1. Office of Coast Survey NOS Coastal and Surge Modeling 2011 NCEP Production Suite Review Jesse C. Feyen Coast Survey Development Laboratory

2. Office of Coast Survey NOAA Surge Model Development Efforts Moving toward total water level modeling –NOS & NWS adding tides to SLOSH –Implementing extratropical surge+tide system ESTOFS –Coupling surge (ADCIRC) and wave (WAVEWATCH III ® ) models in the Nearshore Wave Prediction System Accelerating transition of research to operations –IOOS testbed for evaluating costs and benefits of transitioning community models to operations –Investigating ensemble approaches to use multiple surge models

3. Office of Coast Survey Atlantic Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) Purpose –Provide coastal water levels for coupling to WAVEWATCH III ® (WW3) to drive Nearshore Wave Prediction System –Compute surge with tides, astronomical tides, and subtidal water levels (surge only) for forecaster use Provides improvements in surge predictions –Incorporates the astronomical tides, lacking in ETSS Enables future development –River inflows –Improved resolution of bays, inlets, and barrier islands

4. Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Atlantic Applies ADCIRC model East Coast 2001 tidal database grid (EC2001) 254,565 nodes Coastal resolution ≈ 3 km Tidal forcing at 60 o W – TPXO 6.2

5. Office of Coast Survey Operational Set-up Mirrors WW3 set-up to support coupling Surface forcing from GFS –10 m winds and sea level pressure every 3 hours Run cycle: 4 times per day alongside GFS & WW3 –00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z –6-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr forecast Running experimentally in real-time now; fully operational April 2012

6. Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Output Deliver three types of water level –Combined Water Level (CWL): Surge + tides –Harmonic Tidal Prediction (HTP): Astronomical tides –Subtidal Water Level (SWL): SWL = CWL – HTP Provide both field and point output –6 minute water level at points, hourly water level for fields Output native grid (NetCDF) & 2.5 km NDFD (GRIB2) http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/raid2/estofs/ 2009 Veteran’s Day Nor’Ida

7. Office of Coast Survey Water Level as Fields EC2001 grid (NetCDF)NDFD CONUS grid (GRIB2)

8. Office of Coast Survey Water Level as Fields EC2001 grid (NetCDF)NDFD CONUS grid (GRIB2)

9. Office of Coast Survey Hindcast Skill Assessment Combined Water Level from 2009 Hindcast East CoastGulf of Mexico

10. Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Performance in Hurricane Irene August 20 – August 29, 2011 Made landfall over NC’s Outer Banks on the morning of August 27 Made second landfall near Little Egg Inlet in NJ the morning of August 28 8/27/2011 8:008/28/2011 5:00 NHC Official Track

11. Office of Coast Survey Hurricane Irene Storm Surge Storm Surge –Along the North Carolina coast, surge values ranged from 0.3 m at Wilmington to about 1.0 m above predicted tide levels at Duck –Stations near the entrance to Chesapeake Bay recorded storm surge values between 1.2 and 1.5 m above predicted tide levels –Stations from New York City to Woods Hole, MA, had maximum storm surge between 1 and 1.6 m above tide levels Hydrographs and average abs water level errors –CO-OPS observation and ESTOFS Water Levels for the first daily forecast cycle for 2011082500 through 2011082800

12. Office of Coast Survey CO-OPS Gauge Locations CO-OPS Gauges US Boundaries ESTOFS Boundary

13. Office of Coast Survey GFS Forecast Track

14. Office of Coast Survey Hydrograph

15. Office of Coast Survey Average abs WL Error

16. Office of Coast Survey Hydrograph

17. Office of Coast Survey Average abs WL Error

18. Office of Coast Survey Hydrograph

19. Office of Coast Survey Average abs WL Error

20. Office of Coast Survey U.S. IOOS Coastal Modeling Testbed Coastal Inundation Rick Leuttich, UNC-CH $4M - IOOS Program FFO (Programmatic Language) 5 teams, 64 scientists/analysts SURA is overall lead for execution One year project (May 2010-11) with no-cost extension to Dec 2011 Multi-sector engagement (federal agency, academia, industry) Goals: Gulf & Atlantic Coast Shelf Hypoxia John Harding, USM Gulf of Mexico Estuarine Hypoxia Carl Friedrichs, VIMS Chesapeake Bay Cyber Infrastructure Eoin Howlett, ASA Testbed Advisory Rich Signell, USGS Evaluation Group o Less about models than process o Focus is on stable infrastructure (testing environment, tools, standard obs) and transition to operations o Enable Modeling and Analysis subsystem

21. Office of Coast Survey 1.Develop skill metrics and assess models in three different regions and dynamical regimes 2.Build a common infrastructure for access, analysis and visualization of all ocean model data produced by the National Backbone and the IOOS Regions. 3.Transition models, tools, toolkits and other capabilities to federal operational facilities 4.Build stronger relationships between academia and operational centers through collaboration Original Testbed Goals

22. Office of Coast Survey Development of common Testbed infrastructure Data Archiving Model development/ enhancement HPC Time Skill Analysis Surge, Waves and Inundation Team Results Gulf of Maine / Scituate Harbor - Extratropical Domain

23. Office of Coast Survey Improving Collaboration Improving Data Model Development Supporting Operations Shelf Hypoxia Team Results NOAA CSDL planned coastal physical model implementations (nGOM shelf domain above currently planned for 2nd Qtr FY 12 initial NGOFS coastal ocean forecast operational capability)

24. Office of Coast Survey Transitioning information to federal agencies Model Comparison Conducting sensitivity experiments New, single term hypoxia model Estuarine Hypoxia Results CH3D Cerco & Wang USACE ChesROMS Long & Hood UMCES UMCES-ROMS Li & Li UMCES CBOFS (ROMS) Lanerolle & Xu NOAA EFDC Shen VIMS Five Hydrodynamic Models Configured for the Chesapeake Bay

25. Office of Coast Survey Interactive Web Site: browse model results, view model grid data, side by side comparisons, and MUCH MORE Unstructured Grid Support: Time series extraction completed for FVCOM, SELFE, ELCIRC, ADCIRC. Matlab Toolbox: standardized data transformations, new methods for comparing data (including unit conversion). Coordination with OOI-CI Matlab as a Web Service: Matlab processes - no desktop license required. Skill Assessment Tools: Measure the degree of correlation between model prediction and observations Collaborative Web Site: public/private access to portal, content organization with internal/external tools. Cyber Infrastructure Team Results

26. Office of Coast Survey Looking Ahead Teams are finalizing products for consideration or transferring models, tools and toolkits to federal operational centers Cyber infrastructure team will continue developing tools to advance data repository and search features as well as comparison tools for data and models Management team is building framework for sustainability to include: –Defining and gathering broad agreement for structure and CONOPS of long term Testbed –Ensuring funding support for future Testbed study

27. Office of Coast Survey NOS Operational Forecast System locations – April 2011

28. Office of Coast Survey