1. Literature What other scholars have to offer

2. Alternative Methods It's always good to check the robustness!

3. Main Method Bread and Peace (Hibbs)

4. Alternatives Political Business Cycles (Nordhaus) Macroeconomy driven by elections Manipulation by policy tools to boost chances Endogenous election timing a function of economy (Berument)

5. Alternatives Econometrics and Presidential Elections (Fair) Kramer: voter behavior depends on economy Republican/Democrat V= a1 + a2t + a3I+ a4DPER + a5g*I + a6p*I + u

6. Alternatives Time-for-Change Model (Abramowitz) A referendum on the incumbent's performance Robust results (2% margin for 2008) Noneconomic (political) and economic variables

7. Alternatives Economics and Elections in W. Europe (Chappel, Veiga) 13 countries 37 years Political responsibility + economic perception

8. Alternatives Of Time and Presidential Election Forecasts (Erikson, Wlezien) Hibbsian

9. Endogeneity/Exogeneity Surfing on the cycles Exogenous: create a cycle Endogenous: surf a cycle The effects of GDP Growth only

10. The End of Economic Voting? Check whether political responsibility is more important through the other theories.

11. Some alternatives (PBCs and OETs) Hibbs is generally accepted Challenges to robustness Political Implications