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Rip Currents--Killer Currents Jim Lushine
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Outline of Presentation Rip Current Fatalities Data Forecasting Verification NWS Products Future Work
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Rip Current Fatalities
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Southeast Florida Rip Current Fatalities
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Florida Rip Current Fatalities
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Florida Weather-related Fatalities 1989-2003
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United States Rip Current Fatalities
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Weather-related Formation Factors 1. Local Gradient Wind 2. Swell
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Non-Weather-related Formation Factors Time of Low Tide* Persistence Tidal Currents Deep Water Currents (e.g. Gulf Stream) Seismological Factors *SE Florida Coast
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Data
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Florida Marine Observations
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Four Factors in Forecasting Rip Currents
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Wind Factor
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Gradient Wind vs Rip Current Fatalities along SE Florida Coast
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Gradient Wind vs Non-Rip Current Fatalities along SE Florida Coast
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Sea Breeze Effect
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Convective Wind Initiation
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Swell Factor
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Swell Height* vs Rip Currents <2 Feet---No effect on rip currents 2-7 Feet---Mdt Risk of rip currents >7 Feet---High Risk of rip currents *Swell Period also important
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Tidal Factor
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Faster Rip Current near Low Tide
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Tidal Variation of Fatalities
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Weaker Swimmers Can go Farther Offshore?
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Persistence Factor
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Days Between Initiation of Rip Currents and the First Fatality
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Gradient Winds vs Residual Rip Current Fatalities in SE Florida
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Beach Patrol Rescue Reports
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Daily Rip Current Risk 1=Low 2=Moderate 3=High
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Verification
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NWS Rip Current-Related Products Surf Forecast Hazardous Weather Outlook Marine Weather Statement Zone Forecasts (Headlines)
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Decision to Include in ZFP Weekday vs Weekend/Holiday Improving Weather from yesterday Change in surf conditions from yesterday Low Tide in the afternoon
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Future Work
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Tidal Variation of Fatalities= Hourly Rip Current Risk?
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Beach Geomorphology Renourishment Type of Sand Persistence of Rip Channels
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Upcoming Rip Current Events Technical Workshop (April 6-7, 2004) NWS Media Event (May 24, 2004) FACVB meeting (June 10, 2004) COMET Module (Summer 2004)
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Florida’s Uniform Flag Warning System
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The End
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