0. The Science of Macroeconomics1
The Science of Macroeconomics
1-1 What Macroeconomists Study
1-2 How Economists Think
1-3 How this Course Proceeds
This is the 2007 annual update to the PowerPoints for the 6th edition of Mankiw’s Macroeconomics. The purpose of the annual updates is to update the data to the most recent available, and correct any typos reported by users or found by myself.
If you find an error or have a suggestion, please me at I will fix any errors and incorporate the best user suggestions in the 2008 update, or in the next major revision of these slides (which will coincide with the next edition of the textbook, probably coming in 2009).
To help you get the most from these slides, I have prepared a README file with User Instructions, and I have annotated many individual slides with notes – visible only to you – that appear in this area of your screen.

1. Learning Objectives This chapter introduces you to
the issues macroeconomists study
the tools macroeconomists use
some important concepts in macroeconomic analysis
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

2. Important Issues in Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics, the study of the economy as a whole, addresses many topical issues:
Why does the cost of living keep rising?
Why are millions of people unemployed, even when the economy is booming?
What causes recessions?
Can the government do anything to combat recessions? Should it?
This slide and the next contain a list of some topical issues that macro can help students understand. Feel free to substitute others as new issues emerge.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

3. Important Issues in Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics, the study of the economy as a whole, addresses many topical issues:
What is the government budget deficit? How does it affect the economy?
Why does the U.S. have such a huge trade deficit?
Why are so many countries poor? What policies might help them grow out of poverty?
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

4. U.S. Real GDP per capita (2000 dollars)
9/11/2001
First oil price shock
long-run upward trend…
Great Depression
Second oil price shock
source: same as textbook through More recent values from U.S. Census Bureau (for population figures) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (for GDP figures), both obtained from FRED, the Economic database of the St. Louis Fed’s Economic Research Division,
World War II
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

5. U.S. inflation rate (% per year)
source: same as textbook through More recent values from Bureau of Labor Statistics,
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

6. U.S. unemployment rate (% of labor force)
source: same as textbook through For more recent years, BLS.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

7. Why Learn Macroeconomics?
1. The macroeconomy affects society’s well-being.
percent of labor force
crimes per 100,000 population
unemployment (left scale)
property crime (right scale)
Social problems like homelessness, domestic violence, crime, and poverty are linked to the economy.
For example…
This slide replaces one in earlier versions of my PowerPoint slides that contained estimates – first published in on the statistical association of unemployment with suicides, homicides, mental institution and prison populations, and so forth. I was increasingly uncomfortable with using such out of date estimates, but could not find more recent ones.
For the 2007 update (to the PowerPoints for Mankiw’s 6th edition that first appeared in 2006), I have scrapped the 1983 estimates and instead provide this graph of property crime and unemployment. While the correlation is clearly not perfect, there is a strong, visible association between unemployment, an economic indicator, and crime, a social indicator.
Sources:
unemployment rates - BLS
crime rates - Bureau of Justice Statistics, Data Online at
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

8. Why Learn Macroeconomics?
2. The macroeconomy affects your well-being.
In most years, wage growth falls when unemployment is rising.
change from 12 mos earlier
percent change from 12 mos earlier
Macroeconomics helps students understand forces that will affect their financial well-being. Here’s an example.
When the unemployment rate is rising, tens or hundreds of thousands of people are losing their jobs. This affects even those who don’t lose their jobs:
As the graph shows, during most years there is a clear negative relationship between the (12-month) change in unemployment and the annual growth rate of real wages. In plain English, rising unemployment is associated with falling (and often negative) wage growth. So when the economy goes into recession, even if our students get to keep their jobs, they will find it much harder to get a raise, and may have to accept a real wage cut.
Students find this relationship intuitive. When unemployment is rising, the supply of workers is rising faster than demand, so wages grow more slowly or even fall. Conversely, falling unemployment gives workers more bargaining power over wages, as it becomes increasingly hard for employers to replace their workers, and increasingly easy for workers to find good opportunities with other companies.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

9. Why Learn Macroeconomics?
3. The macroeconomy affects politics.
Unemployment & inflation in election years
year U rate inflation rate elec. outcome
% 5.8% Carter (D)
% 13.5% Reagan (R)
% 4.3% Reagan (R)
% 4.1% Bush I (R)
% 3.0% Clinton (D)
% 3.3% Clinton (D)
% 3.4% Bush II (R)
% 3.3% Bush II (R)
I’d also suggest you briefly define the inflation rate (as the percentage increase in the cost of living) to help students understand this slide.
Main point of this data: The state of the economy has a huge impact on election outcomes. When the economy is doing poorly, there tends to be a change in the party that controls the White House.
1976: The rates of inflation () and unemployment (u) both high. Incumbent (Ford, R) loses.
1980: u still high,  even higher. Incumbent (Carter, D) loses.
1984: u still high, but  much lower. Incumbent (Reagan) wins.
1988:  the same, u much lower. Incumbent party wins.
1992:  low, but u much higher (and was higher yet in 1991). Incumbent loses.
1996: u much lower, incumbent wins.
2000: Economy doing great, and incumbent party candidate (Gore, D) wins majority of popular vote, but loses electoral college to challenger.
2004: u somewhat higher, but lower than in 2001 recession;  low; incumbent wins
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

10. How Economists Think Economic Models
…are simplified versions of a more complex reality
irrelevant details are stripped away
…are used to
show relationships between variables
explain the economy’s behavior
devise policies to improve economic performance
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

11. Theory as Model Building: Supply & demand for new cars
shows how various events affect price and quantity of cars
assumes the market is competitive: each buyer and seller is too small to affect the market price
Variables:
Qd = quantity of cars that buyers demand
Qs = quantity that producers supply
P = price of new cars
Y = aggregate income
Ps = price of steel (an input)
Students will realize that the auto market is not competitive. However, if all we want to know is how an increase in the price of steel or a fall in consumer income affects the price and quantity of autos, then it’s fine to use this model.
In general, making unrealistic assumptions is okay, even desirable, if they simplify the analysis without affecting its validity.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

12. The demand for cars demand equation: Qd = D (P, Y)
shows that the quantity of cars consumers demand is related
to the price of cars (P) and
aggregate income (Y)
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

13. Digression: functional notation
General functional notation shows only that the variables are related.
Q d = D (P, Y)
A specific functional form shows the precise quantitative relationship.
Example: D (P, Y) = 60 – 10P + 2Y
A list of the variables that affect Q d
We often aren’t concerned with the exact quantitative relationship between variables, so we will often just use the general functional notation.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

14. The market for cars: Demand
P Price of cars D
The demand curve shows the relationship between quantity demanded and price, other things equal.
Q Quantity of cars
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

15. The market for cars: Supply
Q Quantity of cars
P Price of cars S
The supply curve shows the relationship between quantity supplied and price, other things equal. D
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

16. The market for cars: Equilibrium
Q Quantity of cars
P Price of cars S D
equilibrium price
equilibrium quantity
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

17. The effects of an increase in income
Q Quantity of cars
P Price of cars S D1 Q1 P1 D2
An increase in income increases the quantity of cars consumers demand at each price… P2 Q2
…which increases the equilibrium price and quantity.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

18. The effects of a steel price increase
Q Quantity of cars
P Price of cars S1 D Q1 P1 S2
An increase in Ps reduces the quantity of cars producers supply at each price… P2 Q2
…which increases the market price and reduces the quantity.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

19. Endogenous vs. Exogenous Variables
The values of endogenous variables are determined in the model.
The values of exogenous variables are determined outside the model: the model takes their values & behavior as given.
In the model of supply & demand for cars,
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

20. Classroom Example
Write down demand and supply equations for wireless phones; include two exogenous variables in each equation.
Draw a supply-demand graph for wireless phones.
Use your graph to show how a change in one of your exogenous variables affects the model’s endogenous variables.
Endogenous variables: price of wireless phones, quantity of wireless phones
Exogenous variables:
consumer income
price of wireless phone service (a complement)
price of landline phones & phone service (a substitute)
technology
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

21. A Multitude of Models
No one model can address all the issues we care about.
e.g., our supply-demand model of the car market…
can tell us how a fall in aggregate income affects price and quantity of cars.
cannot tell us why aggregate income falls.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

22. A Multitude of Models
So we will learn different models for studying different issues (e.g., unemployment, inflation, long-run growth).
For each new model, you should keep track of:
assumptions
which variables are endogenous, and which are exogenous
the questions it can help us understand, and those it cannot
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

23. Prices: Flexible vs. Sticky
Market clearing: An assumption that prices are flexible, adjust to equate supply and demand.
In the short run, many prices are sticky – adjust sluggishly in response to changes in supply or demand. For example,
many labor contracts fix the nominal wage for a year or longer
many magazine publishers change prices only once every 3-4 years
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

24. Prices: Flexible vs. Sticky
The economy’s behavior depends partly on whether prices are sticky or flexible:
If prices are sticky, then demand won’t always equal supply. This helps explain
unemployment (excess supply of labor)
why firms cannot always sell all the goods they produce
Long run: prices flexible, markets clear, economy behaves very differently
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

25. Microeconomic Thinking & Macroeconomic Models
Microeconomics is the study of how individual households and firms make decisions.
Households maximize utility
Firms maximize profit.
Modern macroeconomic theory is typically based on microfoundations of macroeconomic behavior.
Sometimes these microfoundations are implicit, other times they are explicit in the models used.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

26. Outline of this Course
Introduction to Macroeconomic Data & Analysis (Ch. 1-2)
How macroeconomists think and how we measure key macroeconomic variables.
Classical and Growth Theory (Ch. 2-8)
How the economy works in the long run, when prices are flexible.
The standard of living and its growth rate over the very long run.
The portion of the book described on this slide comprises the core material. It is organized around time horizons: the long run (flexible prices), the very long run (growth in capital, the population, and technology itself), and the short run (sticky prices and economic fluctuations).
But wait! There’s more! See the next slide….
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

27. Outline of this Course Business Cycle Theory (Romer, Ch. 1-3; Ch. 13)
How the economy works in the short run, when prices are sticky.
Policy debates (Ch. 14 & 19)
Should the government try to smooth business cycle fluctuations?
Which macro models are “best”?
Microeconomic foundations (Ch. 16)
Insights from looking at the behavior of consumers, from a microeconomic perspective.
All of the chapters listed on this slide are very good, but some instructors find that the semester isn’t always long enough to cover all of this material. Feel free to select chapters from these parts that best match the needs and interests of you and your students.
*** Are you covering Chapter 2 next? The PowerPoint presentation for Chapter 2 includes some in-class exercises to immediately reinforce concepts as they are presented. These exercises also help break up the lecture into smaller pieces. If you’d like to try them, please ask your students to bring calculators to the next class meeting.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

28. Chapter Summary
Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole, including
growth in incomes,
changes in the overall level of prices,
the unemployment rate.
Macroeconomists attempt to explain the economy and to devise policies to improve its performance.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory

29. Chapter Summary
Economists use different models to examine different issues.
Models with flexible prices describe the economy in the long run; models with sticky prices describe the economy in the short run.
Macroeconomic events and performance arise from many microeconomic transactions, so macroeconomics uses many of the tools of microeconomics.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
ECON 100A : Intermediate Macro Theory