1. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

2. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS TYPHOONS FLOODS LANDSLIDES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE

3. THE TECTONIC PLATES

5. REGIONAL MAP

6. EARTHQUAKES EARTHQUAKES OCCUR FREQUENTLY IN THE JAPAN AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX INTERACTIONS OF THE PHILIPPINE AND EURASIAN PLATES

7. Japan’COMMUNITIESJapan’COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS QUAKE HAZARDS BLDG. INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

8. INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

9. SOME OF JAPAN’S NOTABLE EARTHQUAKE EXPERIENCES 1923 JUNE 16, 1964 JANUARY 17, 1995 MARCH 11, 2011

10. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR THE INEVITABLE GROUND SHAKING IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

11. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

12. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL NATURAL HAZARDS CAPACITY FOR INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

13. THE GREAT KANTO EARTHQUAKE: SEPT 1, 1923 The Mw7.9 Great Kanto earthquake, the worst in Japanese history, struck the Kanto Plain near Tokyo in 1923 and resulted in the deaths of 140,000 people. The fiery conflagration that followed the earthquake was more deadly than the earthquake’s ground shaking.

14. THE NIIGATA EARTHQUAKE: JUNE 16, 1964 The M7.5 Niigata earthquake devastated Niigata, located 50 km south of the epicenter, mainly as a result of massive soil failure and tsunami waves. Although the quake only left 36 dead or missing and 385 injured, the material damage was great: 3,534 houses destroyed, 11,000 houses damaged.

15. THE GREAT HANSHIN (KOBE) EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995 The M6.8 Kobe devastated Kobe. Ground shaking and fires together destroyed over 150,000 buildings and left about 300,000 people homeless, 6,434 dead, 415,000 injured, and economic losses of $200 billion

20. THE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995 The M9.0 Tojoku earthquake was huge, but its ground shaking did NOT cause the disaster that killed an estimated 21,000 people … The tsunami generated by the earthquake did!

21. TOHOKU QUAKE: THE RESULT OF PLATE TECTONICS

22. AN OFFSHORE EPICENTER It only took seconds for the P- and S-waves to reach Sendai, and about 15 minutes for the tsunami waves, but what a difference in damage..

23. THE GROUND SHAKING Strong ground shaking lasted 300 seconds (compared with about 10 - 20 seconds for the 1995 Kobe, Japan quake). But, the ground shaking did not cause the disaster this time; the tsunami did.

24. TOHOKU: SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS The earthquake ground shaking and the tsunami wave run up together caused major damage to 1.2 million buildings. Simultaneously, wide spread fires burned out of control. Economic losses were estimated at $574 billion.

25. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL NATURAL HAZARDS CAPACITY FOR RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

26. WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT EARTH- QUAKE DISASTER FOR JAPAN A difficult question, but --- It is one that was being asked before the March 11, 2011 TOHOKU earthquake disaster.

27. LOCATION OF TOKAI

28. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS The Nankai trough marks the boundary where the Philippines tectonic plate is subducting beneath Japan (part of the Eurasian plate).

29. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS The section along Tokai has not ruptured since 1854.

30. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS The recurrence interval of large- magnitude earthquakes along this boundary is believed to be 100-150 years

31. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS At present, the land near Shizuoka is sinking toward the Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr. Japan’s Earthquake Research Institute is on record that the Tokai earthquake could happen anytime.

32. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE Before the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the Government of Japan expected its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake.”

33. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE The precise area along the Pacific coast- about 160 km (100 mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is expected to be affected has been delineated by scientific studies, And, by law, this area is the focus of intensive preparations.

34. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning people have, the time of day when it occurs, and the tsunami.

35. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE Estimated property damage –- as much as $310 billion.

36. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations Structures susceptible to quake-related fires – 58,402 specific houses

37. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE The Government of Japan has an “early warning action plan based on the concept of “pre-slip.” Pre-slip is based on laboratory experiments, which indicate that a rock slips for a short time before it ultimately fails and generates a big quake.

38. MONITORING: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE The Government of Japan is currently deploying strain meters throughout the Tokai area to record the slip in order to provide as much advance warning as possible.