1. Relevance of Transport Measures to Abate Air Pollution in Cairo Alan Gertler Division of Atmospheric Sciences Desert Research Institute Reno, NV

2. Presentation Outline Background – Where I left you on Tuesday – CAIP objectives Source Attribution Results Control Measures – What can be done? Emissions inventory – need to verify! Summary

3. Tuesday’s Take Home Message All of Greater Cairo suffers from high levels of air pollution. PM 10 is dominated by soil dust material, open burning, and mobile source emissions. PM 2.5 is dominated by mobile source emissions, open burning, and secondary species. Smelters are the dominant source of airborne lead. Sources other than transportation activities need to be addressed.

4. CAIP Objectives Improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions from cars. – Instituted an I/M program. Reduce particulate emissions from buses. – Imported CNG buses. Reduce airborne lead and PM emissions from smelters. – Shutdown and moved smelters. Institute an air quality monitoring and analysis program. – 36 sites but only PM and Pb. Initiate a public awareness and communications program. – Website and other activities Identify and implement additional initiatives to support air pollution reductions in Cairo. – Source attribution study, episode forecasting, training.

5. PM 10 Source Apportionment – Winter/Fall 1999

6. PM 2.5 Source Apportionment – Winter/Fall 1999

7. 2002 PM 10 Source Attribution Results

8. 2002 PM 2.5 Source Attribution Results

9. What Measures Could Be Quickly Implemented? Garbage collection – would reduce open burning. Industrial controls – Implement new industrial technologies. – Switch from burning mazout (heavy oil). Reduce secondary PM precursors such as NO x, SO 2, NH 3, Cl.

10. The Transportation Contribution is Still Important! Direct tailpipe emissions are < 25% of the PM 10 (~ 60 u/m 3 ) and < 50% of the PM 2.5 in the most extreme cases (El Qualaly). Road dust and the NO x and SO 2 contribution to secondary species contributions cannot be neglected. When these are considered, the mobile source contribution is >50% for PM 10 and PM 2.5.

11. What Transportation Measures Should be Implemented? Implementing transportation control measures is critical to obtain healthy air quality levels – START NOW. Cairo can learn from the experiences of other Megacities: – Verify effectiveness of I/M program and, if necessary, modify. – Expand and maintain the fleet of CNG buses. – Regulate emissions from diesel vans commonly used for passenger transportation. – Encourage newer technology light- and heavy-duty vehicles. – Better quality fuel. – Develop market mechanisms to reduce congestion. – Expand the road system (especially across the Nile). – Address problem of resuspended road dust (road paving, etc.)

12. Other Suggestions Address lack of enforcement of current regulations. Convince the government there is a problem. (There is a frequent turnover of upper level administrators.) Measure gas phase pollutants.

13. Additional Issue – Mobile Source Inventory Verify the emissions inventory. US experience: mobile source emission factor models often underestimate emissions. Tunnel studies have shown that CO and HC can be underestimated by a factor of 2 to 4, while correctly predicting NO x. Recent changes in the models can lead to an overestimate of emissions. If the model predicts the observations, it is probably for the wrong reasons.

14. Summary The Cairo case differs significantly from the Mexico City situation – It’s much worse. There is a need to address garbage burning and industrial emissions. Transportation measures are important for future attainment. There are few measurements of gaseous species (for example, no O 3 measurements). Verify effectiveness and implementation of control strategies. Evaluate the emissions inventory – especially the mobile source component.

15. Acknowledgements Sponsor: – USAID – Chemonics, Intl. – Egyptian Env. Affairs Agency CAIP Personnel – David Fratt – Jim Howes – Mohammed Hassan – Mounir Labib – Many others DRI Personnel – Mahmoud Abu-Allaban – Bill Dippel – Mike Keith – Doug Lowenthal – John Sagebiel – Ricky Tropp – EAF (Judy Chow) and OAL (Barbara Zielinska)