1. New Mexico State University USDA-ERS Cooperative Agreement Research Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D. Dept. of Ag Economics & Ag Business NMSU Las Cruces, NM

2. History Research since 1999 –2 agreements NMSU located in Las Cruces, NM –Proximity to Santa Teresa, NM Four master’s students supported –Diana Lopez Mitchell (MS) –René Acuña (MS) –Christie Guinn (MAG) –Cristina Carmona (MAG)

3. Collaboration with… New Mexico Department of Agriculture New Mexico Livestock Board Unión Ganadera Regional de Chihuahua Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua

4. 2003 Distribution of Imported Mexican Calves (1.2 million animals)

5. #1 – Econometric Analysis of Cattle Movements from Mexico to the U.S. (D. Lopez Mitchell) Need for information on annual flow of calves by port & by month: –Allocation of inspection services and personnel –Budgeting Development of models to explain & predict Mexican calf imports –Precipitation (seasonality) –U.S. prices

6. Calves Imported at Santa Teresa, NM 1994 - 2003 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Jan-1994Jan-1995Jan-1996Jan-1997Jan-1998Jan-1999Jan-2000Jan-2001Jan-2002Jan-2003 Head

7. Rainfall - Chihuahua 1994 - 2003 0 50 100 150 200 Jan-1994Jan-1995Jan-1996Jan-1997Jan-1998Jan-1999Jan-2000Jan-2001Jan-2002Jan-2003 Millimeters

8. Cattle Price Ratio, 1994 - 2003 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Jan-1994Jan-1995Jan-1996Jan-1997Jan-1998Jan-1999Jan-2000Jan-2001Jan-2002Jan-2003 U.S. / Mexico

9. Calves Imported at Santa Teresa, NM When the price ratio , calf imports  When rainfall in Chihuahua , calf imports  Model explained 75% of variability

10. Results for Other Ports-of-Entry Eagle Pass, TX – 60% Del Rio, TX – 68% Hidalgo, TX – 34% Laredo, TX – 71% Presidio, TX – 68% Columbus, NM – 66% San Luis, AZ – 60% Douglas, AZ – 63% Nogales, AZ – 79%

11. #2 - Identification of Origins & Destinations of Imported Mexican Cattle (R. Acuña) Initiated Spring 2001 Interest in livestock traceability –Europe, Canada –Food & Mouth Disease, BSE Data for imported Mexican calves –Santa Teresa / San Jerónimo

12. Sources of Data … –Origins of calves in Mexico Certificado Zoosanitario; Unión Ganadera 900 observation – The “Ins” –Destinations of calves in the U.S. Unión Ganadera, bills of lading 4,025 observations – The “Outs” New Mexico Livestock Board 2,278 observations – Inspection certificates

13. Procedures 1.Create database in MS-Access 2.Convert data files 3.Import data to Arc-View 4.Join data for the imported calves with geographic data States, counties, zip codes, municipios 5.Derive sums, maps, tables Tuberculin number is common between New Mexico inspection form and Mexican certificado zoosanitario

19. #3 - Overview of North American Cattle Trade (C. Guinn) North American Beef and Cattle Trade: A Current Perspective –Publication describes status of US-Mexico- Canada beef & cattle trade –NM AES technical report

20. Live Cattle Imports by Port of Entry from Mexico to the United States: Data & Models –Update Lopez Mitchell work –Models explanatory power  –As US-Mexico live cattle price ratio , imports  –Rainfall coefficients not different from zero –NM AES research report –Currently revising existing US livestock sector model to better capture Mexican imports

21. Current model revision work Animal products branch quarterly livestock model –(R. Stillman) This model treated cattle & beef imports as exogenous We are trying to endogenize the imports

22. #4 – The Chihuahua, Mexico Export Cattle Industry (C. Carmona) Procedures for Exporting Cattle from Chihuahua, Mexico to the USA –Detailed description of Mexican policy environment, regulations & current procedures for exporting cattle to the US. –NM AES technical report

23. Certificate of Ovariectomy “Spaying” Zoosanitary Certificate Tuberculosis and Brucellosis Test Exportation to United States Certificate of Herd of Origin Cattle Movement Permit

24. Results of a Survey of Cattle Exporters in Chihuahua, Mexico –Develop information for the population of cattle exporters in Chihuahua, Mexico –Provide an overview of how Mexican cattle exporters perceive US-Mexico cattle trade –Random sample survey –Data from 143 cattle exporters –Interviews during Summer 2004 –UACh collaboration

26. Results of a Survey of Cattle Exporters in Chihuahua, Mexico √Mean cattle exported = 549 √Exports ranged from < 50 - 3,000 head √Export to US for better prices, ability to sell large lots √Avg. 18 years of exporting to US √80% have received government subsidies (genetics)

27. Survey of Chihuahua Cattle Exporters Pessimism about Mexican market Predict more US sanitary barriers Reasons for involvement in livestock industry –Tradition, culture, lifestyle, social status –Enterprise diversification Developing producer/exporter typology –W 192

28. Other activities… Effect of US brand laws on imports of Mexican cattle –C. Guinn Development of an improved bill of lading for use at NM ports of entry –C. Carmona

29. Thank You & Gracias!

30. Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D. Professor, Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Ag Economics & Ag Business Box 30003 MSC 3169 New Mexico State University Las Cruces, NM 88003 Tel: 505-646-1344 or 505-646-2401 Fax: 505-646-3808 Email: rskaggs@nmsu.edu