1. APES Chapter 12
Human Populations

2. Key Points
How is population size affected by birth, death, fertility, and migration rates?
How is population size affected by the percentage of males and females at each age level?
How can population growth be slowed?
What successes have India and China had in slowing population growth?
How can global population growth be reduced?

3. Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Three factors influence population growth
Births, deaths, and migration.
Population change calculated by
population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)
Instead of using total numbers they use crude birth rate (number of live births per 1000 people in a population in a given year) and crude death rate (number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a given year.

4. Average Crude Birth And Crude Death Rates

5. World’s Annual Population Change
Birth rates and death rates are coming down worldwide but death rates are falling faster than birth rates and therefore we are increasing in size. (approximately 216,000 new people each day, most in LDC’s)
Rate of world’s annual population change (excluding migration) is expressed as:
Annual rate of natural population change (%) = Birth rate - death rate X 100
1000
= Birth rate – death rate 10

6. Average Annual Rate of Population Change 2002

7. Exponential Growth
Exponential growth has not disappeared but it has slowed down.
It dropped 42% from 1963 at 2.2% to 2002 at 1.28%. This is good!
However the population base increased 94%. This is bad!
This 1.28% increase may seem small but, it adds 79 million people to the world each year.
And with the large base it means 79 million people each year in 2002 whereas in 1963 it was only 69 million!!

8. Average Annual Increase in World’s Population1950-2002 and Projections to 2005

9. World Rates of Population Growth
China (1.28 billion) and India (1 billion) have the largest numbers of people and the largest bases accounting for 37% of the world’s population. (USA is third with 288 million people)

10. Most Populous Countries 2002

11. Changes in Global Fertility Rates
Two types of fertility:
Replacement level fertility: the number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves.
It is slightly higher than 2 children per couple (2.1 in developed countries and 2.5 in developing countries), mostly because some female children die before reaching their reproductive years.

12. Replacement Level Fertility
Does reaching replacement level fertility mean an immediate halt to population growth?
No!! Because so many future parents are alive.
IF each of today’s couples had an average of 2.1 children and their children also had 2.1 children, then the world’s population would continue to grow for 50 years or more (assuming death rates do not rise)

13. Total Fertility Rate
An estimate of the average number of children a woman will have during her childbearing years if between ages 15 and 49 she bears children at the same rate women did this year.
The TFR has dropped since 1950
2002 the global TFR was 2.8 children per woman. LDC’s is 3.1 and MDC’s is 1.6
In 1950 it was 6.5 in LDC’s and 2.5 in MDC’s
This is good progress yet, it is still above the Replacement level fertility

14. Total Fertility Rate

15. Total Fertility Rates in 2002

16. Case Study: How Have Fertility Rates Changed in the United States
U.S. population has grown from 76 million in 1900 to 288 million in 2002 even though the country’s TFR has fluctuated wildly.
Our growth is still faster than any other developed country when include migration
In 2002 we increased 2.9 million: 1.7 million more births than deaths; 900,000 legal immigrants and refugees; and an estimated 300,000 illegal immigrants

17. Total Fertility Rates U.S. 1917-2002

18. Birth Rates in the U.S. From 1910 -2002

19. Factors that Affect Birth Rates and Fertility Rates
Importance of Children as a part of the labor force
Urbanization
Cost of raising and educating children
Educational and employment opportunities for women
Infant mortality rate
Average age at marriage
Availability of private and public pension systems
Availability of legal abortions
Availability of reliable birth control methods
Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

20. Comparison of Basic Demographic Data for U.S., Canada and Mexico

22. Factors Affecting Death Rates
Large increase in the world’s population growth over the past 100 years is not the result of increase in crude birth rate but a decrease in crude death rates.
More people started living longer and few infants died as
Increased food supply and distribution
Better nutrition
Improvements in medical and public health technology
Improved sanitation and personal hygiene
Safer water supplies

23. Indicators of overall health of a people in a country or region
Two factors are good useful indicators of overall health
Life Expectancy: the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live
Infant Mortality Rate: the number of babies out of every 1000 born who die before their 1st birthday.

24. Good News/ Bad News About Life Expectancy
Good news: Life expectancy at birth has increased globally from years (MDC’s to 76 years and LDC’s to 65 years)
Bad news: in the world’s 49 poorest countries, mostly in Africa, the life expectancy is 55 or less. And declining due to AIDS.

25. Why Infant Mortality is the Single Most Important Measure of a Societies Quality of Life
High Infant Mortality Rate usually indicates insufficient food; poor nutrition, and high incidence of infectious disease.
Infant mortality rates have declined since 1965 from 20 per 1000 live births to 7 in MDC’s and from 118 to 60 in LDC’s.

27. Infant Mortality and the U.S.
Between 1900 and 2002 the U.S. infant mortality dropped from 165 to This led directly to the increase in life expectancy.
However even though it is so low the U.S. has 37 other countries with lower Infant Mortality rates
Why is the U.S. rate so high in comparison?
Inadequate health care (mainly for poor women)
Drug addictions among pregnant women
High teenage birth rates

28. Good News/ Bad News About Infant Mortality in the U.S.
Good News: the U.S. birth rate among girls ages 15 – 19 has declined and was at it’s lowest since 1940.
Bad News: The U.S. has the highest teenage pregnancy rate of any industrialized nation; many of them end in abortion and those that actually go full term produce babies with low birth weight.

29. Population Age Structure
The proportion of the population of each sex at each age level.
Three age levels:
Pre-reproductive: 0-14
Reproductive: 15-44
Post-reproductive:

32. How Does Age Structure Affect Population Growth?
When you have a wide base to an age structure (high pre-reproductive 0-14) you have a built in momentum for population growth. (as long as death rates do not rise)
This will continue to support population growth even if the population reaches Replacement Level Fertility.
In 2002, 30% of the population of the World was pre-reproductive.

33. Worldwide Population Age Structure Comparisons
Populations have stabilized in Japan and the European countries yet, population size is expected to double or triple before stabilizing in LDC’s is reached.
We live in a demographically divided world of the haves and have nots.
We can use these age structure diagrams to make economic as well as population projections for the future. As seen through the U.S. age structure and the baby boom over time.

36. Economic Effects of Baby Boomers and Future Generations
With about half the population of the U.S. baby boomers influence:
The goods and services market.
Who is elected and what laws are passed.
Creating a 50 something and 60 something market.
Influence the baby-bust generation (Gen. X) to pay higher taxes (Social Security, health-care, and income) to support baby boomers.

38. Baby Bust and Echo Boom
Baby bust should have things easier in some respects than baby boom such as; opportunities for education, jobs, services, and labor shortages may drive up wages because less people competing.
However; difficult to get job promotions as the baby boomers mature and hold many higher level positions later in life due to advanced health care, later age for Social Security, and need to accumulate retirement funds.
Echo Boom is the largest generation ever and will soon have more economic power than baby boom parents.

39. Some Effects of Population Decline From Reduced Fertility
Increase in the percentage of people over the age of 60.
Increase in social services and health care requirements.
Decrease in the needed worker base to sustain such programs.
By 2050, 39 countries including Japan, Germany, Italy, Hungary and Ukraine will be smaller than today.

40. Effects of Population Decline From Rise in Death Rates
HIV/AIDS kills more young adults while hunger and malnutrition kill the infants and children.
AS the young adults age structure shifts due to the deaths caused by AIDS reslut are:
Drop inaveragelife expectancy
Loss of young adult workers and trained personnel
Ris in the number of orphans
Drop in food production

41. Solutions: Influencing Population Size
Migration is limited in most countries, only Australia, Canada, and U.S. allow large increases each year.

42. Solutions: Influencing Population Size
Birth rates:
Many believe that the earth has already exceeded it’s carrying capacity.
Others believe we may be able to go to 20 billion people. Take the increasing life expectancy as a reason.
How do we sustain the growth of the population without endangering the environment more.
We fail to provide the basic necessities today for one of every six people. How are we going to support 3.9 billion more people by 2050.

43. How Can Economic Development Help Reduce Birth Rates
Demographic Transition

44. Family Planning Reduces Birth Rates and Abortion Rates
Advantages of Family Planning:
Increase the proportion of married women in developing countries who use birth control
50% drop in TFR since 1950
Reducing the number of legal and illegal abortions
Decreasing the risk of death form pregnancy
Unfortunately,
42% of all pregnancies in LDC’s are unplanned and 26% end in abortion.
Many women, million, want to limit the number and determine the spacing of their children, but they lack access to services.

45. Family Planning Reduces Birth Rates and Abortion Rates
Future Goals:
Expanding family planning to include teenagers and sexually active unmarried women who are often excluded.
Pro-choice and por-life groups to join forces in greatly reducing unplanned births and abortions, especially among teenagers
Programs to educate men about having fewer children and taking more responsibility for raising them
Increased research on developing new, more effective, and more acceptable birth control methods for men

46. Empowering Women to Reduce Birth Rates
Women tend to have fewer children when they have access to education and jobs outside the home and live in societies in which their rights are not suppressed.
Most analysts believe that women everywhere should have full legal rights and opportunity to become educated and earn income outside the home.
Not possible without a great deal of social changes in many of the male-dominated societies of today.

47. Economic Rewards and Penalties to Reduce Birth Rates
Many couples in developing countries want 3-4 children, well above RLF.
Analysts suggest that one way to get them to downsize is offer economic rewards or penalties to help slow growth.
About 20 countries offer small payments to people who agree to use contraceptives or to be sterilized, yet many who do this have already had all the kids they want.

48. Economic Rewards and Penalties to Reduce Birth Rates
Some countries penalize couples for having too many kids, like China.
Penalties range from raising taxes, charging fees, or eliminating tax deductions for a couple’s third child (Singapore, Hong Kong, Ghana)
Penalties may also include loss of health care benefits, food allotments, and job opportunities.

49. Economic Rewards and Penalties to Reduce Birth Rates
These work best if
They encourage (rather than coerce) people to have fewer children
Reinforce existing customs and trends toward smaller families
Do not penalize people who produce large families before the programs were established
Increase a poor family’s economic status.

50. Case Study: India India: First family planning program in 1952.
Since then population has still increased.
And they continue to face serious malnutrition, poverty, and environmental damage. ( see list on pages )
Many of it’s proponents are disappointed even though without the program the conditions would be worse. Many problems arose from the family planning program: poor planning, bureaucratic inefficiency, the low status of women( even though guaranteed equality), extreme poverty and lack of administrative support and financial support.

51. Case Study: China
China:Sharp drop in crude birth rate and TFR since 1972 from 5.7 –1.8 children per woman.
However to achieve these goals the dictatorship had to chose between mass starvation, if no control measures were put into place, and coercive measures to limit population growth. They chose very strict and coercive measures!!

52. Case Study: China These population control measures included:
Couples urged to postpone age of marriage and to pledge to have only one child.
Free access to sterilization, contraceptives, and abortion.
Received extra food, larger pensions, better housing, free medical care, salary bonuses, free school tuition and preferential treatment in the employment.

53. Case Study: China
The success of the program has led China to consider allowing the rural families to have a second child to support the growing elderly population in the future.
However the successes are still limited by the environmental impact of over 1 billion people and may reduce the ability to produce enough food and health care for its still growing population.

54. Cutting World Population Growth
In 1994 the third UN Conference on Population and Development was held in Cairo, Egypt.
Goals set forth to be met by 2015 included:
provide universal access to family planning and reproductive health care
Improve health care of infants children and pregnant women
Encourage development and implementation of national population policies as part of social and economic policy
Equality among men and women
Increase access to education for women and girls
Increase involvement of men in childrearing
Take steps to eradicate poverty
Reduce and eliminate unsustainable over consumption

55. Cutting World Population Growth
The goals of Cairo Conference included financial promises to be met by both developing and developed countries
Developing countries were to contribute 17 billion dollars with the developed countries supplying the rest.
However by 2002, the goals were only partially met; 70% by the developing countries and only 40% by the developed countries.

56. Cutting World Population Growth
However, there was a realization that population control can work (Japan, China, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, and Iran).
Within a year time frame you can see achieve RLF.
From these countries and others efforts some of the best ways to control population growth have been discovered:
Investing in family planning
Reducing poverty
elevating the status of women