: -16 th and K street - Washington DC Time: 11:15 EDT Date: May 15, 2006 Published by Department of Homeland Security 4

6. Roadways are filled with rubble. Cell towers within 0.6 miles of GZ are destroyed. A large area around GZ suffers a long term blackout. Most buildings within 1000 meters of GZ are severely damaged. EMP destroys communication networks within ∼ 3 miles of GZ. Intense heat causes numerous fires. (Immediate) 279K deaths; 93K injured. NPS1: Damages 5 Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2010. “Planning Guidance for response to a Nuclear Detonation”. Buddemeier et al., 2011, “National Capital Region: Key Response Planning Factors for the Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism”. Technical Report LLNL-TR-512111, Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Wein et al.. 2010. “Analyzing Evacuation Versus Shelter-in-Place Strategies After a Terrorist Nuclear Detonation”. Risk Analysis 30 (9): 1315–1327.

7. Damage and fallout Red = Complete damageGray Background = power outage area Yellow = No damageYellow Swath = Plume 6

8. Detailed study area (DSA) 7.01 Gray fallout contour at 60 minutes thermal radiation contour at 2.1 calories/cm2

9. We have developed a synthetic information and modeling environment for representing and studying large scale crises We have applied our informatics framework to study a hypothetical scenario and derived many important insights Our contributions 8

10. Introduction – Large scale human initiated crisis – Our contributions Agent based informatics framework – Synthetic information system – Computational architecture Studies and results – Major insights – Study: effects of communication availability and behavior on health outcomes Conclusion Presentation outline 9

11. Synthetic information system Our approach is to combine many sources of data (including procedural information) to synthesize a dataset sufficient for describing the problem. Synthetic populations: demographics, family structure, home locations, daily activity schedules, activity locations, and interaction network for every individual in the region. Synthetic infrastructures: e.g., cell phone base stations and coverage areas, hospital locations and capacities, power substations and capacities, road network, etc. The synthetic information methodology and platform can be applied to many problems. 10

12. Synthetic information system: Data generation 11

13. Event-specific data: Prompt radiation Blast overpressure Thermal fluence Building damage Rubble Fallout plume Synthetic information system: Data sources 12

14. Synthetic information system: Behavior modeling OptionHigh-level description Household Reconstitution Call, text, move towards household members EvacuationMove outside affected region Shelter-seekingShelter in place, or move towards nearest location that provides shelter Healthcare-seekingCall 911, move towards hospital PanicCall 911, run outdoors, move towards hospital (even if uninjured) Aid & AssistTransport hurt individuals to hospital 13

15. Interactions between behavior and infrastructures 14

16. Synthetic information system: Data flow 15

17. Computational architecture and scale 16

18. Introduction – Large scale human initiated crisis – Our contributions Agent based informatics framework – Synthetic information system – Computational architecture Studies and results – Major insights – Study: effects of communication availability and behavior on health outcomes Conclusion Presentation outline 17

19. Small improvement in communication networks has disproportionately large and positive impact on the overall behavior, leading to fewer deaths, better health outcomes and reduction in panic.. The 2-3 day problem is different than 2-3 week problems which is different than.... This implies that the problem changes, leading to changes in the kinds of things we will need to represent in our behavioral models as well as policies. Despite the huge physical event, human behaviors & their adaptations are important to represent. It allows us to drive the 2-3 week problem. The power network suffers a huge loss. Large portions of the network will likely be inoperative for at least two years. The economic consequences of the detonation are such that it is not a regional problem – it has direct effects on national economic planning and macroeconomics. Large-scale spatio-temporal patterning of behavior emerges from interactions between individuals and between infrastructures and individuals. Major insights from studies 18

20. Study effects of the following on health outcomes: Partial restoration of communication (mobile phone coverage) in regions close to ground zero – Initially 0% coverage within 1 mile; 100% otherwise – Restored to 50% capacity within 3 hours in 0.6~1 mile ring Shelter-seeking behavior with emergency broadcast received (EBR) Example study: settings Cell 1: no restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.1 Cell 2: 50% restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.1 Cell 3: no restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.9 Cell 4: 50% restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.9 19

21. Cells 3 vs 1: no much difference Cells 2 vs 1: communication restoration helps Cells 4 vs 3: communication helps much more with better shelter-seeking behavior Example study: Difference on health outcomes b/w cells Cell 1 no restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.1 Cell 2 50% restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.1 Cell 3 no restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.9 Cell 4 50% restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.9 Lower is better 20

22. Cells 4 vs 3: communication helps decreasing exposure and injury – During early hours, more people seek shelter; – less people panic or search for family members Example study: Behavior changes due to communication restoration Cell 1 no restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.1 Cell 2 50% restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.1 Cell 3 no restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.9 Cell 4 50% restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.9 Cell 4 – Cell 3 21

23. Cells 2 vs 1: communication helps decreasing exposure and injury even with low shelter seeking preference – During early hours, less people panic or search for family members; – increase in all other behaviors; aid&assist helps the most. Example study: Behavior changes due to communication restoration Cell 1 no restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.1 Cell 2 50% restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.1 Cell 3 no restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.9 Cell 4 50% restoration Pr(shelter| EBR) = 0.9 Cell 2 – Cell 1 22

24. Synthetic information framework and computing architecture – HPC based; scalable for large scale crises – Co-evolving individual and population behaviors, and their complex relationship with civil infrastructures Study of a hypothetical scenario as a demonstration – Detonation of an improvised nuclear device in DC – Spatial, temporal, and individual level details – Counter-factual experiments show that targeted interventions can significantly improve outcomes in terms of human health Conclusion 23

25. Acknowledgments Collaborators: - Mike Snow, Jian Lu, Mandy Wilson: VBI CCF - Ryan Quint, Yaman Evrenosoglu, Arun Phadke, James Thorp: Electrical Engineering, Virginia Tech. Expertise in Power Networks - Jeff Reed: Electrical Engineering, Virginia Tech. Expertise in Communication Networks - Nishith Tripathi, Award Solutions. Expert in Communication Networks - Dane Webster: School of Visual Arts, Virginia Tech. Expertise in Visualization and Graphics - Thomas Dickerson and Peter Sforza: CGIT, Virginia Tech. Expertise in GIS. NDSSL: Staff: Abhijin Adiga, Chris Barrett, Keith Bisset, Jiangzhuo Chen, Youngyun Chungbaek, Stephen Eubank, Annette Feng, Kevin Hall, Kathy Laskowski, Bryan Lewis, Kristian Lum, Achla Marathe, Madhav Marathe, Bill Marmagas, Henning Mortveit, Paula Stretz, Samarth Swarup, Anil Vullikanti, Dawen Xie, Mina Youssef Students: Shridhar Chandan, José Jiménez, Junwhan Kim, Akshay Maloo, Nidhi Parikh, Guanhong Pei, Caitlin Rivers, Sudip Saha, Balaaji Sunapanasubbiah 24