1. Click to edit Master title style China’s food security and nutrition in the global context Shenggen Fan Director General | International Food Policy Research Institute Development Research Center of the State Council Beijing | December 23, 2014

2. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Key messages  Hunger and malnutrition remain big challenges  Both global and China’s food security and nutrition are increasingly vulnerable  Policies, technologies, and institutions are critical  China’s role is crucial to end global hunger and malnutrition

3. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Hunger and malnutrition remain big challenges globally and in China

4. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Despite progress, hunger is still a problem in the world and in China Undernourishment in China and the world, 1990-2014 China is home to the second largest population of hungry people in the world Source: FAO 2014

5. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Child malnutrition is widespread Estimated prevalence of undernutrition in children under-five, 2011 (%) Source: WHO, UNICEF, and World Bank 2011, Global Nutrition Report 2014 Note: SA=South Asia; SSA=Africa south of the Sahara; LAC= Latin America and Caribbean; SEA= South-East Asia 165 million children under-five are stunted globally 8.3 million children under-five are stunted in China

6. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Overweight and obesity are rising Prevalence of overweight and obese children under-5, 1990-2020 (%) Source: de Onis, et al. 2010 Note: Asia excludes Japan; Developed Countries includes Japan Overweight and obese children to rise by 43% in developing countries (2010-2020) Source: Ng et al. 2014  In 2013 2.1 billion are overweight and obese 62% of world’s obese live in developing countries  3.4 mil. deaths annually related to overweight and obesity (Lim et al. 2012)  Overweight and obesity in Asia China: Over 27% for men and women South Asia: 20% of men, 23% of women Southeast Asia: 22% of men, 28% of women

7. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 The coexistence of multiple burdens of malnutrition Source: Global Nutrition Report 2014, Liu et al 2013  China has reduced malnutrition, but multiple burdens exist 9.4% child stunting 19.6% anemia 25% overweight  Anemia and child stunting more prevalent in rural areas  Child overweight more prevalent in urban areas Percentage of countries by number of burdens of child malnutrition (stunting, wasting, and overweight) 55% of countries with data have multiple types of under-five malnutrition

8. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Malnutrition is costly, but investments in nutrition have high returns Economic returns to US$ 1 invested in reducing stunting Source: Hoddinott et al. 2013 Economic losses per year  Malnutrition 5% of global GDP (US$3.5 trillion)  Undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies Global: 2-3% of GDP Asia: ~11% of GNP during 20 th century (but will begin to decline circa 2019)  Obesity 2% of global GDP (US$2 trillion) Source: Horton and Steckel 2013, FAO 2013, McKinsey 2014

9. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Both global and China’s food security and nutrition are increasingly vulnerable

10. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Challenges to both global and China’s food security and nutrition  Increasing population and urbanization  Rising incomes, and demand / diet changes  Growing natural resource constraints  Rising agricultural-related risks to health  Climate change and higher frequency / intensity of extreme weather events  Increasing food price spikes and volatility

11. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Growing population, urbanization, and shrinking rural labor Growing and more urban population (billions) Source: UN 2011 Urban population Rural labor Urban > Rural in 2011 WORLD CHINA Share of employment in China, % Source: FAO 2013 Cumulative real wage growth (2000 = 100) Source: ILO 2013

12. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Rising incomes and diet/demand changes Source: OECD 2010 Wealth Rising GDP per capita China’s growing middle class Source: OECD 2013 Global food demand expected to rise 60% by 2050 (FAO 2012) Change in consumption of agric. products 2009/11 to 2021 (%)

13. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Growing land and water constraints  24% of global land area affected by degradation (1981–2003)  Annual forest net loss = 5.2 mil. ha (2000-10)  Arable land per capita 65% (1970-00) expected to further 50% by 2050 Annual loss of per capita arable land in developing countries, 1961–2009 Source: FAO 2011; Nkonya et al. 2011 With “business as usual,” high water stress by 2050 puts at risk globally 52% of population 49% of grain production 45% of GDP Water stress for total renewable water withdrawn, BAU, 2050 (%) Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011

14. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 High environmental stresses in China Environmental degradation in China’s grain production Source: You, Spoor, and Ulimwengu 2010  Environmental protection lags behind  2014 Environmental Performance Index rank = 118 th out of 178 countries  Double burden of air and water pollution harms wellbeing and growth Total cost of air and water pollution = 5.8% of GDP

15. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Rising agriculture-related risks to health Picture source: ILRI 2013 Human health increasingly affected by intense food production Affects smallholders’ ability to undertake more productive and innovative activities Food safety risks Unregulated food production Increasing proximity of industrial and agricultural activities E.g. milk and rice contamination Animal-borne diseases Source: ILRI 2012

16. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Food safety challenges in China  Expansion and modernization of food system in China Weak monitoring along value chain Lack of capacity to meet standards, esp. for smallholders  Contamination of resources by industrial activities 20% of arable land is polluted  83% contaminated with inorganic material incl. cadmium, nickel, and arsenic (Government of China 2014)  Focus on agric. intensification with policies encouraging use of chemical fertilizer Fertilizer use increased by factor of 25 from 1970-2010 (Kahrl 2010)

17. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Increasing challenge from climate change Impact of climate change on mean crop yield Source: WRI 2013, IPCC 2014, World Bank 2013 Needed: 14% in crop yield per decade Happening: 20% in global cereal yields by 2050

18. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Potential climate change impact on crop yields in China Adverse impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture Source: Piao 2010

19. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Higher food price spikes and volatility Global cereal prices (US$/ton) Projected changes in global agricultural commodity prices, 2010-2050 Source: Data from FAO 2014 Source: Rosegrant et al. 2013 Notes: The changes are calculated assuming current policies are maintained

20. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Policies, technologies, and institutions are critical for achieving food security and nutrition

21. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Pathways for achieving both global and China’s food security and nutrition 1.Support policies for more efficient, inclusive, and safe food production systems 2.Advance frontiers for sustainable intensive & nutrition-sensitive technologies 3.Promote open trade and reduce food price volatility 4.Scale up productive and cross-sectoral social safety nets 5.Support south-south learning

22. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014  Improve land tenure security e.g. via certification of land use rights  Promote well-functioning land rental and sale markets  Ensure adequate compensation for requisitioning of land  Enhance land contract enforcements and establish legal grievance systems  Extend terms of rural land use rights 1. Support policies for more efficient, inclusive, and safe food production systems

23. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Support efficient, inclusive, and safe food value chains  Develop better understanding of agriculture- related disease transmissions  Upgrade legal, regulatory, and institutional framework that covers entire supply chain  Improve food safety monitoring by enhancing capacity and resources of monitoring agencies and consumers  Increase capacity of stakeholders in food supply chain to meet safety regulations  Support institutional innovations for vertical and horizontal coordination

24. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014  Increase investment in reduction of postharvest losses in developing countries China: Half of imported food from January to October 2014 was lost; requires technology, infrastructure, and post-harvest handling  Reduce food waste—educate consumers China: US$32 billion thrown away; in United States: US$124.1 billion (WRI 2013, Venkat 2011)  Employ regulation that is not overly restrictive for lesser food waste  Promote right prices of food and natural resources that fully reflect costs to environment / climate Social safety nets needed for the poor if food becomes too expensive Reduce food losses and waste

25. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 2. Advance frontiers for sustainable intensive & nutrition-sensitive technologies Expand agric. R&D investments for Breeding high yielding, high-nutrient crop and livestock varieties Conserving water and energy alongside soil nutrient-use efficiency Exploiting GHG reduction potential of agriculture through “triple win” strategies (adaptation/mitigation/productivity) High-iron and high-zinc rice Solar-powered drip irrigation Drought tolerant rice Stem rust resistant wheat Laser land leveling Nano technology food testing Picture sources: IRRI, New Agriculturist, and Zen Gardner

26. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014  Genetically modified (GM) crops can Boost yields Improve nutritional quality Increase resistance to stresses e.g. disease, pest, drought Lower fertilizer and water application  Harness potential of GM crops Strengthen biosafety regulations, M&E Leverage public private partnership in agric. R&D on GM technologies Scale up institutional innovations e.g. in finance, extension, insurance Improve communication strategy Harness the potential of genetically modified crops

27. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 Promoting sustainable intensification Nitrogen efficient technologies Impact of nitrogen efficient technologies on yields in 2050, % change Impact of nitrogen efficient technologies on kcal availability/person/day in 2050, % change Impact of nitrogen efficient technologies on # of malnourished children in 2050, % change Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014

28. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 3. Promote open trade and reduce food price volatility  Eliminate distortionary trade policies Promotes efficient allocation of resources and improves access to food  Support regional emergency food reserves Expand ASEAN+3 emergency rice reserve; improve its functioning by addressing current challenges Use lessons learned to inform scale-up in other countries  Monitor food prices and speculation IFPRI’s Food Security Portal (Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System) Agricultural Market information system (AMIS)

29. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014  Better-targeted and more productive social protection policies Short-term cushion for coping with livelihood shocks Long-term productivity-enhancing or exit opportunities for smallholders  Cross-sectoral social protection to reach poor more effectively e.g. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program Access to both safety nets and ag. support improves food security and asset building (Berhane et al. 2014) Bangladesh’s Vulnerable Group Development Program Food security and nutrition interventions with income-generating activities that target women (Ahmed et al. 2009) 4. Scale up productive social safety nets

30. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014  Exploit large knowledge and resource base between developing countries E.g. South-South Experience Exchange Facility  Improve coordination among traditional and emerging donors Create clear institutional arrangements Share key experiences via partnerships e.g. WFP  Engage in broader and more innovative partnerships National and global research institutions, e.g. CGIAR Multi-disciplinary and multi-stakeholder research partnerships, e.g. Compact2025 5. Support exchange of technologies and know-how

31. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014  Supports countries, institutions, and initiatives for eliminating hunger and undernutrition by 2025  Provides evidence and tools for countries to develop and implement context-specific road maps for action  Focuses on country-led approach with multi- sectoral, multi-stakeholder collaboration  Facilitates south-south learning Compact2025 A knowledge and innovation hub

32. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 China’s role in reducing global hunger and undernutrition is critical  Increased cooperation with Africa Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (2000) Silk Road Strategy (2014)  Participation in global institutions for financial and development assistance, i.e. New Development Bank  Agricultural technology transfer and mutual learning in institutions and policies Smallholder agriculture-led strategy for reducing hunger and poverty in China can be adapted elsewhere

33. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, December 2014 In conclusion  Hunger and malnutrition remain persistent  Food security and nutrition in China and worldwide are experiencing related challenges  Policies, technologies, and institutions are key to eliminating hunger and malnutrition  China plays a critical role to achieve the goal