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The Challenges from India in the Global Generic Market Place Dr. Brian W Tempest Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, Delhi, India Madrid – 8 th February 2007
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Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this presentation and the subsequent discussions, which include words or phrases such as “will”, “aim”, “will likely result”, “would”, “believe”, “may”, “expect”, “will continue”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “contemplate”, “seek to”, “future”, “objective”, “goal”, “likely”, “project”, “should”, “potential”, “will pursue” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions may constitute "forward-looking statements". These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to our ability to successfully implement our strategy, our growth and expansion plans, obtain regulatory approvals, our provisioning policies, technological changes, investment and business income, cash flow projections, our exposure to market risks as well as other risks. Ranbaxy does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof. Disclaimer
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Asia’s Share of the World GDP (at PPP in %) Year 1870 1913 1950 1973 2001 China 17% 9% 5% 5% 12% India 12% 8% 4% 3% 5% Japan 2% 3% 3% 8% 7% Rest of Asia 7% 5% 7% 9% 13% Total Asia 38% 25% 19% 25% 37% Source – WEF - was 59% in 1820 with India 16%, China 33%
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Davos 2006 Source – FT
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The Productivity Advantage Indiaa usa Pharma view USA 1 chemist Better education x 1.3 1 chemist 70 hours/week Longer working time x 1.3 50 hours/week $ 800 monthly Lower cost x 20 $ 12,000 monthly Sources: IPHMR Conferences, New Delhi August 2004
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Japan - by 2050 36% > 65 years from 19% in 2005 China - one child families, get older before becoming wealthy - labour costs will rise owing to labour shortage India - India already has the youngest labour force in the world - source of the extra needed global workforce - India will pass China in total population in 2030 - By 2013 India will have more young workers 20-24 than China The Ageing Advantage Working Population, 15-64 years In millions
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Growth - Japan, sustain current growth - China, slightly slower growth to prevent hard landing - India, increasing growth rate being talked up to 9%/10% Sentiment - India, largest foreign affairs caucus in US Congress (180), nuclear deal - China, 74,000 demonstrations reported in 2005 in China. State secrecy, IP The Economic Growth Advantage
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The world has over 800 billionaires USA has almost half India - 36 billionaires China - 15 billionaires Net worth of 40 richest Indians - $170 b 40 richest Chinese - $38b Source: Forbes, Asia November 27, 2006 “2006 belongs to some of the emerging markets, and no country more than India” The Billionaires Advantage
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The R&D Investment Advantage Most attractive R&D Investment locations: Ranked 3 rd - China, USA, India, Japan & UK Source – UNCTAD 2005 Reasons why India: Qualified Scientists & Engineers Global India players with Alliances English speaking TRIPs compliant – first patent March 2006 IIT, IIM & other scientific institutions Source – UNCTAD 2005
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4 th largest reservoir of Scientific Manpower (2 nd largest English speaking) 3m graduates pa, 115k MSc Chemistry (3.5k UK), 215k Eng (222k USA) Physics the most popular subject Lead by a Nuclear Scientist as President – remote sensing satellite technology, 1/6 countries PCT application ranked 3 rd – K, Ch, Ind, Si, RSA “US & Europe will not dominate Science, Maths, IT industries” – Mr. Bill Gates The Education Advantage
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Science Education in EU “This means that when pupils are in a science laboratory their experience is unsafe, unsatisfactory or uninspiring for 65% of the time.” Source: Royal Society of Chemistry, Policy Bulletin – Spring 2006 UK “A” Level entries:Closed UK University 2000 2005 % change Chemistry Departments: Physics : 32,059 28,119 -12% Dundee Kings Chemistry: 40,856 38,851 -5% Surrey Exeter Maths: 67,036 52,897 -21% Lancaster Queen Mary Computing: 19,099 7,242 -62% Source: Daily Mail – 11 August 2006 Only pupils at private schools can take physics, chemistry & biology separately Source: Times, 9 th November 2006
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Number of Higher Education Institutions 05/06 18,123 +59% 00/01 11,412 90/01 5,932 80/01 4,861 Source: Indian University Grants Commission Science Education in India Number of Students enrolled in Higher Education Institutions 05/06 10,500 +40% 00/01 7,500 90/01 4,000 80/01 3,000 Source: Indian University Grants Commission Number of Institutions courses 05/06 99/00 Pharmacy 1478 669 +120% Medicine 229 174 +32% Physiotherapy 205 52 +294% Source: Pavan Agarwal (2006) based on data from professional councils PhD Degree awarded in Science 03/045408+44% 00/013734 90/012950 (USA 03/04 25,000) Source: Indian University Grants Committee
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The Education Advantage Engineers/Science graduates p.a – India 0.7m, China 0.5m, EU 0.5m, USA 0.4m, Japan 0.3m
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34 News TV channels. Oldest 13 years old (NDTV) 5000 newspapers, circulation 17m. 12 with 1m copies each.200m daily readers. 21m new daily readers 2003/2005, +14% with 50% rural and 50% urban readership Principal internet languages to become English, Chinese and Hindi Diaspora network (25m across 120 countries) Indians are hungry for information The Information Advantage Internet Usage – Asia 1.China123 m 2.Japan 86 m 3.India 51 m 4.S.Korea 34 m Source: Business Today, Sept. 24, 2006 Mobile Phones 1.China421 m 2.USA190 m 3.Japan157 m 4.Russia148 m 5.India116 m Source: Times of India, Sept. 14, 2006
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Manufacturing growth versus China Scope for improvement of Government Policies GDP dynamics:19902005 - Agriculture 31%20% - Industry28%26% - Services41%54% More privatization – public sector not so buoyant Further encouragement of R&D for Pharmaceuticals The Potential for Improvement Advantage
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Cost Advantage China India Enrolment 50 33 Cost 40 16 Patients/site 250 500 Based on USA at 100 Index Source: BCG report ‘Looking Forward 2006’ CountryUSAIndia Sites228 Subject626896 Source: Andy Lee Pfizer Global, head clinical study and data management.Business India, August 13, 2006 “………..The Country’s World Class skills in Chemistry & IT and it’s large treatment naive patient population provides added allure” Boston Consultancy Group Harnessing the power of India 2006 The Clinical Advantage Medical Tourism Cardiac Surgery$000s USA30 Singapore20 Thailand14 India5-7 Source: Business world, 18 th Dec’2006 Patients - Naïve untreated patients - HIV50m - Diabetes32m - HT5m
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The M&A Future Advantage
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India FDI 2003/4$4.3b 2004/5$5.6b 2005/6$6.0b Source: Outlook business June 2006 The Investment Advantage 2005 FDI Brazil$15bUK$164 b Russia$14bUSA$ 99 b India$6b China$72b (+$35b) Source: UNCTAD 2006 - India on target for $10b in 2006/07 - But still small
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Microsoft Global Development Centre (GDCI) Microsoft Global Services (MGSI) Microsoft Global Technical Support Centre (GTSC) Microsoft Systems Research (MSRI) Microsoft India Development Centre (MIDC) Investment by Microsoft in India
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A Global Strategic Asset for developed World Market businesses India
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The Competitive Advantage - Pharma Active Pharmaceuticals Facility, MohaliDosage Forms Facility, Paonta Sahib
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The Competitive Advantage - Pharma R&D IIIRanbaxy’s Patent Filings 24 49 32 86 146 170 185 2001 2000 1999 2004 2005 Clinical data management An Indian speciality 300 staff GSK -2.2m clinical data sheets -450 trials -Error rate <0.01/100k -No data security issues Source: BCG report ‘Looking Eastward Sep’2006’ R&D hotbeds “China & India have become R&D hotbeds……….. MNCs already operate some 180 R&D centres in China and More than 100 in India” Source: BCG report ‘Looking Eastward Sep’2006’
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The Pharma Advantage – API’s USA DMF filings by India 1990 1 1995 4 2000 36 2004 187 2005 262 Source: Crisil / US FDA / J P Morgan % Share of USA DMF filings India China 2004 27% 9% 2005 37% 10% Q1’06 44% 15% Q2’06 41% 16% Q3’06 45% 17% (latest) Source: US FDA / J P Morgan, 6 th August 2006 Source: US FDA, Credit Suisse
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- One in every four ANDAs filed by Indian Companies in top USA FDA filers Source: KPMG - No Chinese generic company has yet filed a USA FDA ANDA The Pharma Advantage - ANDAs 24 46 64 144 ANDA Filings in USA by Indian Companies
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Global Market Trends for Generic Companies Source: UBS, Businessworld, 30 th October 2006
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Global Market Trends – Discovery R&D Vendor Availability India China Analog preparation4125 Combinatorial chemistry377 Analytical chemistry377 Structural chemistry265 Assay development262 Computer drug design2613 High throughput Screening112 Bio informatics137 Genetically modified animals03 Basic molecular biology1325 Source – BCG, ‘Looking Eastwards, September 2006’ * Out of 90 vendors in October 2005
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The Tempest Crystal Ball Post TRIPs new products will dry up in India by 2008 Under this pressure Indian companies will adopt different business models: - Generics, Discovery, Services, M&A MNCs will continue to be attracted to India owing to the science education China will be perceived to be stronger in biology/ toxicology 75% of new R&D sites and 30% of R&D staff globally will be in India/China Alliances between Western Biotech and Indian companies will expand The global generic industry will be dominated by India in the next five years China will dominate the chemical intermediates segment It will be India & China - and not India or China
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Key Challenges
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Potential Challenge – Asian Flu* *50% of world chickens bred in Asia
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Potential challenge – Oil prices Source – Outlook business June 2006 A war against Iran could drive oil > $200 a barrel - ‘Times’ 22 nd June 2006 BRIC countries consume 20% global oil Source – EIIGSource – BP
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India, China, USA – Refuse any mandatory CO2 emission caps India is 6 th greatest energy consumer Ganges River is the World’s most polluted river – source: World Commission on water Potential Challenge - Pollution
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Potential Challenge – Infrastructure Source – Manmohan Singh “Our greatest potential will be realised only if we can ensure that our Infrastructure does not become a severe and critical handicap”
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Asia economic strength is returning to levels seen in the past Many advantages for India – R&D, Demographics, Education India as a global strategic asset for developed markets Some “Challenges” – infrastructure is the most serious The current feeling in Indian Boardrooms is that a turning point has been reached, a tipping point has been passed and India’s time has arrived “China & India represent the future of Asia and quite possibly the future for the global economy” – Steve Roach, Morgan Stanley Summary
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Thank You
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