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A wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company Securities products offered through Wells Fargo Securities, LLC - member NASD /SIPC Retail Capital Markets August 2011
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A wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company Securities products offered through Wells Fargo Securities, LLC - member NASD /SIPC Updated September 7 th, 2011 Labor Participation Rate Employment (16+ years of age, millions) While many focus on the unemployment rate for retail sales, the more important metrics are simply the number of people employed and the overall participation rate. The fact that retail fundamentals are as strong as they are is astounding in light of these two metrics.
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A wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company Securities products offered through Wells Fargo Securities, LLC - member NASD /SIPC Updated September 7 th, 2011 Unemployment Rate Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment (000 ’ s) Zero net new jobs since Jan-00 +7.7 million 2004-2007 -6.7 million since Dec-07
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A wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company Securities products offered through Wells Fargo Securities, LLC - member NASD /SIPC Updated Sept.14 th, 2011 Retail Sales Growth - Monthly (Excl. Auto) Net worth back to 2003 levels Sales growth has clearly come off the bottom In fact, it’s back to its all time peak! Retail Sales Growth - Monthly (Excl. Auto & Gas) Monthly Retail Sales (Excl. Auto, in $ billions)
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A wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company Securities products offered through Wells Fargo Securities, LLC - member NASD /SIPC Updated July 14 th 2011 Debt Outstanding ($ trillions) Net Worth ($ in trillions)
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Retail Markets Overview 5 8 months 16 months 6 months Consumer Confidence U.S. Recessions 24 months Updated September 7 th, 2011
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Retail Markets Overview 6 Updated July 14 th, 2011 Retail GLA Deliveries (Millions) 36.0 31.2 49. 3 73.8 33.8 38.6 44.0 33.9 20.1 22.8 16.9 9.2 Retail Sales might be at ’06 levels, but supply is 13% higher 6.9 10.7 7.2 6.4 12.3
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Retail Markets Overview 7 Note: Interest Only includes loans that are interest only through entire term Updated June 6 th, 2011 Snapshot of Retail CMBS Loans by Maturity Year “California Here We Come…” Current Balance (in Billions) CA TX NY FL AZ CA NY FL TX IL CA FL TX AZ NY CA FL TX NJ NY CA TX FL NY NV CA TX FL NY PA CA FL TX NY GA HI CA TX NY IN Top-5 States (36% - 50% of Total)
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Retail Markets Overview 8 86 retailers planning to open 2 or more stores in 2011 60 retailers planning to open 20 or more stores in 2011 27 retailers planning to open 100 or more stores in 2011 National Retailers Expanding in 2011 Updated June 2011 Dollar General (600)Smashburger (100)Big Lots (50)Whole Foods (17) Family Dollar (300)Wingstop (90)Auntie Anne’s (50)Nordstrom Rack (14) CVS (275)Chick-fil-A (80)Forever 21 (50)Wal-Mart (10) Walgreens (225)hhgregg (60)Chicos (50)Hot Topic (10) 5 Guys Burgers (200)Foot Locker (60)Dick’s (40)Bloomingdale’s (4) Uniglo (200)Ross Dress for Less (60)Ann Taylor (40)jcpenney (3) Fresh & Easy (104)ULTA (60)Jo-Ann Stores (30)Nordstrom (3) SuperValu (100)Wet Seal (60)Famous Footwear (30)Macy’s (2) Panda Express (100)Baskin Robbins (60)99 Cents Only (25)Sprouts (2) Panera (100)Wet Seal (60)Lululemon Athletica (25)Trader Joe’s (2) Starbucks (100)Apple (50)Burlington Coat (20)Saks (2) Select Retailer Store Openings in 2011
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Retail Markets Overview 9 Department Office Supply Home Décor/ Improvement Specialty ApparelDiscount Electronics GroceryDrug WholesaleJewelryBooks Hobby / Salon / Pet Note: Sales reflect most recently-reported quarterly comparable sales growth Updated August 17 th 2011 Recent Same-Store Sales Growth By Category Positive YOY Growth Negative YOY Growth
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Retail Markets Overview 10 Lifestyle Neighborhood Power Malls Positive YOY Growth Negative YOY Growth Note: Sales reflect most recently-reported quarterly comparable sales growth Updated August 17 rd 2011 Recent Same-Store Sales Growth By Primary Outlet
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Retail Markets Overview 11 Flight to Safety Bargains? Grocery-Anchored!!! Or Strong Credit Major Markets All Cash or Portfolio Lenders If “B” Quality, REO assets / non-performing loans get Substantially more interest and higher pricing A Tale of Two Markets Updated November 2010 GREEN LIGHT Everything Else RED LIGHT Second Tier Tenants Or Lifestyle Centers High Occupancy Costs / Smaller Markets CMBS Quality Assets
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Retail Markets Overview 12 1.Camp Creek Marketplace (East Point, GA) Anchors: Lowe’s (NAP), Target (NAP), Marshalls, Ross, TJX, Barnes & Noble, Staples, PetSmart 97% Occupancy 6.95% Capitalization Rate, All Cash Sale 2.Crabapple and Saddlebrook Shopping Centers (Milton / Alpharetta, GA) Both Kroger Anchored (Sales of $360 to $460 psf) 94% & 98% Occupancy Blended Capitalization Rate of 5.9%. Unleveraged IRR of 7% Using a 6.5% Residual. 3.Edgewood Retail District (Atlanta, GA) Target (NAP), Kroger, Best Buy, Bed Bath & Beyond, Ross Dress for Less 97% Occupancy 6.7% Capitalization Rate, Buyer Assumed High LTV Note with High Coupon. Defeasance Would be Approximately $6M. 4.Noteworthy Sales Around the USA The Forum at Carlsbad (CA) – 4.7% cap; Village at Waugh Chapel (DC) – 6.9% cap, but has dilutive debt; DC Portfolio Under Contract at 5.6% cap Source: The Nielsen Company Updated May 17th 2010 Recent Sales / Underwriting
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