1. The Euro-Med Agreements. Some lessons for Syria Jose-Maria Garcia-Alvarez-Coque, Professor of Economics, UPV, Valencia, jmgarcia@upvnet.upv.esjmgarcia@upvnet.upv.es “The Contribution of Agriculture and Rural Development to the Process of Economic Reforms of Syria” (Damascus, 1-2 July 2008)

2. Syrian agro-food exports (2001 – 2006) based on UN data (see SAT)  Per capita exports  Market diversification  Product diversification Live animals, cotton, olive oil, edible vegetables and fruits account for nearly 50% of non-oil exports  The EU accounts for nearly 18 of total agricultural exports. Out of it:  Cotton and textile by-products:40%  Olive oil: 27%

3. Factors of export success: Market access in foreign markets Adaptation to global supply chains + Competitive advantages Comparative advantages (factor driven economy)

4. Syrian rank in GCI (out of 48 ‘factor driven’ economies) Basic requirements Institutions+ Infrastructure+ Macroeconomy+ Health and primary education++ Efficiency enhancers Higher education and training+ Market efficiency- - Access to technology- Innovation factors Business sophistication+ Innovation≈ Source:WEF ++ 1 to 8 + 9 to 19 -+ 20 to 25 - 26 to 36 -- 37 to 48

5. Factors of export success Market access in Foreign markets Adaptation to global supply chains + Competitive advantages Comparative advantages (factor driven economy)

6. EMAs in force Country1995199619971998199920002001200220032004 Tunisia Morocco Jordan Lebanon Egypt Syria??

7. The EU market-access issue  The Association Agreement will open: New market opportunities. Stable framework for trade  So far trade preferences have not become a great impulse of SMC exports to the EU, but a continuation of traditional trade flows  Doha negotiations could change the picture  On what depends the benefits of the Association Agreement?

8. Percentage of ‘potential exports’ to the EU Group of countries: Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon Source: Martí Selva and Alvarez-Coque (2007)

9. Doha may have some impact Effects of a MFN removal of the entry price system applied to EU tomato imports Variation in sales to the EU (%) Intra UE-25-2,5 Marruecos61,4 Turquía-4,6 Sources: EU Commission (2008), Garcia Alvarez-Coque et al. (2007)

10. Factors of export success: Market access in foreign markets Adaptation to global supply chains + Competitive advantages Comparative advantages (factor driven economy)

11. The traditional marketing Farmers Local commissioners Packing houses Exporters Foreign market Wholesale market Commissioners

12. Adaptation to supply chains Stakeholders in value chains share interests in cost reduction, quality upgrading and risk management. Need to understand what enables coordination forms in the value chain to perform successfully. Value chain competitiveness needs targeted measures different from traditional subsidies

13. Need for a systemic approach Government bureaucracy Access to financing Corruption Inadequately educated workforce Foreign currency regulations Supply of infrastructure Restrictive labour regulations Tax regulations Market efficiency Access to technology

14. Areas for research Impacts of trade liberalization, detailed by product, season and territory  The issue of preferences versus multilateral liberalization  The growing role of SPS and TBT standards, including the quality policy of large retailers Supply chains and the agro-food system Domestic Policies Transnational cooperation is a must for the analysis of Euro Mediterranean integration: research groups, workshops

15. Thanks!