1. JRC-090505 CI Interdependencies: Real time disaster response capability José R. Martí, KD Srivastava, and i2Sim Team The University of British Columbia 1 Complex Interdependent Systems Group 1

2. JRC-090505 University of British Columbia JIIRP project Sponsored by PS (Public Safety Canada and NSERC) V2010 Olympics Sponsored by DRDC (Defence Research and Development Canada) 2

3. JRC-090505 UBC’s Multidisciplinary Team Electrical and Computer Engineering Civil Engineering Software Engineering Computer Science Business Geography Clinical Psychology Graphics and Multi-Media 12 Researchers 12 Graduate Students 2 Post Doctoral Fellows 2 Research Engineer 3

4. JRC-090505 Our Objective and Motivation “First priority during disaster situations is, and should be, human survival” 4

5. JRC-090505 Human Vulnerability 5

6. JRC-090505 Panic and Belonging 6

7. JRC-090505 San Francisco Bay: Earthquake of M6.8 or Greater Due Now! A major earthquake on the Hayward Fault, in a highly populated section of the San Francisco Bay Area, is due. The last major earthquake on the Hayward Fault was in 1868, 140 years ago –Research by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) indicate the past five such earthquakes have been 140 years apart on average. A Hayward Fault EQ will adversely impact up to 5 Million people –Damage will likely exceed $1.5 Trillion –Up to 70% of the loss will be sustained in Alameda and Santa Clara Counties - The majority of that being in Alameda County 7

8. JRC-090505 Vancouver’s Juan de Fuca Plate 88 Source: GSC

9. JRC-090505 The Big One (M7-9) due this Century Medium ones (M6-7) Due Now Juan de Fuca’s plate slid into the continental coast 400-500 years ago It is due time to slide back The magnitude is expected to be fairly large (VIII to X), “THE BIG ONE” Historically, nine moderate to large earthquakes have occurred (Mw = 6-7) within 250 km of Vancouver in the last 130 years 9

10. JRC-09050510 Human Needs (Maslow)

11. JRC-090505 Disaster Mitigation Timeline EmergencyRecovery Months to yearsDays to weeksHours to daysDays to months 1 Preparation 2 Response 3 Recovery Physiological Safety Love/Belonging Esteem Being 11

12. JRC-090505 Individual Survival Needs & Critical Sectors SURVIVAL TOKENS 1.Water (suitable for drinking) 2.Food (adequate for emergency situations) 3.Body Shelter (breathable air, clothing, temperature, housing) 4.Panic Control (hope, political and religious leaders, psychologists, media) 5.Personal Communication (whereabouts of loved ones) 6.Individual Preparedness (education) 7.Sanitation (waste disposal, washing) 8.Medical Care (medicines, physicians, nurses) 9.Civil Order (fire fighters, police, army) CRITICAL SECTORS (CANADA) 1.Energy 2.Water 3.Food 4.Financial 5.Communications 6.Transport 7.Health 8.Safety, Order 9.Government, Defence 10.Manufacturing 12

13. JRC-090505 System of Systems 13

14. JRC-090505 Scope Systems Planning Time scale of weeks, months Statistical models, steady state models, long-dynamics models Policy planning Disaster Response Time scale of hours, days Urgency of saving human lives Infrastructures emergency response plans Emergency response management (EOC’s) Real time models First Responders Ground zero actions

15. JRC-090505 Disaster Response Plans During normal times, each infrastructure (power grid, telecom system, etc.) knows very well how to respond to problems in its own system: send out repair crews, readjust operation, etc. Disaster response plans are normally developed assuming the other infrastructures will be available However, during large-scale disasters, multiple infrastructures are damaged simultaneously and individual response plans are not sufficient Vital survival tokens need to be delivered very rapidly to prevent panic 15

16. JRC-09050516 Each Infrastructure is Responsible for its Internal Operation Each entity, be it a power network or a hospital, has its own models and internal modes of operation for normal times and for emergency times Models exist to simulate disaster events, e.g., forest fires, floods, etc. We can separate disaster modelling from infrastructures operating modes i2Sim provides an integration environment to optimize the combined actions of the interdependent infrastructures Solution is very fast for real-time what-if scenarios

17. JRC-090505 Hospital needs 100 MW 200 km3 water Power Substation 100 MW available out of 200 MW Water Station needs 60 MW Residences need 40 MW 50 km3 water 100 MW 0 MW 0 km3 60 MW 30 MW 10 MW 0 MW 150 km3 0 km3 30 km3 Resources Allocation Black  bad decision because hospital cannot function without water Blue  good decision to optimize global objective 17

18. JRC-09050518 Fast Survival Response Temporary Islands

19. JRC-090505 Coordination & Control (C2’) I2Sim EOC Emergency Operations Centre (can be virtual) Power AgentWater AgentRoads Agent i2Sim Choices in redirecting power? Change Substation Dispatch done Level 2 Thévenin Models Thévenin Power Control Centre Roads Control CentreWater Control Centre Detailed Internal Thévenin External Detailed Internal Thévenin External Detailed Internal Thévenin External Thévenin IDBi2dB 19 Choices in redirecting water? Choices in alternative roads?

20. JRC-090505 No Action A (I2Sim) Alternative actions Action A1 (I2Sim) Action A2 (I2Sim) Real World Action B1 (I2Sim) Action B2 (I2Sim) A B A, B = decision points Decision A - Take Action A2 Decision B - Take Action B1 Screens at A - Real World - No Action A (I2Sim) - Action A1 (I2Sim) - Action A2 (I2Sim) A No Action B (I2Sim) Decision Making Look-Ahead and Rewind Capability 20

21. JRC-090505 I2Sim Real Time Platform 21

22. JRC-09050522 i2Sim Ontology Cells (Production Units) A hospital cell requires inputs: electricity, water, doctors, medicines, etc. and produces outputs: patients healed Channels (Transportation Unit) The electricity to the hospital is carried by wires, the water is carried by pipes, the doctors are carried by the transit system Tokens (Exchange Unit) Quantities that are the inputs and the outputs of the cells, e.g., water is a token, a doctor is a token, a phone call is a token Controls (Distributors, Aggregators) Interface the physical layer with the decisions making layer, e.g., if electricity supply is limited, how much should go to the hospital and how much to the water pumping station

23. JRC-090505 Basic i2Sim Model 23

24. JRC-090505 Regional Scaling 24

25. JRC-090505 Hospital m = 70% Power Station Operability m = 60% Water Station m = 80% x 1 (t) x 5 (t) x 2 (t)x 3 (t) x 4 (t) Residential m = 40% Cell x 6 (t) Cell Channel electrical healed people Cell x 2 (t) = a.x 1 (t-Tau) aggregator distributor External Source Reserve External Source Channel electrical Channel water Channel electrical x 7 (t) x 8 (t) x 8 (t)=m x 7 (t) Only power operator needs details of power station 25

26. JRC-090505 Cell Model 26

27. JRC-090505 Channel Model 27

28. JRC-090505 Internal Details Private Only External Operating Modes Needed 28

29. JRC-090505 Colour Code by DHS HRT-09021129

30. JRC-090505 Input (x)Internal (m)Output (y) PowerWaterPumpsWater 100% 2 150% 100%2 or 150% 0%100%2 or 10% 100%50%2 or 150% 100%0%2 or 10% 2 or 10% Human Readable Table (HRT) Water Pumping Station 30 hidden

31. JRC-090505 Physical Modes and Resource Modes Colors (DHS) Physical Operability 85-100% 70-84% 45-69% 26-44% 0-25% PM01Patients discharge d/hour ElectricityWaterDoctors yx1x2x3 RM01100% RM0250%70%50%40% RM030% PM02Patients discharge d/hour ElectricityWaterDoctors yx1x2x3 RM0160%70%40%60% RM0220%30% 20% RM030% Effective Operability 31

32. JRC-090505 Models Granularity The HRT’s can be built with fine granularity data or with very coarse data with no numerical problems in the solution High granularity data rarely available and not really needed for effective emergency response Choices by operating models are usually limited (e.g., power substation, hospital, etc.)

33. JRC-090505 Cells State 33 Physical Operability (100%) Effective Operability (50%) because of lack of water Physical Operability (50%) Effective Operability (0%) because of lack of electricity

34. JRC-090505 Human Factors Can be incorporated the same way as physical damage, i.e., as physical operability reduction Doctors past their shift time will have slower reactions, as a result, the hospital output will be reduced Human errors can reduce output and also create accidents Accidents correspond to damage events

35. JRC-090505 Events An event is an action that changes the operability of cells or channels Model is independent of what or who produces the event Damage event degrades operability Repair event upgrades operability Decisions change resources allocation at output distributors

36. JRC-090505 Some Math 36

37. JRC-09050537 Linearized Thévenin Model

38. JRC-090505 Transportation/Interdependencies Matrix 38

39. JRC-090505 UBC Campus I2Sim Interdependencies Matrix 39

40. JRC-090505 Sensitivity Analysis The well-known “Sensitivity Network Approach” can be directly applied to the interdependencies matrix Where h is some parameter in T or W 40

41. JRC-090505 State Matrix System dynamics can be expressed in state-space form: Where state matrix A represents the system’s own dynamics and matrix B represents the state transitions forced by the excitation events Matrices A and B can be directly obtained from the system’s transportation matrix:

42. JRC-090505 PC-Cluster for Large Systems 42

43. JRC-09050543 UBC’s Vancouver campus is a small municipality 2,000 acres 50,000 daily transitory occupants 10000 full time residents own utilities Human and Physical layers were classified into: 19 types of cells; and 7 types of channels UBC Campus Test Case 43

44. JRC-090505 UBC Buildings Structural Damage 44

45. JRC-090505 UBC Lifelines 45

46. JRC-090505 Power House Main Substatio n Residenc es Hospit al 46 Cells and Channels from Physical Map

47. JRC-090505 Interdependent Damage Assessment Interdependent (new) Overlaid (classical) 47

48. JRC-090505 Damage and Casualties 48

49. JRC-090505 Events: Damage by flood Change distributor ratio Repair asset Human error Human tiredness... Multiple Events Simulation Flow

50. JRC-090505 Node 1 Node 4 Node 3 Node 5 Node 2 PC-Cluster Simulation

51. JRC-090505 Timings Closed solution much faster than open iterative solutions (e.g., agent-based modelling) by two or three orders of magnitude As an example, a system of 3,000 cells with 15 inputs/outputs per cell (45,000 state variables) for a 10 hr scenario with delta-t = 5 minutes in a few seconds of computer time Interactive scenario playing is basically instantaneous Allows for look ahead and rewind for decision making in real time 51

52. JRC-090505 Summary All infrastructures represented Models based on operability tables (HRT’s) HRT’s determined by physical damage and resources availability Decisions determine resources allocation Real time environment What if capability Off-line  system design On-line  training Real-Time  disaster event management

53. JRC-090505 Thank You! 53