1. Negotiations Turkey - EU Will They Ever End?
by Crystal Santana, Mike O‘Donnell, Bojana Marusic, Nina Schulte-Schmale

2. Table of Contents 1.) Overview 2.) Background
3.) Beginning of negotiations with EU
4.) Turkey’s progress in meeting the requirements
5.) Arguments for Turkish membership
6.) Arguments against Turkish membership
7.) Conclusion/ Will Turkey join the EU?

3. Overview Capital: Ankara Official language: Turkish
Religion: secular, 99.8% is Muslim
Government: ParliamentaryRepublic
Population: 2005 estimate
2000 estimate
GDP: 2006 estimate
Total $612.3 Billion
Per Capita $9,107

4. Background – steps in becoming a candidate of EU
Turkey –pluralist secular democracy
Proclamation of the Republic in 1923
1959 – European Economic Community (EEC)
1999 – candidate country
2004 – Copenhagen political criteria
2006 – concrete accession negotiations

5. Beginning of negotiations with EU
3. October 2005 => formal beginning of negotiations by adoption of Negotiating Framework
Based on:
Screening process (first stage)
Three pillars

6. Screening Process
Screening => analytical examination of the EU legislation
EU law divided into 35 chapters
1.) “Analytical screening”: Commission explains its acquis to Turkey
2.) “Detailed or bilateral screening”: Ankara explains its laws
Commission evaluates the degree of development
in all chapters.

7. Three Pillars
Full implementation of Copenhagen criteria (political, economic and adoption of acquis)
Complying with the EU acquis:
- harmonization of Turkey’s rules and institutions with those of the EU
Civil society dialogue:
- dialogue on cultural differences, religion, migration issues and concerns about minority rights and terrorism

8. Turkish Progress on the Requirements
Criteria needing improvement:
Economic
Political
Ability to assume obligations

9. Economic Aspect
No progress made on trade unions’ rights (based on standards set by EU and Int’l Labor Organization)
Must have the option to strike
Must make ability accessible to conduct collective bargaining
Government debt has decreased
Since 2001, the share of debt in relation to GDP has fallen, and is expected to continue decreasing

10. Political Aspect (1) Non-Muslim groups
-continual delay of law protecting other religious communities
Freedom of Speech
-improvement in allowing people to assemble peacefully
Women’s rights
-legal structure established, but not always applied, especially in areas of poverty, where sometimes crimes against women still take place i.e. “honor crimes”

11. Political Aspect (2) Minimizing corruption
- policies in place are still not strong enough to deter rampant levels of corruption
Corporal abuse
- torture still used

12. Ready to Assume Obligations?
Right of establishment and freedom to provide services
Intellectual/property law
Competition
Energy
Environment

13. Arguments against Turkish Membership
Values and culture
Geography
Population size and poverty
Political power
Relations with neighbors
Human right and democracy
CAP
Budgetary costs

14. Values and Culture
Predominantly Muslim country (99.8 % of the population)
Turkey is currently the only candidate country with a Muslim majority
Predominantly Muslim country (9

15. Geography Only 3% in geographical Europe Turkish capital is in Asia
Turkey's borders reach Middle Eastern nations

16. Population Size and Poverty
expansion almost equal in population to that of the 2004 Enlargement
wave of poor Turkish immigration
high current account deficit, high debt, and high unemployment

17. Unemployment

18. Political Power
Its almost 70 million inhabitants will bestow it the second largest number of representatives in the European Parliament, after Germany

19. Relations with Neighbors
Cyprus dispute
Aegean dispute

20. Human Rights and Democracy
Concerns about the Turkish state´s ability to reach European standards in issues as gender equality, political freedom, religious freedom and minority rights

21. CAP costs
In general full membership for Turkey of the EU would require an additional $3.1 bn of agricultural subsidies following the existing lines of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

22. Budgetary Cost Aspect (1)
starting point
two variants to this approach:
a) How much would Turkey receive today if it were a fully established member?
b) How much is Turkey likely to receive under current rules by a likely accession date, e.g. 2015?

23. Budgetary Cost Aspect (2)
a) Turkey in the EU today:
Structural Funds, capped at 4 % of its GDP
Turkey’s GDP around 200 billion euros- its allocation would be around 8 billion annually
extending the current CAP to Turkey -approximately 9 billion
b) Turkey in 2015 in an enlarged EU:
absorption limit has been set at 4 % of recipient GDP
Turkish GDP could reach about 4 % of the EU-28 GDP

24. Arguments for Turkish Membership
Economical
Political
Energy Resources
Population

25. Economical(1) Top 10 emerging markets in the world
In 2004 and 2005, growth was above 7%
In a few years, Turkey will have overtaken Poland and Romania

26. Economical(2) GDP is set to grow by 6% per year on average
Contribution to the EU budget would rise from estimated € 5bn in 2014 to almost € 9bn by 2020
Turkish population: vast market for European goods and ready labour force
It could supplement a labour shortage in “old Europe” (by 2014, 1 in 4 Turks will be 14 or less)

27. Domestic and Foreign Investments
low labour costs, closeness to a huge potential Eastern European market and unrestricted access to the European market would trigger massive domestic and foreign investments into Turkey's manufacturing industry

28. Political Strong regional military power
Second largest standing armed force in NATO and strongest in the Muslim world
Important geo-strategic position
Terrorism concerns

29. Energy Resources Turkey – center plot of energy resources
Direct piping between Russia and Iran carries natural gas to Turkey
Strategical papelines may help EU to maintain energy guarantee

30. Population
Muslim population would be a weight to EU multi-culturalism efforts
Might help to prevent potential “clash of civilizations”
23% of Turkish population is under 15, a balance for the increasingly aging population of the current EU

31. Conclusion/ Will Turkey Join the EU?
Latest steps
Public opinion

32. Latest Steps (1)
29 Nov. 2006: Commission recommends to partially suspend membership negotiations with Turkey
11 Dec. 2006: EU foreign ministers suspend talks with Turkey on eight of the 35 negotiating areas
1 Jan. 2007: Germany takes over the rotating Presidency of the EU

33. Latest Steps (2)
Turkey: presidential elections in May and parliamentary elections in November 2007
negotiation process-“open-ended”
2012: Membership negotiations end
2015: Joining date

34. Public Opinion
48% of EU citizens are against Turkey joining the EU, while about 39% are in favor
Citizens from new member states
Austria
Sweden

35. What Do People in Turkey Think About the Issue?

36. References
Turkey 2005 Progress Report, European Commission, Brussels 9. November 2005

37. Thank you for your attention!