1. Consequences for biodiversity of large scale biomass production MNP Rob Alkemade Michel Bakkenes Ben ten Brink (project leader) Bas Eickhout Mireille de Heer Tom Kram Ton Manders Mark van Oorschot Fleur Smout Detlef van Vuuren Henk Westhoek UNEP-WCMC: Lera Miles Igor Lysenko Lucy Fish UNEP-GRID Arendal: Christian Nellemann LEI-WUR Hans van Meijl Andrzej Tabeau

2. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 20062 Overview Biodiversity indicators Methodology Baseline scenario Climate mitigation (biomass production included) conclusions

3. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 20063 Which policy options may reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010 (-> 2050)? at the global, regional and biome levels? at what cost? biodiversity time Options? Global Biodiversity Outlook baseline 2000

4. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 20064 Options 1.WTO liberalisation agricultural marked, 2.WTO + Poverty alleviation in Africa 3.Sustainable meat production 4.Climate mitigation (max + 2 o C; 450 ppm) 5.Sustainable forest (wood plantations) 6.Protected areas (20% per biome)

5. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 20065 Biodiversity Convention of Biodiversity (CBD) –Biodiversity encompasses the variety of life at the level of ecosystems, species and genes Indicators (a.o.) –Area of specific biomes, ecosystems and habitats –The abundance and distribution of selections of species –Coverage of protected areas –Status of threatened species: Red list index

6. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 20066 Biodiversity loss? homogenisation “Fishing down the foodweb (Pauly, 2001)”

7. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 20067 Which indicator? Time Mean Species Abundance (MSA) MSA

8. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 20068 Biodiversity decrease 100% 0% 50% Map color

9. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 20069 Changes in: Population Economicgrowth Technology lifestyle (meat cons) Indirect drivers Food demand Energy demand Energy mix Wood demand Food trade pressures Land use change Climate change N-deposition Forestry Infrastructure fragmentation Effects Biodiversity Methodolgy GTAP – TIMER – IMAGE ---- > GLOBIO 3 model

10. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200610 Relationships pressure – mean species abundance Land use change climate forestsgrasslands forests tundra Biofuels: Crops (maize/sugarcane): 0.1 Woody biofuels: 0.2

11. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200611 MSA = LUC * C * N * I * F MSA = Biodiversity of a region LUC = biodiversity value for land use type C = biodiversity loss due to climate change N = biodiversity loss due to Nitrogen pollution I = biodiversity loss due to Infrastructure F = biodviversity loss due to Fragmentation Overall Mean species abundance

12. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200612 Baseline scenario Characteristics (2050): Current policies Kyoto 1.5 x global population 2.5 x global energy use 3 x income per person growth of agricultural productivity 5 % decrease of agricultural land rel to 2000, shift towards crops Loss of biodiversity (MSA) of 7-8 % (from 70% MSA in 2000 to 63% in 2050) Sources: OECD, IEA, FAO

13. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200613 Biodiversity loss in the future Fred Langeweg, Greenweek Brussels 30-5-06

14. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200614 Biodiversity loss in the future Fred Langeweg, Greenweek Brussels 30-5-06

15. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200615 Biodiversity loss in the future Fred Langeweg, Greenweek Brussels 30-5-06

16. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200616 Global loss: 70% -> 63% 63%

17. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200617 Baseline and biofuel option comparison (2050) Baseline Ca. 1.8 0 C T increase Ca.630 ppm CO 2 equi. Emission 19 Pg C/yr (in 2020: 14 Pg C/yr) Energy use: 850 Ej 730 EJ fossil 25 EJ modern biofuels 95 EJ other 0.2 milj. Km 2 Biofuels Ca. 1.5 0 C T increase Ca. 500 ppm CO 2 equi. Emission 6 Pg C/yr (in 2020: 12 Pg C/yr) Energy use: 650 EJ 380 EJ fossil 150 EJ modern biofuels 120 EJ other 6 milj. Km 2

18. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200618 Allocation of biofuel production Extra area ca. 500 miljoen ha on low productive land: –Savannah –Tundra –Grassland systems Energy crops for 100 miljoen ha on abandoned agricultural land No extra conversion of forests No competition with food crops

19. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200619 + 10% Agricultural area climate

20. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200620 Probable location of biofuel crops

21. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200621

22. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200622 Effects of biomass production

23. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200623 Effects of biomass production

24. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200624 Effects of biomass production

25. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200625 On the longer term Using current model Climate effect > Land use effect <

26. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200626 Conclusions Biomass production does help mitigating climate change, but land is needed to produce it, inevitably at the cost of natural areas Mid – term (2050): bio-fuel production has a negative impact on biodiversity on global scale Long term (after 2100): A positive effect may be possible

27. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200627 Thank you

28. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200628 Which policy options may reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010 (-> 2050)? at the global, regional and biome levels? at what cost? biodiversity time Options? Question: baseline 2000

29. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200629 Which biomes & regions?

30. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200630 Which biodiversity loss? Decrease in abundance of many original species increase in abundance of a few, often man-favoured species as a result of human interventions homogenisation

31. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200631 Design of model framework for GLOBIO 3 GLC 2000 IMAGE Infrastructure Land use Nitrogen Climate roads Effect of Land use Effect of nitrogen Effect of climate Effect of patch size Effect of Infrastructure MSA GLOBIO3

32. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200632 Option 5: Sustainable forestry plantations produce 2-10 x semi-natural forest wood plantations meet demand by 2050 6.5% increase “agricultural” area Logged area baseline Logged area option Logged plantation Logged forest

33. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200633 Conclusions Go for a smart combination of options Initial losses unavoidable in structural solutions You have to lose a fly to catch a fish Achieving the 2010-target a good signal? Biodiversity Structural solutions Baseline scenario 2000 2050 > 2100 Turning point ? Biofuel crops Plantations Poverty alleviation

34. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200634 Slimme maatregel mix?: (niet doorgerekend) Combinatie van meat, forestry & protected areas ! Klimaat mitigatie zonder biofuels? Geleide liberalisatie: vul yield-gap Zuid (straf op conversie) Vrijkomende landbouwgrond: plantage, natuurherstel

35. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200635 Biodiversity gains & losses Sub-Saharan Arica

36. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200636 Overzicht: areaal effect per optie in 2050 per biome

37. Rob Alkemade June 13 th 200637 Stylized relationship between human development (HDI) and productive ecological capital (NCI) 100% 0 HDI NCI