1. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 1 Decision Support System for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Danish Defence Research Establishment / Technical University of Denmark

2. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 2 Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

3. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 3 Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

4. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 4 Hostile Environment

5. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 5 Project Description To explorer a number of technologies within AI and OR that may be used in designing a DSS for fighter pilots. The DSS is to be used in finding a response to ground based threats.

6. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 6 Requirements Real-time Hardware Updateable Trustworthy Useful User Interface

7. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 7 Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

8. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 8 A Prolog Example %----------------- % Find appropriate countermeasures. %----------------- proper_cm(Angle, jammer) :- ( warning(rwr, (Angle, _)), warning(mws, (Angle, _)), jammer_mode(auto) );( warning(rwr, (Angle, _)), warning(mws, (DiffAngle, _)), Angle \== DiffAngle );( warning(rwr, (Angle, _)), not(warning(mws, (_, _))) ). ”When the jammer is jamming it may influence the RWR and jammers of other aircraft.” “When the jammer is in 'auto' mode, it will jam the RF sources detected.” If the MWS indicates a missile in a given direction, and the RWR does not, the missile is IR guided.

9. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 9 Some Results ”Use flares, chaff, jammer, or towed decoy. Do not use chaff to counter SA-5 and SA-10. Use jammer in auto mode.”

10. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 10 Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

11. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 11 The Bayesian Net

12. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 12 Semi-automatic Population Excel MATLAB desc. MATLAB prog. HUGIN Text file

13. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 13 Structural Learning Fly-In HUGIN (SL) Text file Log file Perl Text file

14. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 14 Some Results

15. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 15 Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

16. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 16 Parameters α ρ

17. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 17 Lethality ScenarioLethality

18. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 18 Deployment Scheme Jammer Decoy Chaff

19. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 19 Reduction of Lethality (α)

20. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 20 Reduction of Lethality (ρ)

21. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 21 Deployment Phases IIIIIIIVV Time OtOt AtAt

22. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 22 Constraints I Time OtOt AtAt Ot’Ot’ O t ’’ T start T end

23. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 23 Constraints II Time AtAt T start OtOt CtCt

24. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 24 Constraints III Time OtOt AtAt Ot’Ot’ O t ’’ T start T end

25. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 25 Scenarios sc1sc2sc3sc4sc5sc6

26. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 26 Running Time

27. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 27 Results

28. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 28 Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

29. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 29 Three Metaheuristics Steepest Ascent Local Search Simulated Annealing

30. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 30 Parameters in SA Algorithm Cooling Schedule Start Temperature End Temperature Acceptance Stopping Criteria Objective Function Neighbourhood Initial Solution

31. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 31

32. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 32 Results

33. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 33 Comparing Metaheuristics

34. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 34 Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

35. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 35 Comparing Approaches I Prolog is easy to use, and easy to model BN is not categorical; it treats probabilities IP ensures the optimal solutions; but is too slow for a real-time DSS A metaheuristic will not necessarily give an optimal solution; but it will find a solution fast

36. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 36 Comparing Approaches II Prolog Bayesian Net Mathematical Model Metaheuristic

37. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 37 Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

38. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 38 Conclusion Four approaches to a DSS for fighter pilots have been implemented All approaches have pros and cons None of the approaches fulfil all requirements More research may find the best technology for developing a DSS for fighter pilots

39. DDRE/DTU AUGUST 2007 39 Decision Support System for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Danish Defence Research Establishment / Technical University of Denmark