1. Strategies for Promoting a Clash of Civilizations Al Qaeda: Red Team March 2010

2. Situational Context Safe-haven eliminated Heightened US defenses Greater anti-Americanism Regional democratic reforms Greater US incursion in region (US stretched thin) Global recognition Operations significantly weakened Less leaders; more soldiers More diverse target set (Allies & Near Enemy ) Less professional attacks through affiliates; variable Muslim support Preserve al Qaeda leadership of jihadist movement Improve operational effectiveness (Near & Far) Escalate conflict between Islam & the West; Promote clash of civilizations Ensure survival of jihadist movement; achieve caliphate 9/11 Invasion of Afghanistan Madrid bombing Invasion of Iraq Zarqawi alliance DHS created What are our vital interests? How has the landscape changed since 9/11? Where do the changes leave us? Timeline of Key Events Iraqi elections Capture of KSM Saudi electionsEgyptian reforms Launch of TTIC TSA created 20012002200320042005 Bali bombing Election of Abbas

3. Operational Objectives Short Term (next 3-5 years) Long Term (unchanged, aspirational) Remove all Western Forces from Islamic Nations Eliminate Regional Apostate Regimes (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, etc.) Restore the Caliphate Create Operational ‘Safe Harbor’ Strengthen Internal Capabilities to: -Rebuild leadership; Enhance training of recruits -Attack a major US economic and population center Entangle US in Additional Conflict to Destabilize Iraq

4. 1. Strike the Beast WMD attack(s) on strategic U.S. cities to dwarf 9/11 Proposed ActionsExpected ReactionsImpact Acquire WMD Acquire intelligence to select targets and craft specific attack plan Select and train key human operatives to enter U.S. and execute plan Release video to rally Muslims after successful attack U.S. demand for immediate military retaliation against someone Ratcheted-up pursuit of Al-Qaeda leadership Tougher policy toward WMD programs in rogue states Would cripple West economically and might lead to U.S. invasion of another state Further strain US military resources Raises the stakes and might create all-out war between West and Muslims Focus: Steps:

5. 1. Strike the Beast Might break U.S. will to remain in Islamic world or prompt all-out war Economic devastation Show of strength to rally Muslims Kills many infidels Operationally complex: leadership, coordination, resources Tough to penetrate U.S. security WMD is difficult to obtain/transport Response likely to decimate operational capability ProsCons Recommendation: A very attractive strategy that should be pursued once we have restored operational capability.

6. 2. Command the Hydra Consolidate alliances with other jihadist groups to improve recruitment and synchronize attacks Pressure West to leave Islamic nations Proposed ActionsExpected ReactionsImpact Install trusted, trained operatives in Islamic nations Forge alliances with extant jihadist networks (Abu Sayyaf, Jemmah Islamiah) U.S pressure on state sponsors / havens Remedy operational disruption Consolidate control Focus: Steps: 1.Consolidate Alliances 2.Unprecedented Co-ordination of International Attacks Synchronize smaller-scale attacks globally through communication with installed operatives Panic, unwillingness to travel/operate in Islamic areas Strong psychological impact Pressure on U.S. to leave Islamic nations

7. 2. Command the Hydra Broad, disruptive psychological impact Control and leverage global resources Rebuilds a trained operational corps Does not address survival needs Communication complexity poses management challenge and risks to operational security Disparate agendas; local interests ProsCons Recommendation: Strategy fails to address our immediate survival needs and should only be pursued to buy time or complement other attacks.

8. 3. Coup for the Caliphate Shore-up base: eliminate Pakistani apostate regime Strengthen operational safe-haven in NW Pakistan Install sympathetic regimes; Access WMD Proposed ActionsExpected ReactionsImpact Further infiltrate Pakistani military Kill Musharraf Run insurgency Support anti-U.S clerics General Khan takes power (U.S ally) U.S sends troops to put down coup Uprising against military Islamic parties power- share with military & expel U.S Stretches U.S militarily (faster Iraq withdrawal) Ends Pakistani-U.S cooperation Improves safe haven & recruiting capability Creates opportunity to further infiltrate military & seize nuclear weapon Focus: Steps: 1.Overthrow Musharraf 2.Overthrow Saudi Regime Large attack on Saudi royal family Support insurgency U.S. troops return Power struggle & popular anti-western uprising Reduces Saudi-U.S co-operation Improves safe haven & recruiting capability Next Step:

9. 3. Coup for the Caliphate Self protection from traitor regimes Halt the momentum of U.S. co-operation with the Islamic world Leverage deep anti-Americanism in Islamic world Re-focus operations on creation of Caliphate before major attack on Far Enemy Complex planning and succession ambiguity Increased U.S. troop presence in the region poses major risk to our command centre Popular uprisings may not necessarily lead to sympathetic new regime ProsCons Recommendation: High risk but necessary strategy to counter threats to survival and improve ability to meet long-term objectives.

10. Recommendation: Coup for the Caliphate Assumptions That Determine Choice & Sequencing -Currently in survival rather than operational mode. -Need NW Pakistani base to conduct operations. -We are in operational mode. -We can access critical resources to attack Far Enemy. -(A) Lack resources to attack Far Enemy; or -(B) Step 2 successful and wish to continue pressure. Coup for the Caliphate Strike the Beast Command the Hydra 1 2 3