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Market Overview January 2011. Total Single Family Sales for Jan-Nov 2007 vs. 2008 vs. 2009 vs. 2010 Douglas and Sarpy Counties 6097 7425 6524 7416.

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Presentation on theme: "Market Overview January 2011. Total Single Family Sales for Jan-Nov 2007 vs. 2008 vs. 2009 vs. 2010 Douglas and Sarpy Counties 6097 7425 6524 7416."— Presentation transcript:

1 Market Overview January 2011

2 Total Single Family Sales for Jan-Nov 2007 vs. 2008 vs. 2009 vs. 2010 Douglas and Sarpy Counties 6097 7425 6524 7416

3 Sales Trends 2009 vs. 2010 -24% -11% +6.5% +4%+5% -16%

4 Total Sales 2009 vs. 2010

5 Inventories Increase in 2010 +17% +11% +13% -7% +3% +12%

6 New Construction Inventories Increase in 2010 +19% +15% -16% -45% +4% +8%

7 Median Price $75,000 - $150,000 1%

8 Median Price $150,000 - $250,000 1%

9 Median Price $250,000 - $400,000 2%

10 Median Price $400,000 - $600,000 2%

11 Median Price $600,000 - $2,000,000 11%

12 Total Sales Fall ’09 vs. Fall ‘10

13 Consumer Expectations Survey AUGMAY JULY NOV JAN 20072010 2010 2010 2011 89.285.3 66.6 74.2 80.3

14 2010-2011 GDP FORECAST FANNIE MAE Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2.1 0.7 1.2 0.9 Source: http://www.fanniemae.com/media/economics

15 NATIONAL HOUSING FORECAST FANNIE MAE 2009 2010 2011 Mean Mean Forecast Mean 5,530,000 5,199,000 5,432,000 CHANGE -6% CHANGE +5%

16 Nebraska Economy AgricultureStrong InsuranceStrong Manufacturing Down Transportation Down Housing Down Never has a “bubble UnemploymentStrong Lowest Rate in the U.S.

17 35.9 Source: http://www.creighton.edu/business/economicoutlook/index.php

18 2010 VS. 2009 Non Ag. Business/Finance +1.5% Manufacturing +2.5% Construction No Growth

19 UNL Bureau of Business Research 1.) Recovery likely to continue 2.) Rick of Double Dip Recession 3.) Weakness in Real Estate sector “FEARFULLY OPTIMISTIC”

20 Positives 1.Lower House Prices 2.Higher savings rates - Lower indebtedness - Spending in line with income 3. Income growth supports - Consumption - Job Growth - Rising working hours

21 Positives cont. 4.Business Growth - Exports - Technology 5. Fiscal Government restraint - Divided Federal Gov’t - Cost restraint Federal and State Levels - Gov’t cost restraint would encourage investment * Domestically * Internationally

22 Negatives Slow new construction Buyers inability to sell existing home to enable purchase of a new home Increased remodeling Strong refinance activity

23 The 2011 Outlook Omaha Outlook Employment+1.5% Population+1.5% Income+4.5% New Jobs7000 Self EmployedStrong Growth Labor ForceSlow Growth Unemployment Rate to 4.5% Source: UNL Bureau of Business Research

24 The 2011 Outlook Real Estate Markets 1.Improving Consumer Expectations 2. Improving Omaha Economic Conditions 3. Moderate but steady increase in activity in early 2011 4. High Inventories 5. Prices initially soft but firm up as inventories decline

25 The 2011 Outlook HIGH END HOUSING Market focus on “needs” vs. wants Conservative buyer behavior High Real Estate Taxes Soft Pricing Trends

26 The 2011 Outlook 1.Dependant on Market Mood a. Election - Done b. Tax Laws - Done c. Diminished expectation of new “stimulus”

27 The 2011 Outlook 2.Pent up Demand a. Build up of buyers who went to the sidelines b. New buyers/sellers will move for typical reasons c. Could result in an active spring market

28 The 2011 Outlook General Market Sales fall between 2008 and 2009 levels Mean for 1 st half of 2008 & 2009 693 sales per month in 2008 vs. 806 sales per month in 2009

29 www.mitchellassociates.com Thank You


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