1. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics STD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Bilateral flows of remittances Fabiana Cerasa OECD Statistics Directorate Agenda Item 20 c Agenda …, STD/SES/TAGS; 1 st WPTGS Meeting 22.-24.09.2008, Paris

2. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Introduction Update of the OECD paper “Working abroad – the benefits flowing from nationals working in other economies” (OECD 2003) by Anne Harrison, et al Data presented for reference year 2000 have been updated to 2005 The present work is divided in two parts: –Migration: a bilateral migration matrix is estimated starting from the matrix presented in the World Bank report South- South, Migration and Remittances –Remittances: the bilateral migration matrix is used to obtain a global picture of the size of remittances flowing from one country to another 2

3. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Migration Starting point: the World Bank bilateral migration matrix Some transformations to improve the quality of data and to follow the original paper –Removal of refugees (UN) and of migrants who acquired citizenships (OECD database 2007) –Allocation of migrants living in middle/high income countries, whose countries of origin are totally unknown (Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalization and Poverty-University of Sussex-2000) 3

4. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Migration Millions20002005 Total Migrants (UN) 175191 Refugees (UN) 1613 Acquisition citizenship (OECD database) 1410 Total Unallocated 812 Total migrants allocated 137155 4

5. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Remittances Source of data:  IMF Balance of Payments Yearbook  Additional sources for no declaring countries World Bank Migration and Remittances Factbook World Bank South-South Migration and Remittances OECD Statistics on International Trade National sources Remittances=Workers’ Remitt + Compensation of Employees We end up with a total amount of Remittances:  Credit: $ 234.1 bn  Debit: $ 187.1 bn 5

6. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Remittances  The bilateral remittances matrix is built multiplying the remittance per capita sent from the destination country by the number of migrants living there grouped by country of origin  The final matrix shows remittances flowing between 60 countries and 18 regions  Assumptions of the model: Each migrant is supposed to send a fixed amount of money home, regardless of the country of origin Only migrants send money to another country The country receiving the money sent is always and exclusively the country of birth 6

7. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Key findings Migration 7 2000MillionsPercentage Coming from: Going to: OECDROWTotalOECDROWTotal OECD22.234.156.316.224.941.2 ROW2.577.980.41.85758.8 Total24.7112136.718.181.9100 2005MillionsPercentage Coming from: Going to: OECDROWTotalOECDROWTotal OECD37.842.880.624.427.651.9 ROW4.470.274.62.945.248.1 Total42.2113155.227.272.8100

8. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Key findings Remittances’ flows 8 2000$ BillionPercentage Remittances To: From: OECDROWTotalOECDROWTotal OECD 38.9 29.3 68.235.126.461.5 ROW 0.7 42.0 42.70.637.938.5 Total 39.6 71.3 110.935.764.3100.0 2005$ BillionPercentage Remittances To: From: OECDROWTotalOECDROWTotal OECD 74.9 43.3 118.340.123.263.2 ROW 4.4 64.4 68.82.334.436.8 Total 79.3 107.8 187.142.457.6100.0

9. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Conclusions With exceptions, contrast between the OECD and ROW  OECD: source of remittances  ROW: destination of remittances Contrary to what is commonly believed  OECD are not the main destination for migrants coming from ROW  Migrants remain mainly in the continent in which they were born Migrants from OECD countries command higher wages and remit more per head than migrants from ROW countries In line with conclusions for 2000 The quality of the data limits the validity of these conclusions 9

10. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Remittances questionnaire 10

11. STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Questions for discussion Do delegates agree to the distribution of the remittances questionnaire to (non_EU) OECD and accession countries, using Eurostat information for EU countries? Comments are invited please on the draft report on estimated bilateral flows at annex 2 (including any written comments by 15 October) Do delegates wish to comment on any other aspect of the current approach of the OECD Statistics Directorate, outlined above, to try to assist the international effort to improve remittances data? 11