1. The Future of China 1.Party 2.Economy 3.Political Development

2. 1. The Party

3. Ideology Confucius MaoDeng 221 BC-1911 1949-761978--

4. Deng Xiaoping Theory 1.“socialist market economy” 2.Priority on economic development (1982 speech)economic development 3.Nationalism: Return China to its rightful powerful position 4.CPC Leadership

5. Lessons of 1989-1991 (official in 2004) (lessons of collapse of Communism in Europe and Soviet Union) 1.Economic Reform 2.Political reform 3.Adaptive Party

6. 15 th Party Congress 1997 “Hold High The Great Banner of Deng Xiaoping Theory for an All-Round Advancement of the Cause of Building Socialism with Chinese Characteristics into the 21st Century.” Deng Xiaoping Theory becomes officialbecomes official

9. 16 th Party Congress 2002 (for reference only) Politburo Standing Committee Changes 3 rd Generation 1997-2002 1.General Secretary Jiang Zemin (President) as leader Jiang is both a reformer and conservative 2.Li Peng (Chair NPC) leader of conservative faction 3.Zhu Rongji (Premier) a leader of reformer faction 4.Li Ruihuan, pro-reform 5.Hu Jintao, middle of the road, to hedge his bets 6.Wei Jianxing 7.Li Langing

10. 4 th Generation PSC: 2002 (for reference only) 4 th Generation 2002-2007 1.General Secretary Hu Jintao (President) (chosen by Deng Xiaoping as Jiang’s successor) 2.Wu Bangguo (Chair NPC) (ally of Jiang) 3.Wen Jiabao (Premier) (ally of Hu) 4.Jia Qinglin (strong ally of Jiang) 5.Zeng Qinghong (strongest ally of Jiang, but seems to have become more independent in power) 6.Huang Ju (Vice premier) (strong ally of Jiang) 7.Wu Guanzheng (ally of Jiang) 8.Li Changchun (ally of Jiang) 9.Luo Gan (protege of Li Peng)

11. 4 th Generation PSC 2002-2012 4 th Generation 16 th Party Congress 2002 1.General Secretary Hu Jintao (President) 2.Wu Bangguo (Chair NPC) 3.Wen Jiabao (Premier) 4.Jia Qinglin 5.Zeng Qinghong 6.Huang Ju 7.Wu Guanzheng 8.Li Changchun 9.Luo Gan 4 th Generation 17 th Party Congress 2007 1.Hu JintaoHu Jintao 2.Wu BangguoWu Bangguo 3.Wen JiabaoWen Jiabao 4.Jia QinglinJia Qinglin 5.Li ChangchunLi Changchun 6.Xi Jinping****Xi Jinping 7.Li Keqiang***Li Keqiang 8.He GuoqiangHe Guoqiang 9.Zhou YongkangZhou Yongkang

12. 4 th Generation to 5 th Generation 4 th Generation 17 th Party Congress 17 th Party Congress 2007 1.Hu JintaoHu Jintao 2.Wu BangguoWu Bangguo 3.Wen JiabaoWen Jiabao 4.Jia QinglinJia Qinglin 5.Li ChangchunLi Changchun 6.Xi JinpingXi Jinping 7.Li KeqiangLi Keqiang 8.He GuoqiangHe Guoqiang 9.Zhou YongkangZhou Yongkang 5 th Generation 18 th Party Congress 18 th Party Congress 2012 1.Xi JinpingXi Jinping 2.Li KeqiangLi Keqiang 3.Zhang DejiangZhang Dejiang 4.Yu ZhengshengYu Zhengsheng 5.Liu YunshanLiu Yunshan 6.Wang QishanWang Qishan 7.Zhang GaoliZhang Gaoli

13. Xi Jinping (2012-2022) The most powerful leader since Deng? Consensus choice His policies – Anti-corruption – Party ideology – campaigns

14. Party Decentralization? Intraparty Democracy Democratic Centralism – Building Political Democracy, White PaperWhite Paper Regional Party Power Challenges to the CPC? – Falun Gong 1999

15. 2. The Economy Can economic growth last forever? – Recession – depression What happens when the economy slows down?

16. Economics and Politics economic political growth support downturn change

17. Political Impact of the Great Depression advanced welfare state (Europe, N. Am.) economic politicalWorld collapse upheavalWar II fascism (Germany, Japan, Italy)

18. Political Impact of the 1997 East Asian Crash I ncumbents lose: S. Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines economic political Soft authoritarian crisisupheaval survival Malaysia, Singapore Dictator overthrown: Indonesia

19. 3. Political Development

20. Political Stability Priority on stability Village Elections Social Unrest (“mass group incidents”)

21. The Questions? Can you create politically agnostic capitalists? How long can people remain politically agnostic?

22. Two Models for China’s Future 1. Singapore2. Taiwan “Guided Democracy”Democratic Transition Soft Authoritarianism

23. 1. Singapore as a model Internal Security Act Lee Kuan Yew

24. 2. Democratic Transition Model Economic freedoms demands for Economic growth political freedom Growth of middle class Exposure to diverse ideas Exposure to middle class and elites of Liberal- democracies Wealth in private hands Time

25. Taiwan and South Korea Democratic Transitions in 1980s

26. Democracy is not as boring as you think

27. Introducing Legislation

28. Filibuster

29. Taipei 101

30. Democratic Transition Model Economic freedoms demands for Economic growth political freedom Growth of middle class Exposure to diverse ideas Exposure to middle class and elites of Liberal- democracies Wealth in private hands Time

31. Democratic Transition Model Economic freedomsdemands for Economic growth political freedom Growth of middle class Exposure to diverse ideas Exposure to middle class and elites of Liberal-democracies Wealth in private hands Time economic/political crisis

32. Scenarios 1.Peaceful evolution to Democracy 2.Political Economic Crisis leads to rapid change 1.Another crackdown 2.CPC debate leads to reform 1.Revolution from above 2.CPC becomes two parties 3.CPC debate leads to its collapse 4.CPC debate leads to hardliners imprisoning pragmatists: rollback

33. Priorities 1.Stability 2.Economic Growth 3.Chinese Power