1. School-to-work Transitions in a Liberal Economy Alison Wolf King’s College London

2. The Modern Economy Free Trade Free Movement in some regions (notably most of the EU), though heavy restrictions in global context Non-directed labour Minimal industrial policy Shift, in developed world, from fast growth in class 1 and 2 occupations to slow growth/steady state Decline in skilled manual trades – move to the hourglass economy

3. The modern education system Increased average length: completion of upper secondary normal in all developed countries Rapid rise in higher education numbers Delayed specialisation High returns to formal qualifications, absolutely and relatively Wide variations in nature and status of apprenticeship. Full-time ‘vocational’ pathways generally common and rarely high-status pre-18

4. University enrolments at either end of the twentieth century

5. Modern labour markets European countries and Japan marked by dual labour markets: core of full-time jobs with security and high benefits and periphery of low-security, low-paid, short-term jobs North America: more fluid labour market, much less job security, high levels of churn, greater movement in numbers of jobs year on year

6. The specific case of the UK Very low apprenticeship numbers for under- 18s: apprenticeship almost destroyed in 1980s, very partial return to health in 2000s Very high levels of regional inequality General stability in upper secondary academic route and constant reform of upper secondary vocational route Open access for EU accession state nationals as well as longer-standing EU members

7. Employers ’ view of where the formally qualified are to be found: 1950 Low abilityHigh ability Graduates

8. Employers ’ view of where the formally qualified are to be found: 2000 Low abilityHigh ability Graduates

9. Employers ’ perceptions of the labour market: 2050? Low qualityHigh quality Graduates

13. Overall figures conceal huge variations Between and within regions and counties or cities

14. August 2012:16-24 years: % claiming Northumberland County Durham Caerphilly Derry Sandwell Mid Suffolk Wiltshire South Oxfordshire 8.4 8.2 10 13 12.1 4.7 3.7 2.2

15. % 16-24 claiming: London area 8.12 Thurrock6.2 Ashford5.2 Reigate3.1 Lewisham7.5 Brent6.5 Newham7.5 Camden3 Greenwich6.4

16. Returns to vocational awards Poor to specific occupational awards obtained in fulltime training/education Middling to ‘quasi-vocational’ (eg BTEC) Good to ‘proper’ apprenticeships: - reflects return to work experience, demonstrated persistence as much as to specific skills – Change in trade/occupation the rule rather than the exception

21. The challenge Improve apprenticeships Increase value of FT-based vocational Recognise reality of modern labour market – need to retrain/move between sectors Address disappearance of youth labour market – can decline be reversed?