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Thank you: Joint Fire Science Program Effects of using Visualization and Animation in Presentations about Forest Succession and Fire Behavior Potential.

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Presentation on theme: "Thank you: Joint Fire Science Program Effects of using Visualization and Animation in Presentations about Forest Succession and Fire Behavior Potential."— Presentation transcript:

1 Thank you: Joint Fire Science Program Effects of using Visualization and Animation in Presentations about Forest Succession and Fire Behavior Potential Jane Kapler Smith, USDA Forest Service Donald E. Zimmerman, Colorado State University Carol Akerelrea, USDI BLM Garrett O’Keefe, Colorado State University

2 Thank you, Partners and Advisors: Paula Fornwalt, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins Merrill Kaufmann, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins Laurie Huckaby, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins Jason Stoker, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins Nick Crookston Nick Crookston, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow Jim zumBrunnen, Colorado State University Thank you, Workshop Participants!

3

4 0002007 11DF 5.8 270002057 11DF 6.5 320012021 11PP 4.6 310012071 11PP 8.7 410102018 11PP 6.1 27 0002008 11DF 8.5 360002058 11DF 4.7 220012022 18DF 12.5 50012072 11PP 5.7 310102019 11PP 7.21.3 25 0002009 11DF 9.2 370002059 11PP 10.2 380012023 11PP 5.2 300012073 11PP 12.7 450102020 11PP 4.0 15 0002010 11PP 5.80.7 330002060 11PP 15.4 730012024 11PP 1.0 60012074 11PP 1.7 80102021 18DF 1.1 7 0002011 11DF 1.4 90002061 11DF 7.7 400012025 11PP 2.5 120012075 11PP 9.4 430102022 11PP 5.0 19 0002012 11DF 6.2 270002062 11DF 6.8 310012026 11PP 8.5 430012076 11PP 1.2 40102023 11PP 2.3 10 0002013 11PP 10.40.4 370002063 18PP 2.5 100012027 11PP 4.5 240012077 11PP 6.7 290102024 18DF 0.9 6 0002014 11DF 4.80.4 240002064 11PP 11.0 500012028 11PP 11.4 440012078 11PP 14.0 430102025 11PP 0.6 6 0002015 11DF 1.10.4 80002065 11DF 0.7 60012029 11PP 2.6 110012079 11PP 4.6 190102026 11PP 10.9 48 0002016 11PP 8.8 330002066 11DF 3.3 220012030 11PP 5.6 310012080 11DF 1.5 100102027 18DF 6.7 28 0002017 11DF 13.90.4 450002067 11PP 12.6 520012031 11PP 7.5 360012081 11PP 8.3 430102028 11PP 5.6 28 0002018 11PP 6.70.9 340002068 11DF 2.2 120012032 11PP 4.3 180012082 11PP 6.1 210102029 18PP 2.4 10 0002019 11DF 6.1 270002069 11DF 4.1 220012033 11DF 15.9 400012083 11PP 8.3 400102030 18DF 2.3 9 0002020 11PP 11.1 520002070 11PP 4.6 100012034 11PP 7.3 460012084 11DF 7.0 310102031 11DF 2.4 13 0002021 11PP 1.3 50002071 11DF 0.3 50012035 11PP 5.2 140012085 11PP 7.2 270102032 18PP 0.9 5 0002022 11DF 9.3 420002072 11PP 9.8 400012036 11PP 2.0 60012086 11PP 10.9 450102033 18DF 2.5 9 0002023 11PP 10.2 460002073 11PP 5.0 310012037 11PP 1.1 50012087 11PP 4.5 160102034 11PP 1.0 9 0002024 11DF 2.9 160002074 11DF 0.6 70012038 11PP 9.6 410012088 11PP 8.2 360102035 18DF 5.3 17 0002025 11PP 3.9 230002075 11PP 10.2 320012039 11DF 4.6 220012089 11DF 1.2 100102036 11DF 6.2 25 0002026 11DF 4.2 230002076 11PP 11.1 420012040 11PP 5.9 280012090 11DF 1.4 110102037 18DF 2.0 10 0002027 11DF 5.4 300002077 11PP 3.4 180012041 11PP 7.1 340012091 11PP 2.7 110102038 11PP 1.9 12 0002028 11DF 3.0 180002078 11PP 5.7 170012042 11PP 15.3 540012092 11PP 5.8 340102039 18DF 3.2 15 0002029 11PP 8.6 360002079 11DF 6.3 280012043 11PP 1.6 60012093 11DF 0.3 70102040 11PP 5.1 26 0002030 11DF 0.9 70002080 11PP 10.2 440012044 11PP 5.3 250012094 11JU 3.9 170102041 18DF 2.2 14 0002031 11DF 3.1 180002081 11DF 5.7 270012045 11PP 13.1 440012095 11DF 0.9 80102042 11PP 7.1 25 0002032 11DF 2.8 160002082 11DF 9.4 340012046 11PP 10.2 460012096 11PP 10.1 360102043 11PP 0.9 7 0002033 11PP 8.3 450002083 11PP 11.5 480012047 11PP 11.7 550012097 11DF 2.0 150102044 11PP 5.2 21

5 0002007 11DF 5.8 270002057 11DF 6.5 320012021 11PP 4.6 310012071 11PP 8.7 410102018 11PP 6.1 27 0002008 11DF 8.5 360002058 11DF 4.7 220012022 18DF 12.5 50012072 11PP 5.7 310102019 11PP 7.21.3 25 0002009 11DF 9.2 370002059 11PP 10.2 380012023 11PP 5.2 300012073 11PP 12.7 450102020 11PP 4.0 15 0002010 11PP 5.80.7 330002060 11PP 15.4 730012024 11PP 1.0 60012074 11PP 1.7 80102021 18DF 1.1 7 0002011 11DF 1.4 90002061 11DF 7.7 400012025 11PP 2.5 120012075 11PP 9.4 430102022 11PP 5.0 19 0002012 11DF 6.2 270002062 11DF 6.8 310012026 11PP 8.5 430012076 11PP 1.2 40102023 11PP 2.3 10 0002013 11PP 10.40.4 370002063 18PP 2.5 100012027 11PP 4.5 240012077 11PP 6.7 290102024 18DF 0.9 6 0002014 11DF 4.80.4 240002064 11PP 11.0 500012028 11PP 11.4 440012078 11PP 14.0 430102025 11PP 0.6 6 0002015 11DF 1.10.4 80002065 11DF 0.7 60012029 11PP 2.6 110012079 11PP 4.6 190102026 11PP 10.9 48 0002016 11PP 8.8 330002066 11DF 3.3 220012030 11PP 5.6 310012080 11DF 1.5 100102027 18DF 6.7 28 0002017 11DF 13.90.4 450002067 11PP 12.6 520012031 11PP 7.5 360012081 11PP 8.3 430102028 11PP 5.6 28 0002018 11PP 6.70.9 340002068 11DF 2.2 120012032 11PP 4.3 180012082 11PP 6.1 210102029 18PP 2.4 10 0002019 11DF 6.1 270002069 11DF 4.1 220012033 11DF 15.9 400012083 11PP 8.3 400102030 18DF 2.3 9 0002020 11PP 11.1 520002070 11PP 4.6 100012034 11PP 7.3 460012084 11DF 7.0 310102031 11DF 2.4 13 0002021 11PP 1.3 50002071 11DF 0.3 50012035 11PP 5.2 140012085 11PP 7.2 270102032 18PP 0.9 5 0002022 11DF 9.3 420002072 11PP 9.8 400012036 11PP 2.0 60012086 11PP 10.9 450102033 18DF 2.5 9 0002023 11PP 10.2 460002073 11PP 5.0 310012037 11PP 1.1 50012087 11PP 4.5 160102034 11PP 1.0 9 0002024 11DF 2.9 160002074 11DF 0.6 70012038 11PP 9.6 410012088 11PP 8.2 360102035 18DF 5.3 17 0002025 11PP 3.9 230002075 11PP 10.2 320012039 11DF 4.6 220012089 11DF 1.2 100102036 11DF 6.2 25 0002026 11DF 4.2 230002076 11PP 11.1 420012040 11PP 5.9 280012090 11DF 1.4 110102037 18DF 2.0 10 0002027 11DF 5.4 300002077 11PP 3.4 180012041 11PP 7.1 340012091 11PP 2.7 110102038 11PP 1.9 12 0002028 11DF 3.0 180002078 11PP 5.7 170012042 11PP 15.3 540012092 11PP 5.8 340102039 18DF 3.2 15 0002029 11PP 8.6 360002079 11DF 6.3 280012043 11PP 1.6 60012093 11DF 0.3 70102040 11PP 5.1 26 0002030 11DF 0.9 70002080 11PP 10.2 440012044 11PP 5.3 250012094 11JU 3.9 170102041 18DF 2.2 14 0002031 11DF 3.1 180002081 11DF 5.7 270012045 11PP 13.1 440012095 11DF 0.9 80102042 11PP 7.1 25 0002032 11DF 2.8 160002082 11DF 9.4 340012046 11PP 10.2 460012096 11PP 10.1 360102043 11PP 0.9 7 0002033 11PP 8.3 450002083 11PP 11.5 480012047 11PP 11.7 550012097 11DF 2.0 150102044 11PP 5.2 21 19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000

6 We asked: 1. Can a presentation about forest modeling increase knowledge about forest processes in members of the public? 2. Do computer visualizations and animations enhance effectiveness of such a presentation? 3. Do formal presentations influence public perceptions of the Forest Service and forest management? 4. Do visualization and animation affect these perceptions?

7 Model: FVS-FFE Graphics: SVS Groups:Rural mountain residents (Poudre Canyon) Town residents (Fort Collins) Students (Colorado State)

8 Agenda: Refreshments Introduction– purpose, paperwork, honorarium Pre questionnaire– knowledge Presentation Post questionnaire– knowledge plus presentation, visual aids, demographics plus Forest Service credibility, model credibility Programs: 4 “visualized” presentations 3 “non-visualized” presentations 142 participants Topics: Succession Fire behavior Forest management Modeling

9 Not Visualized or Animated 2000~1896 Concept: Succession 1900191019201930194019501960197019801990 2000 1900 Visualized & Animated

10 1900– 170 trees 2000– 409 trees Concept: Modeling future condition Not Visualized or Animated Visualized & Animated ~1903 ~1999 ~2050 Model predicts: 25% more trees 30% greater cover 20002010 2020 20302040 2050– 547 trees

11 Concept: Modeling future condition Not Visualized or Animated Visualized & Animated ~1903 ~1999 ~2050 Model predicts: 25% more trees 30% greater cover 1900 2000 2010202020302040 2050

12 1. Can a presentation about forest modeling increase knowledge about forest processes in members of the public? 87%Succession 95%Models 78%Management 87%Fire behavior Pre to Post Questionnaire “Don’t know” signif. Knowledge signif. * * *

13 Rural MtnTownStudent Visualized, Animated Not Vis. or Anim. 2. Do computer visualizations and animations enhance effectiveness of such presentations? Succ.Fire be.Mgt.Models No Yes * * * Knowledge signif. vs. Possible explanations: Age Education/biology

14 2. Do computer visualizations and animations enhance effectiveness of such presentations? ….if “effectiveness” = “appeal”… * *

15 3. Do formal presentations influence public perceptions of the Forest Service and forest management? Not true Usu. true 4. Do visualization and animation affect these perceptions? Substantial variation, no clear pattern Probably Yes:

16 Conclusions 1. Presentations can enhance understanding of forest processes and models. 2. Visualization & animation may increase understanding for some audiences (older or less educated?)… and people like it! 3. Presentations may increase agency credibility 4. Visualization & animation unlikely to increase credibility 5. Presentation quality matters

17 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How do our choices influence forests… and fires?

18 The players: 0.5 inch ponderosa pine…

19

20 Models help us understand and predict

21 1900 1910192019301940195019601970198019902000 Modeled Succession

22 ~1896 Data ~1896 Data ~1896 Data ~1896 Data ~1896 Data ~1896 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Data 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2000 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 No data 2050 No data 2050 No data 2050 No data 2050 No data 2050 No data 2050

23 Denser (2050) Denser (2050) Denser (2050) 0 1020304050 Wind, mph 600 1020304050 Wind, mph 60 Open (1900) Open (1900) Open (1900) Dense (2000) Dense (2000) Dense (2000) Surface & Passive CrowningActive Crowning Surface & Passive CrowningActive Crowning Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire

24 Presentations and Visualization and Animation in Presentations Visualization and Animation in Presentations Thank you! Effects of using Visualization and Animation in Presentations Information at Firelab.org

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