1. Jim Wilt Chief Software Architect Metrics Reporting, Inc. 2010 jim.wilt@metricsreporting.com (616) 617-3775 CLOUD COMPUTING – WHO WINS, WHO LOSES, HOW TO SURVIVE

2. GOALS FROM THIS TALK… Common understanding of what Cloud Computing actually is How to circumvent push-back through increased competencies in your knowledge of cloud architectures (Maybe you’re pushing back? Let’s change that!) Where to focus your architectural efforts to shape Cloud Computing

3. Above the Clouds: A Berkeley View of Cloud Computing Above the Clouds: A Berkeley View of Cloud Computing Alan Hakimi Andy Catlin Andy Ruth Clayton Christensen’s The Innovator’s Dilemma Clayton Christensen’s The Innovator’s Dilemma David Chappell Miha Kralj Norm Judah Pallaw Sharma Pat Helland Richard Webb Ryan Dunn Scott Andersen Simon Guest RIDING ON THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS…

4. LOOKING BACKWARD TO SEE FORWARD… Can I really see the future by looking back?

5. 1980

6. With great uncertainty, Enterprises enter the PC era

7. 1995

8. With great uncertainty, Enterprises enter the Internet era

9. 2010

10. With great uncertainty, Enterprises contemplate the cloud

11. WHAT REALLY IS THE CLOUD ANYWAY? What’s The Future (WTF)?

12. WHAT THE CLOUD IS NOT (THOUGH SOME CLAIM IT IS)… Consolidation + Virtualization - Licenses (let’s beat the system) Outsourced Infrastructure Hosted SOA Services (although they may be used in cloud solutions)

13. WHAT THE CLOUD IS (IN TERMS OF EXISTING TECHNOLOGIES)… GRID + SOA + Fabric Elastic Computing Simple “ pay as you go model ”

14. TODAY’S DATA CENTER… 100% Capacity (what I pay for) 85% Capacity (most I can use) My Infrastructure My utilization over time

15. TODAY’S DATA CENTER - BY THE NUMBERS $1.50/CPU Hour $1.76/CPU Hour Net $1500/Day for 850 Max CPU Hours $1500/Day for 420 CPU Hours Used

16. CLOUD COMPUTING… Unlimited Capacity Infrastructure High Availability via Replication/Duplication My utilization over time

17. CLOUD COMPUTING - BY THE NUMBERS $2.25/CPU Hour $945 for 420 CPU Hours Used

18. PRIVATE CLOUDS…

19. 1985

20. The Irma Card was the crutch the Enterprise used to adopt the PC

21. PRIVATE CLOUDS…

22. WHAT ARE THE CLOUD APPLICATION MODELS? How do I choose?

24. SO, THEN, WHO WINS & WHO LOSES? How about another flash-back?

25. 1980

26. You Win if you… Saw the potential in this new platform Invested in throw-away investigations and practiced restraint in adoption Learned with new initiatives and began migration as both your knowledge and the PC matured Repurposed your talent, early, to know the PC platform and its tools Implemented technology trends ahead of the curve (i.e., before they were automatic/built into the tools) You Win if you… Saw the potential in this new platform Invested in throw-away investigations and practiced restraint in adoption Learned with new initiatives and began migration as both your knowledge and the PC matured Repurposed your talent, early, to know the PC platform and its tools Implemented technology trends ahead of the curve (i.e., before they were automatic/built into the tools) You Lose if you… Considered the PC a threat to the enterprise Tried to make the mainframe a PC Tried to standardize too fast (before the market matured) Adopted the wrong PC OS (non-MS/DOS) Did not realize the necessity for short-term investments to rule out what works, what doesn’t Failed to realize the potentials yet to come and build upon their future You Lose if you… Considered the PC a threat to the enterprise Tried to make the mainframe a PC Tried to standardize too fast (before the market matured) Adopted the wrong PC OS (non-MS/DOS) Did not realize the necessity for short-term investments to rule out what works, what doesn’t Failed to realize the potentials yet to come and build upon their future

27. 1980

28. 1995

29. You Win if you… Saw the potential in this new platform Invested in throw-away investigations and practiced restraint in adoption Learned with new initiatives and began migration as both your knowledge and the Internet matured Repurposed your talent, early, to know distributed apps/platforms and their tools Implemented technology trends ahead of the curve (i.e., before they were automatic/built into the tools) You Win if you… Saw the potential in this new platform Invested in throw-away investigations and practiced restraint in adoption Learned with new initiatives and began migration as both your knowledge and the Internet matured Repurposed your talent, early, to know distributed apps/platforms and their tools Implemented technology trends ahead of the curve (i.e., before they were automatic/built into the tools) You Lose if you… Thought the Internet was just a fad Failed to understand DNA and its value Invested too early in HTML tools and delayed adoption of server-side tools as they matured Standardized on the wrong browser (non-IE) Did not realize the necessity for short-term investments to rule out what works, what doesn’t Failed to invest to build the necessary infrastructure and distributed app dev talent You Lose if you… Thought the Internet was just a fad Failed to understand DNA and its value Invested too early in HTML tools and delayed adoption of server-side tools as they matured Standardized on the wrong browser (non-IE) Did not realize the necessity for short-term investments to rule out what works, what doesn’t Failed to invest to build the necessary infrastructure and distributed app dev talent

30. 1995

31. 2010

32. You Win if you… See potential in this new platform Invest in throw-away investigations and practiced restraint in adoption Learn with new initiatives and consider migration after both your knowledge and the cloud mature Repurpose your talent, early, to know and understand cloud apps/platforms and their tools Implement technology trends ahead of the curve (i.e., before they are automatic/built into tools) You Win if you… See potential in this new platform Invest in throw-away investigations and practiced restraint in adoption Learn with new initiatives and consider migration after both your knowledge and the cloud mature Repurpose your talent, early, to know and understand cloud apps/platforms and their tools Implement technology trends ahead of the curve (i.e., before they are automatic/built into tools) You Lose if you… Think the cloud is a threat to the enterprise Fail to invest in understanding the Azure infrastructure, cost model, and solution implementation features/capabilities Architect your cloud solutions too much like your DNA/SOA solutions/not take advantage of redundancy/elasticity Attempt to create cloud-agnostic solutions Fail to financially model your solutions You Lose if you… Think the cloud is a threat to the enterprise Fail to invest in understanding the Azure infrastructure, cost model, and solution implementation features/capabilities Architect your cloud solutions too much like your DNA/SOA solutions/not take advantage of redundancy/elasticity Attempt to create cloud-agnostic solutions Fail to financially model your solutions

33. 2010 Compromise breeds mediocrity…

34. MITIGATING PUSHBACK Fight fire with soothing water…

35. MITIGATING PUSHBACK…

37. HOW TO SURVIVE… First & foremost, invest in yourself

38. HOW TO SURVIVE – ESTABLISH COMPETENCY IN THE PLATFORM

39. HOW TO SURVIVE – ESTABLISH COMPETENCY IN THE COSTS

40. HOW TO SURVIVE – ESTABLISH COMPETENCY IN ALIGNMENT OF TIPPING POINTS

41. HOW TO SURVIVE – ESTABLISH COMPETENCY IN THE UNKNOWNS

42. HOW TO SURVIVE – COMBINE RESOURCES INTO DREAM TEAMS Infrastructure Solutions/Dev Great Cloud Value

43. CALL TO ACTION Go, experiment, learn, fail, and shape the cloud!