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Deloitte CFO Survey Q1 2013 Fewer risks, greater optimism Feel free to use these slides in your presentations Internal webinar event, 16 th April CFO Survey team: Ian Stewart, Chief Economist, Debapratim De & Alex Cole
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Sharp fall in uncertainty 2Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Euro breakup fears easing 3Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Cost and availability of credit best in five years 4Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Continued rise in optimism 5Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Revenues to increase 6Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Risk assets rallying 7Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Sharp rise in corporate risk appetite 8Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Less emphasis on cost control and increasing cash flow 9Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Sharp fall in defensiveness 10Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. International corporates turn decisively expansionary 11Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Corporate investment drivers 12Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Equities overvalued for the first time in 3 years 13Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Confidence rising amongst smaller companies Confidence about next 12 months profitability highest since Q4 2007, for both manufacturing and service sectors 14Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London Manufacturing Services Source: British Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Increasing optimism about the housing market UK RICS Housing Market: price expectations 15Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Private sector hiring offsets public sector job losses 16Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Growth to remain weak in 2013 17Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London
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©2012 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Key points from the 2013 Q1 survey Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London CFO optimism has risen for the third consecutive quarter, taking it above its average for the last five and a half years. Corporate risk appetite is at its third highest level. Fears of a euro breakup have receded, despite the survey period having coincided with the crisis in Cyprus. Perceptions of economic and financial uncertainty have fallen to the lowest level since early 2010. Credit availability is at its highest level in five and a half years. CFOs’ balance sheet policies are becoming less defensive, with less emphasis on cost cutting and cash. Breaking the results down we find that this has been driven by companies with strong overseas exposure which have become markedly more expansionary in the way they run their balance sheets. UK-facing corporates remain in defensive mode. 18
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 19Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London 2012 2013
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©2012 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London20 About the Deloitte CFO Survey The Deloitte CFO Survey, launched in 2007, is a quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers and Group Finance Directors of major UK companies. The Survey captures shifts in UK CFOs' opinions on valuations, risks and financing and has become a benchmark for gauging financial attitudes of major corporate users of capital. Over 300 CFOs, mainly from FTSE 350 companies, have joined the CFO Survey panel. In the latest survey, covering the first quarter of 2013, 120 CFOs participated, including CFOs of 26 FTSE 100 and 44 FTSE 250 companies. The rest were CFOs of other UK listed companies, large private companies and UK subsidiaries of major companies listed overseas. The combined market value of the 69 UK-listed companies surveyed is £671 billion, or approximately 32% of the UK quoted equity market. The Deloitte CFO Survey has been widely quoted in the media and is firmly established with the policymakers. The Bank of England has cited the CFO Survey several times in its publications such as the quarterly Inflation Report and the monthly Trends in Lending report. The findings have also been quoted in the minutes of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meetings. To learn more about the CFO Survey please visit our website www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurveywww.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey Contacts To discuss the Survey findings and methodology contact: Ian Stewart, Chief Economist, Deloitte UK on 020 7007 9386 or istewart@deloitte.co.ukistewart@deloitte.co.uk Debapratim De, Senior Economic Analyst, Economics & Markets Research on 020 7303 0888 or dde@deloitte.co.ukdde@deloitte.co.uk Alex Cole, Economic Analyst, on 020 7007 2947 or alecole@deloitte.co.ukalecole@deloitte.co.uk To sign your clients up to the CFO Survey panel please contact Alex Cole.
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©2012 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. This document is confidential and prepared solely for your information. Therefore you should not, without our prior written consent, refer to or use our name or this document for any other purpose, disclose them or refer to them in any prospectus or other document, or make them available or communicate them to any other party. No other party is entitled to rely on our document for any purpose whatsoever and thus we accept no liability to any other party who is shown or gains access to this document. Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675 and its registered office at 2 New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), a UK private company limited by guarantee, whose member firms are legally separate and independent entities. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms. Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte LLP, London21
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Deloitte UK screen 4:3 (19.05 cm x 25.40 cm) © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of DTTL. This publication has been written in general terms and therefore cannot be relied on to cover specific situations; application of the principles set out will depend upon the particular circumstances involved and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP would be pleased to advise readers on how to apply the principles set out in this publication to their specific circumstances. Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675 and its registered office at 2 New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Tel: +44 (0) 20 7936 3000 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7583 1198. © 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 22
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