1. Linking policies through land use scenarios to ecosystem services loss Ana Paula Dutra de Aguiar Eloi Lennon Dalla Nora São José dos Campos, April of 2014

2. CST 401/2011 2 Topics Introduction:  Modeling approaches  International x regional factors Results  Eloi’s BRAmazon+BRCerrado results (Scenarios GAM, RAM, GAM+BT, RAM+BT)  AMAZALERT BRAmazon results – Scenario A, B and C (2100)

3. Introduction

4. CST 401/2011 4 General structure of LUC models  Despite the diversity of land use models found in the literature it is possible to identify a common functional structure that is valid for most of the available cases; Dalla-Nora et al., (no prelo)

5. CST 401/2011 5 LUC MODELS FOR THE AMAZON Laurance et al., 2001 2020 2050 2030 2050 Aguiar et al., 2006 Lapola et al., 2011 Nepstad et al., 2008 Soares-Filho et al., 2006

6. CST 401/2011 6 Quantity of change in LUC models  None of the previous studies were able to plausibly capture the general trajectory of land cover change observed in this region during the last decade; Dalla-Nora et al., (no prelo)

7. CST 401/2011 7 Quantity of change in LUC models Modeling approaches:  Global approach  Intra-regional approach Dalla-Nora et al., (no prelo)

8. CST 401/2011 8 Model results and Amazon LUC dynamics  Models structure requires a clear differentiation between the spatial and underlying drivers of change; Laurance e al., 2001 Machado, 2002

9. CST 401/2011 9 Model results and Amazon LUC dynamics  If Amazon deforestation was a result of price movements, we would expect that the slowdown in deforestation would be conjunctural and temporary; Dalla-Nora et al., (no prelo)

10. CST 401/2011 10 Model results and Amazon LUC dynamics Protected areas (PAs)  240 new PAs from 2004  +65% over 2000-2004  55% of the remaining forests. Credit access  All lines of rural credit  -65% (all rural municipalities)  -77% (MT, PA, RO) Command and control  Monitoring and enforcement  +8.823 fines  70 times more over 2000-2004 Dalla-Nora et al., (no prelo)

11. CST 401/2011 11 Model results and Amazon LUC dynamics  Previous modeling studies were not able to integrate the global and regional forces that shape land use dynamics in the Amazon;  Scenarios' formulation was also quite simplistic which compromised their ability to explore contrasting pathways;  It's necessary to adopt an innovative modeling framework to represent land use systems as open systems;

12. Modeling results combining MAGNET and LuccME

13. CST 401/2011 13 Eloi Dalla Nora’s thesis Dalla-Nora et al., (submitted)  The central idea is to represent land systems as open systems;  Global scale  Regional scale  Direct LUC drivers  Underlying LUC drivers  Intra-regional dynamics Lucc-ME

14. CST 401/2011 14 Land demand Dalla-Nora et al., (submitted)  National land demand is split over AEZs, as defined in the GTAP-8 LUC-Database, the GeoDB consistent with the Economic GTAP-8 DB used in MAGNET; Spatial distribution of the global AEZs and Brazil’s biome-driven AEZs aggregation

15. CST 401/2011 15 Land allocation Aguiar et al., (2012)  Land demand projections are allocated based on spatially explicit LUC models built on top of the LuccME Framework;

16. CST 401/2011 16 Scenarios  A global baseline scenario (based on USDA (2012) and IPCC (2013) GDP and population projections) was run testing different regimes of land use regulation up to 2050 ; Population Growth World Brazil 33%19% GDP Growth WorldBrazil 183%185% Production Growth WorldBrazil 109%110% Dalla-Nora et al., (submitted)

17. CST 401/2011 17 Land demand  Such strategy allowed to simulate key land use policies for the Amazon; Dalla-Nora et al., (submitted)

18. CST 401/2011 18 Scenarios Dalla-Nora et al., (submitted)

19. CST 401/2011 19 ACCESSIBILITY – SCENARIO RAM (AMAZALERT C 203020252015 2010 2050 2042 Paved Roads - Log10(Minimum distance to the nearest Federal or State road) Unpaved Roads - Log10(Minimum distance to the nearest unpaved Federal or State road) Connection to National Markets (index representing the degree of connectivity to SP and NE through the roads network) Very closeVery distant Low High Very closeVery distant

20. CST 401/2011 20 2022 202020182010 PROTECTED AREAS - SCENARIOS A and B 2010 2050 PROTECTED AREAS - SCENARIO C 2010 2050

21. CST 401/2011 21 Land allocation  Land demand projections could also lead to contrasting land cover change patters; RAM GAM

22. CST 401/2011 22 Land allocation  Biofuel targets could strength the deforestation patters observed under the GAM and RAM scenarios; RAM+BT GAM+BT

23. CST 401/2011 23 Some results for the AMAZON

24. AMAZALERT RESULTS

25. CST 401/2011 25 Amount of change LUCCME Demand (scenarios) MAGNET global model Stakeholder inputs Spatial Patterns LUCCME Potential/Allocation (scenarios) Visions – Stakeholder inputs Biophisical, socioeconomic and institutional factors affect the Demand and Allocation

26. CST 401/2011 26 Amount of change LUCCME Demand (scenarios) MAGNET global model Stakeholder Spatial Patterns LUCCME Potential/Allocation (scenarios) Visions – Stakeholder inputs Biophisical, socioeconomic and institutional factors affect the Demand and Allocation Global: population, GDP and production growth + biofuels targets Regional: roads, protected areas, credit Regional: roads, protected areas, law enforcement Storylines and contrasting rates of change

27. CST 401/2011 27 IV - Contexto institucional Futuro e Trajetória em torno de quatro temas: I - Recursos naturais II - Desenvolvimento social III - Atividades econômicas Presente DESENVOLVIMENTO SOCIOECONOMICO DESENVOLVIMENTO AMBIENTAL ALTO BAIXO CENÁRIO A: SUSTENTABILIDADE CENÁRIO B: MEIO DO CAMINHO CENÁRIO C: FRAGMENTAÇÃO E CAOS AMAZALERT 1ª e 2a OFICINA de STAKEHOLDERS

28. CST 401/2011 28 STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOPS IN BRAZIL IV - Contexto institucional Presente, Futuro e Trajetória em torno de quatro temas: I - Recursos naturais II - Desenvolvimento social III - Atividades econômicas ETAPA 1: organizações da sociedade civil e setor produtivo ETAPA 2: organizações da sociedade civil, setor produtivo, governo e pesquisadores ETAPA 1 (Belém): primeira definição dos cenários ETAPA 2 (Brasília): refinamento das trajetórias

29. CST 401/2011 29 International policies (WP4 report) International policies and initiatives UNFCCC forest management and harvested wood products accounting Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) REDD under the voluntary carbon market Standards and certification National and regional policies and initiatives outside of Amazonian nations EU renewable energy directive (EU RED) Mandatory national renewable energy targets Sustainability criteria for biofuels Sustainability Criteria for biomass for heat and power U.S. programs U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2) U.S. Stationary sources, proposed approach California Low Carbon Fuel Standard Chinese policies and trade Biofuel targets in China The current and future soybean trade between China and Brazil

30. CST 401/2011 30 Brazilian public policies affecting the Amazon (WP4 report) FOREST CODE CREDIT AND SUBSIDIES PROGRAMS SOY MORATORIUM POLICY FOR LAND TITLING LAND ZONING FOOD PURCHASE PROGRAM PAYMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES INFRASTRUCTURE FOR TRANSPORTATION AND ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE PLANS, INCLUDING REDD+ IN EACH AMAZONIAN STATE Program for the Acceleration of Development PAC Action Plan for Prevention and Control of the Legal Amazon Deforestation (PPCDAM)

31. AMAZALERT Scenario A, B and C (2100)

32. CST 401/2011 32

33. CST 401/2011 33 Some results for the AMAZON

34. CST 401/2011 34 Prepared by Eloi Dalla Nora For comparison RCP (~10 000km2)

35. CST 401/2011 35 Premises Scenario C 19500 km2yr-1 (until 2100) (ave 1996-2005) Scenario B: 3900 km2 in 2020 (20% 19500 km2) Scenario A: “Zero” Deforestation Scenario D? 10000km2

36. CST 401/2011 36 (A) Scenario A: Deforestation in 2050 (B) Scenario B: Deforestation in 2050 (C) Scenario C: Deforestation in 2050 (D) Scenario A: Secondary Vegetation in 2050 (G) Scenario A: Agriculture in 2050 (H) Scenario B: Agriculture in 2050 (I) Scenario C: Agriculture in 2050 (E) Scenario B: Secondary Vegetation in 2050 (F) Scenario C: Secondary Vegetation in 2050

37. Scenario C v28 – May 2014 BRAmazon, BRBolivia and ROBIN

38. CST 401/2011 38 (old growth or primary) Forest cover – 2100

39. CST 401/2011 39 2100(old growth or primary) Forest cover - 2050

40. CST 401/2011 40 (old growth or primary) Forest cover - 2075

41. CST 401/2011 41 (old growth or primary) Forest cover - 2100 Brazilian Amazon: 60% deforested (fragemented in most cells, 20% remaining)

42. CST 401/2011 42 Summary We can create storylines for Scenario C (RAM /RAM –GT) and Scenario A (GAM)  Usining the stakeholder meetings  mentioning the policies W4 reported Resulting in the spatial scenarios Ecosystem Services: derived indicators

43. CST 401/2011 43 Example: Derived indicator related to CO2 emissions