1.  Future directions in adaptation research? Supporting the implementation of EU and Irish climate policy Stefan Gray, EPA Research Fellow – Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

2. EU & Irish adaptation policy: Five research challenges  Two key policy instruments:  EU Adaptation Strategy (EU AS)  National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (NCCAF)  …pose five key challenges 1.Uncertainty 2.Risks and costs 3.Coordination 4.Indicators & metrics 5.Transformation Impacts Climate Change Responses Mitigation Adaptation

3.  Substantial uncertainties attend climate adaptation  Particularly the case at local scales  Adaptation is held to be a principally local issue  NCCAF: Local authority County Development plans must be reviewed to include adaptation by mid-2014  How can the uncertainties of climate impact projections be dealt with in local level planning?  ‘Policy first’ adaptation assessment?  Low-regret, win-win adaptation options?  Adaptive (experimental) management? Uncertainty (Ranger et al 2010)

4. Risks and costs  Calculating the cost implications of climate impacts is an extremely complex and difficult task  Adaptation cost 2050 = US$75 – 100b/yr?  SLR impact cost 2100 = US$300 – 90b/yr?  EU AS: “climate-proof” CAP, CFP, infrastr. standards  NCCAF: Sectoral adaptation plans to be published by mid-2014, with a “clear understanding of the consequences of climate change for each sector”  How can climate impact cost and adaptation benefit be evaluated in a pragmatic and tractable way?  EEA (2013): ROA? RDM? RBR? Untested in Ireland

5. Coordination  Adaptive measures adopted by one sector, region or country may have maladaptive consequences  Management is traditionally carried out in silos  Water management vs. Energy vs. Transport?  NCCAF: 6 Govt. Departments & 1 State Agency to prepare 12 sectoral adaptation strategies by mid-2014  How can coordination across sectors, scales and borders be facilitated?  EU AS: National adaptation strategies; explicitly particiaptory adaptation; targeted LIFE funding  Cross-sectoral conceptual modelling?  Communities of practice; oversight via a dedicated (independent) body?

6. Indicators and metrics  Beyond the avoidance of maladaptation, how to judge what constitutes ‘successful’ adaptation is as yet unclear  EU AS: Commission to develop an “adaptation preparedness scoreboard”  NCCAF: Sectoral adaptation plans to be revised and updated every five years  How can meaningful indicators and metrics of adaptation efficacy be deployed?  Should indicators be process or outcome based? Qualitative or quantitative?  Can existing performance metrics be employed in adaptation, or must new metrics be developed in the future?

7. Transformation  Adaptation is an iterative process, the limits of which are increasingly coming to be acknowledged (Dow et al 2013)  The literature therefore calls for adaptation management cycles to evolve toward double and triple loop learning (Moser & Ekstrom 2010)  NCCAF: Sectoral adaptation plans to be revised and updated every five years; Local Authority County Development plans adopted every six years  What institutional or organisational innovations will be required to facilitate transformation?  How can adaptation cycles build knowledge and establish momentum?  Is anticipatory transformation feasible? Aims & Objectives System Identity Actions Outcomes 1 2 3

8. Conclusion UncertaintyRisks and costsCoordination Indicators and metrics Transformation  These research challenges are interdependent, and foundational to the success of European and Irish adaptation  They provide real opportunities to influence future research and policy  Timelines are short, adaptation is already underway  Thanks for your time and attention! Contact details: Stefan Gray s.gray@ucc.ie