1. The Cyprus Conflict and Basic Parametres for a Solution

2. THE COLONIAL CYPRUS 1571 Ottoman Conquest. 1571 Ottoman Conquest. 1878 British Rule 1878 British Rule Post-WWI British Colony, EOKA (1955), TMT, Enosis struggle, double-enosis Post-WWI British Colony, EOKA (1955), TMT, Enosis struggle, double-enosis Decolonization in post-WWII era in the world, its repercussions on Cyprus. Decolonization in post-WWII era in the world, its repercussions on Cyprus.

3. THE 1960 REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS A State created by international treaties A State created by international treaties London and Zurich Accords (1959) London and Zurich Accords (1959) CONSOCIATIONAL DEMOCRACY: involving guaranteed group representation. It is a form of power-sharing. CONSOCIATIONAL DEMOCRACY: involving guaranteed group representation. It is a form of power-sharing. FEDERATION (is a type of sovereign state characterized by a union of partially self- governing states united by a central (federal) government. FEDERATION (is a type of sovereign state characterized by a union of partially self- governing states united by a central (federal) government. BI-COMMUNITY, BI-ETNICITY, BI- NATIONALITY reflected to all institutions BI-COMMUNITY, BI-ETNICITY, BI- NATIONALITY reflected to all institutions

4. THE 1960 REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS A PRESIDENTIAL SYSTEM GC President, TC Vice-President with VETO GC President, TC Vice-President with VETO EXECUTIVE: President and Vice President, CABINET of MINISTERS (70:30) EXECUTIVE: President and Vice President, CABINET of MINISTERS (70:30) LEGISLATIVE: 70 (Greeks):(30 Turks) LEGISLATIVE: 70 (Greeks):(30 Turks) JUDICIAL: JUDICIAL: Constitutional Court (GC, TC and neutral president). Constitutional Court (GC, TC and neutral president). High Court (Neutral president, having two votes, two GC and one TC judge. High Court (Neutral president, having two votes, two GC and one TC judge. Communal Courts (judges from that community) Communal Courts (judges from that community)

5. PUBLIC SERVICE: 70:30 ARMED FORCES and SECURITY FORCES Armed Forces: Army of 2000 – 60% GC and 40% TC Security Force:police and gendarmerie – 70% GC and 30% TC Treaty of Alliance: 950 Greek and 650 Turkish soldiers. THE 1960 REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS

6. System falls down in 1963. System falls down in 1963. RoC becomes a fully GC administration RoC becomes a fully GC administration TCs establish separate institutions TCs establish separate institutions * 1964-1968 – Great Powers – Cold War Discipline... * 1968 Beginning of the “inter-communal talks” – Denktaş-Klerides – on constitutional aspects. 1967-1974 Colonels’ regime in Greece 1967-1974 Colonels’ regime in Greece 1974 Greek Coup and Turkish Military Operation 1974 Greek Coup and Turkish Military Operation Failure of talks: TCs demanded regional autonomy in their enclaves, GC were trying to maintain total control of the government. Failure of talks: TCs demanded regional autonomy in their enclaves, GC were trying to maintain total control of the government.

7. - Cease-fire - 1975-76 Vienna Talks: the agreement to transfer the population from north to south and vice versa (1975 Population Exchange Agreement) 27 January and 12 February 1977 Makarios- Denktaş summit. 27 January and 12 February 1977 Makarios- Denktaş summit. Main principle: An independent, non-aligned, bicommunal federal Republic (became the reference point for the UN and USA since it was agreed by both parties). Main principle: An independent, non-aligned, bicommunal federal Republic (became the reference point for the UN and USA since it was agreed by both parties).

8. * 1983 Declaration of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) * February 1988 Presidential Election (George Vassiliou)

9. * 1988-1992 Talks towards an Overall Framework Agreement - More than 100 hours of negotiations between Vassiliou and Denktaş - Result: Ghali’s Set of Ideas (On 3 April 1992, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, the new UN Secretary-General, presented the Security Council with the outline plan for the creation of a bi- zonal, bi-communal federation that would prohibit any form of partition, secession or union with another state). Boutros Boutros-GhaliBoutros Boutros-Ghali - Denktaş and Vassiliou indicated that the Set of Ideas could not be accepted unconditionally. - Denktaş said he had concerns about the 9 paragraphs out of 100 paragraphs. - Vassiliou said he accepted the Set of Ideas and the Map as the basis for reaching an overall framework agreement, subject to any improvements for the benefit of both communities. - -

10. * Denktaş blamed as the “scape goat” and had an image of “Mr. No” in the international community. * 1993 Confidence Building Measures p. 85. - Very important mile-stone – a “new diagnosis of the Cyprus Problem” – change of method. - A very important, yet another, “missed opportunity” (Especially those measures regarding the opening of part of the Varosha and Nicosia International Airport)

11. * New International Conjecture - End of the Cold War + Easing of Cold War discipline + Emergence of regional/ethnic conflicts (Cyprus conflict losing its importance) + Collapse of “federations” + Introduction of the EC/EU factor (July 1990 – application for full membership

12. No negotiations 1994-1997 No negotiations 1994-1997 The new secretary general Kofi Annan tried to bring new dynamism in 1997. The new secretary general Kofi Annan tried to bring new dynamism in 1997. Clerides-Denktaş met on July 1997 in New York. Clerides-Denktaş met on July 1997 in New York. Yet these talks took place at a time when the EU decided to open accession negotiations with the Greek Cypriot Republic on behalf of the whole island. Yet these talks took place at a time when the EU decided to open accession negotiations with the Greek Cypriot Republic on behalf of the whole island. TC side furthered its intransigent policy in line with the new international conjecture - GC side focused on their long term EU strategy - Turkey swamped with its domestic problems in the 1990s – - 1997 Luxembourg Summit – “lowest point in the relations with the EU” – Turkish side openly shifting to “confederal” parametres... * 1999 Helsinki Summit – granted Turkey the candidate status. In the final declaration of the summit, it was underlined that a political solution to the Cyprus problem would facilitate Turkey’s EU membership

13. * EU reforms in Turkey (Ecevit Coalition) though very slow... - Financial crisis of February 2001 + accelerated the pace of the reforms (economic as well as political). Following 1998 and 2001 a pro-EU coalition on the rise, demanding Turkey’s membership to EU and the settlement of the Cyprus dispute. +2002 November – AKP’s electoral victory.

14. * Now there is a “deadline” to meet... - Turkish accession to the EU and finding a “comprehensive” solution plan to the Cyprus Problem - Annan Plan (AP) The UN's plan to make Cyprus a federation of two states with a loose central government + November 2002 – AP1 (Annan Plan version 1) + December 2002 – AP2 + February 2003 – AP3 Lets get the job done by April 2003 before the signing of the Accession Treaty...

15. On 10 and 11 March 2003, talks between parties in The Hague, The Netherlands, on a comprehensive settlement on the Cyprus problem based on a United Nations plan broke down. On 10 and 11 March 2003, talks between parties in The Hague, The Netherlands, on a comprehensive settlement on the Cyprus problem based on a United Nations plan broke down. - 2003 December – change of the government in the TRNC and re-focusing on the negotiations that led to Burgenstock and on 31 March 2004 the final version of the Annan Plan.

16. 24 April 2004 Referandums 24 April 2004 Referandums 75% NO by GCs and 65% YES by TCs. The Annan Plan failed to come into life… 2004-2008 – Impasse/Deadlock February 2008 Presidential election in Greek Cypriot community – enters Demetris Christofias

17. April 2008 Negotiations on the level of Working Groups and Technical Committees started Technical Committees work on daily problems related to crime, environment, health and cultural issues. Working Groups Working Groups (1) Governance and power-sharing (2) EU matters (3) Security and guarantees (4) Territory (5) Property (6) Economic matters

18. In April 2010, Presidential Election in TRNC, Derviş Eroğlu Replaced M. A. Talat. Since September 2008, the two leaders, Talat (then Eroğlu) and Christofias have been negotiating on six dossiers (issues of the Working Groups).

19. Recent Developments In the Geneva summit held on 7 July 2011, the leaders of the two communities, Demetris Christofias and Derviş Eroğlu met the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. The summit ended with significant decisions. It was agreed to intensify negotiations to reach convergence on the core issues by October 2011, give the UN an enhanced role and ultimately conclude the talks with an international conference. These decisions meant that leaders need to pick up the pace of the talks, go through and reach convergence on all core issues through a give- and-take process. In the Geneva summit held on 7 July 2011, the leaders of the two communities, Demetris Christofias and Derviş Eroğlu met the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. The summit ended with significant decisions. It was agreed to intensify negotiations to reach convergence on the core issues by October 2011, give the UN an enhanced role and ultimately conclude the talks with an international conference. These decisions meant that leaders need to pick up the pace of the talks, go through and reach convergence on all core issues through a give- and-take process.

20. Recent Developments The UN clearly laid out a timetable for the talks to reach their conclusion, with the obvious milestone being Cyprus’ EU Presidency starting in July 2012. UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer stated that the UN is aiming to get the agreement done before Cyprus takes over the presidency of the EU. UN’s efforts to drive the process forward is supported by the EU. The UN clearly laid out a timetable for the talks to reach their conclusion, with the obvious milestone being Cyprus’ EU Presidency starting in July 2012. UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer stated that the UN is aiming to get the agreement done before Cyprus takes over the presidency of the EU. UN’s efforts to drive the process forward is supported by the EU.

21. Recent Developments However little progress have been achieved. On 28 April 2012, UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer said: “It is clear to me and to both leaders that the negotiations have recently come to something of a standstill”. However little progress have been achieved. On 28 April 2012, UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer said: “It is clear to me and to both leaders that the negotiations have recently come to something of a standstill”. The UN decided to downgrade the talks, end leaders’ meetings and initiate a round of shuttle diplomacy between the two sides to decide the way forward, The UN decided to downgrade the talks, end leaders’ meetings and initiate a round of shuttle diplomacy between the two sides to decide the way forward,

22. Recent Developments The latest effort of the UN came at a time when public skepticism regarding the potential success of the ongoing negotiations in reaching a lasting agreement, continues to grow. The polls manifest that 65% of Greek Cypriots and 69% of Turkish Cypriots do not believe that current negotiations will lead to a result. The latest effort of the UN came at a time when public skepticism regarding the potential success of the ongoing negotiations in reaching a lasting agreement, continues to grow. The polls manifest that 65% of Greek Cypriots and 69% of Turkish Cypriots do not believe that current negotiations will lead to a result.

23. Recent Developments No doubt, at first sight one is confronted with a bleak picture. The election of Demetris Christofias, the leader of communist-rooted AKEL in 2008 had opened a window of opportunity. During this phase, Christofias and Talat issued two Joint Declarations under the UN’s auspices, respectively on 23 May and 1 July 2008. The leaders committed themselves to giving birth to a bizonal and bi-communal Cypriot Federation with political equality defined as a partnership which will have a Federal Government with a single international personality, as well as a Turkish Cypriot Constituent State and a Greek Cypriot Constituent State, which will be of equal status. No doubt, at first sight one is confronted with a bleak picture. The election of Demetris Christofias, the leader of communist-rooted AKEL in 2008 had opened a window of opportunity. During this phase, Christofias and Talat issued two Joint Declarations under the UN’s auspices, respectively on 23 May and 1 July 2008. The leaders committed themselves to giving birth to a bizonal and bi-communal Cypriot Federation with political equality defined as a partnership which will have a Federal Government with a single international personality, as well as a Turkish Cypriot Constituent State and a Greek Cypriot Constituent State, which will be of equal status.

24. Recent Developments Since then, there has been a backsliding on both sides, which scaled down and even concealed to the public the degree of convergence reached in the Declarations. The Greek Cypriots have stepped away from the concepts of “partnership” and “constituent states”, whereas the Turkish Cypriots have been squeamish about the constitutive characteristics of the future Federation. Since then, there has been a backsliding on both sides, which scaled down and even concealed to the public the degree of convergence reached in the Declarations. The Greek Cypriots have stepped away from the concepts of “partnership” and “constituent states”, whereas the Turkish Cypriots have been squeamish about the constitutive characteristics of the future Federation.

25. Recent Developments Talat has paid a heavy price for this. In April 2010, a Turkish Cypriot electorate that became increasingly disillusioned with the peace process elected hardliner Derviş Eroğlu as the next president of the TRNC. Even though Eroğlu continued the negotiations from where Talat left, no breakthrough has been achieved so far. Negotiations are hardly carried out in a constructive manner and it almost became customary to accuse the other party for not being sincere in their will to reach a settlement. Talat has paid a heavy price for this. In April 2010, a Turkish Cypriot electorate that became increasingly disillusioned with the peace process elected hardliner Derviş Eroğlu as the next president of the TRNC. Even though Eroğlu continued the negotiations from where Talat left, no breakthrough has been achieved so far. Negotiations are hardly carried out in a constructive manner and it almost became customary to accuse the other party for not being sincere in their will to reach a settlement.

26. Recent Developments Today both Eroğlu and Christofias are questioned on whether they truly embrace the established UN parameters for a federal solution to the Cyprus problem based on power-sharing between two communities. Despite the fact that leaders of the two sides agreed these parameters on paper, a win-win situation in a mutual compromise has been mostly the second choice for both sides in contrast to their respective temptation to win unilaterally. Turkish Cypriots’ unilateral winning strategy would entail having their own recognized independent state and solving the Cyprus problem through two recognized states in Cyprus. Today both Eroğlu and Christofias are questioned on whether they truly embrace the established UN parameters for a federal solution to the Cyprus problem based on power-sharing between two communities. Despite the fact that leaders of the two sides agreed these parameters on paper, a win-win situation in a mutual compromise has been mostly the second choice for both sides in contrast to their respective temptation to win unilaterally. Turkish Cypriots’ unilateral winning strategy would entail having their own recognized independent state and solving the Cyprus problem through two recognized states in Cyprus.

27. Recent Developments For Greek Cypriots, winning unilaterally means solving the Cyprus problem by establishing a Greek Cypriot unitary state for the whole island where the Turkish Cypriots will be a minority. For Greek Cypriots, winning unilaterally means solving the Cyprus problem by establishing a Greek Cypriot unitary state for the whole island where the Turkish Cypriots will be a minority.

28. Recent Developments The impasse in the Cyprus negotiations is not only contributing to the blocking of Turkey’s accession to the EU but it is also undermining institutional co-operation between the EU and NATO. In December 2006, European Council decided to suspend part of Turkey’s accession negotiations by freezing eight chapters due to Turkey’s denying access to Cypriot vessels and planes to its harbours and airports. The impasse in the Cyprus negotiations is not only contributing to the blocking of Turkey’s accession to the EU but it is also undermining institutional co-operation between the EU and NATO. In December 2006, European Council decided to suspend part of Turkey’s accession negotiations by freezing eight chapters due to Turkey’s denying access to Cypriot vessels and planes to its harbours and airports.

29. Recent Developments Meanwhile, Turkey is blocking the Republic of Cyprus’s membership of NATO. The ambition expressed by RoC to become a member of NATO in the NATO Foreign Ministers summit in Berlin in April 2011 led to a crisis as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu clearly expressed that RoC will not become a member of NATO before a solution is found to the Cyprus Problem. Meanwhile, Turkey is blocking the Republic of Cyprus’s membership of NATO. The ambition expressed by RoC to become a member of NATO in the NATO Foreign Ministers summit in Berlin in April 2011 led to a crisis as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu clearly expressed that RoC will not become a member of NATO before a solution is found to the Cyprus Problem.