1. U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Workshop on the San Juan Basin Hydrology Model February 17, 2005

2. Purpose of Workshop To provide an opportunity for interested parties to gain a better understanding of how the SJBHM works. Discuss Model Capabilities and Limitations Discuss Interpretation of Model Results

3. AGENDA I.Basis of Hydrology Modeling II.Overview of the Generation II Model. III.Rationale for the Transition from Gen II to Gen III - Including capabilities and limitations of Gen II. IV.Overview of the Gen III Model - Including capabilities and limitations of Gen III. V.Interpreting the Results - Discussion on the Precision and Accuracy of the Model(s). VI.Open Discussion, Q&A, etc.

4. What Is A Hydrology Model? A computer representation of the physical processes associated with consuming and moving water moving through a river basin. Simulation model Natural Flow Based –Natural flow estimation –Period of Record (1929-1993 for the present SJBHM). Calibration Process –Apply historical demands to natural flows –Calibrate to replicate gage flows –Calibrate on one period of record –Validate on another period of record

5. What Is A Hydrologic Model? (continued) Assumptions in Simulation –Use historical hydrology to represent future conditions –Substitute future expected demands for historic demands –Historical and future statistics similar Baseline configuration –Basin conditions expected to occur in the future. –Foundation to which conditions of a future project are added to determine incremental impact. SJRIP Baseline –Initially established with first ALP consultation 1991 –Updated with new input for flow recommendations –Updated by adding new projects as approved or new information received.

6. Purpose of SJBHM Provide a tool to analyze ways to manage flows in the San Juan River Basin for the benefit of Endangered Fish while allowing water development to proceed. Provide technical input to the development and periodic evaluation and analysis of flow recommendations Assess the impact of project development on basin depletions and recommended flows for endangered fish

7. SJBHM Overview First generation model –Monthly timestep (1929-1993) –Implicit ALP –Reclamation natural flows –Post processing required to assess impacts Second generation model (May 2000) –Operating ALP with interaction with Navajo Reservoir –Other conditions same as first generation Third generation model –Daily timestep in decision model –StateMod natural flows

9. Overview of 2 nd Generation Model Computer Modeling Tools Basic Model Data Input Model Adjustments and Operating Rules Model Verification and Calibration Simulation Scenarios and Model Runs

10. Computer Modeling Tools RiverWare – Generic hydrologic modeling tool that allows the user to build basin specific models. MS Excel and Basic Programs are used to post-process monthly model output to find daily flows necessary to compute flow statistics

11. Riverware Workspace

12. Overview of 2 nd Generation Model Computer Modeling Tools Basic Model Data Input Model Adjustments and Operating Rules Model Verification and Calibration Simulation Scenarios and Model Runs

13. Basic Model Data Input Reclamation estimated Natural flows (1970 -1993) Extended Natural Flows 1929 to 1969 using a combination of spatial and temporal disaggregation methods. Historical or Baseline Non-Agricultural Depletions. Agricultural demands were calculated from acreage, crop water demand and efficiencies Reservoir Evaporation is calculated using Reclamation’s Upper Colorado Region methods. Reach gains and losses are computed as water balance closure terms Data came from Colorado, New Mexico, BIA, USGS, Reclamation & other published sources

14. Overview of 2 nd Generation Model Computer Modeling Tools Basic Model Data Input Model Adjustments and Operating Rules Model Verification and Calibration Simulation Scenarios and Model Runs

15. Model Adjustments Off-stream depletion adjustment to natural gains and losses. Return Flow Lag Adjustment Corrections Due to Missed Colorado Depletions in Natural Flow Calculations CRSS Data correction in the Natural Flow extension

16. Operating Rules San Juan - Chama Project Pine River Project (Vallecito Reservoir) Navajo Reservoir (historical and future rules) Florida Project (Lemon Reservoir) La Plata River Compact Mancos Project (Jackson Gulch Reservoir) Animas-La Plata Project (Lake Nighthorse) Simplified Criteria

17. Overview of 2 nd Generation Model Computer Modeling Tools Basic Model Data Input Model Adjustments and Operating Rules Model Verification and Calibration Simulation Scenarios and Model Runs

18. Model Verification and Calibration Verification Model (1970-93) –Actual depletions and reservoir releases –Check for correct model configuration –No rules are involved Calibration Model (1970-93) –Non-shorted depletions and computed diversions –Adds rules that operate reservoirs, and compute depletions and shortages.

19. Navajo Reservoir Inflow

20. Overview of 2 nd Generation Model Computer Modeling Tools Basic Model Data Input Model Adjustments and Operating Rules Model Verification and Calibration Simulation Scenarios and Model Runs

21. Depletion Base Irrigated acres and depletions Ground water storage and return flow lagging Non Irrigation depletions Transmountain diversions Animas-La Plata Project

22. RIP Flow Recommendation Simulation Navajo release decision tree –Navajo peak release hydrographs –Conditional selection of release hydrograph –Average base release implied in hydrograph volumes –Navajo release center date Minimum allowable release Maintain target base flow Avoid Reservoir Spills Avoid Induced Shortage

24. Simulation Scenario for Project Analysis 1.Request is made for a model run with a new or changed project depletion which is provided by the project proponent through the approved SJRIP process. 2.Modeler examines the project data to see if it is compatible with the model and there is sufficient provided data. 3.If it is compatible then the SJBHM is configured. 4.Model is Run.

25. Simulation Scenario (cont.) 5.Test against minimum reservoir level, minimum release, minimum base flow. 6.Post-process data to generate flow statistics if Step 5 passes 7.Daily flows at Four Corners are used to evaluate the flow statistics. 8.If the flow criteria are met then the process ends and the results are reported.

26. If criteria are not met - In consultation with project proponent: Iterate by adjusting release parameters until statistics are met. –Minimum available storage, target space, weighted outflow etc. –Or manipulate project operation. Adjustments to the project demand may be necessary. If flow criteria are still not met, the results are provided to the project proponent for consultation with FWS.

27. Qualifications and Objections State of New Mexico –Use of the Modified Blaney-Criddle Methodology –Use of the Northwest Unit Assessment Study –Not to be used for anything but flow recommendation analysis Other interested Parties –Documentation of the CRSS Data

28. Rationale for the Transition from Gen II to Gen III The Gen II model cannot make a release decision based on past conditions (limitation of post-processing) Data set not easily extended beyond 1993 Concerns with natural flows No return flow lagging

29. Operates on a daily timestep Allows inclusion of past statistics in release decisions Can make release adjustments on the fly Hydrologic period more easily extendable More closely simulates actual operation Compatible with and linked to Colorado flow model Based on improved natural flows Capable of lagging return flows Better simulation of base flows Mix of RiverWare and StateMod Hydrologic Models SJBHM – 3 rd Generation Overview

30. SJBHM Gen III Modeling Steps Compute Naturalized Flows Using StateMod Compute Colorado Baseline Water Supply Using StateMod Operate SJC By All Operating Criteria and Compute Forecasting Data Using RiverWare Migration Model Disaggregate Monthly Data to Daily Data Using RiverWare Models Operate RiverWare Daily Decision Model

31. Gen III Natural Flow Computations StateMod Advantages –Automatic management of missing data –Use of Mixed Stations Model to extend natural flows –Ability to spatially distribute flows to ungaged areas

32. Migration Model (full Basin)

33. Daily Decision Model

34. Gen III – General Operations StateMod Baseline Operation –Water rights solver –Modified Direct Solution Algorithm –Standard operations –Special operations – La Plata Compact –Establishes water supply for most Colorado water users San Juan Chama Animas La Plata Project –Normal operations –Mitigation Operations Navajo Normal Operations –NIIP –Downstream Demands –Fill and Not Spill –Flood Control

35. SJBHM – RIP Operations Baseflows – 7 Day running average of 500 cfs at combination of gages –Three Gage –Two Gage Maximum –Two Gage Minimum Peak Releases –Event types targeted toward primary criteria –Decision tree used to make and track decisions –Can use previous statistics to make release decision –Can adjust release based on in-year condition

37. SJBHM RIP Operations Third Generation Enhancements –Ability to look back at actual events rather than releases –Prioritization of target events –More frequent decision dates –Inclusion of Animas forecast in decision process –Alternative adjustments (in lieu of nose adjustments) –Release curtailments or extensions based upon realized conditions

38. Interpreting the Results Discussion on the Precision and Accuracy of the Model(s)

39. Model Precision: The ability of a measurement to be consistently reproduced Simulation models are typically very precise Given a set of inputs, the results are predictable and every drop of water is accounted for. Output precision is to the nearest acre-foot If a criteria is missed by 1 acre foot once in 65 years, it is deemed missed. The precision sometimes leads to a false sense of the model accuracy.

40. Model Accuracy: The ability of a measurement to match the actual value of the quantity being measured. Model accuracy limited by the accuracy of: –Input data –Model assumptions –Ability to simulate complex interactions For Example: –Gage accuracy for the best gages is 95% ( ±5%) –Historical gage record sometimes show impossible water balance –Assumptions such as return flow lag are approximations –Future hydrology may not maintain statistics of historical hydrology

41. Implications to Model implementation Precision Issues –All water projects should be accounted for as precisely as possible in the model, regardless of size Small Projects should be included in minor depletions accounting, particularly when depletion patterns are not well defined. Projects with adequate definition and sufficient magnitude should be explicitly modeled. –It may be advisable to output rounded values in the model to avoid the implication of unrealistic accuracy. (e.g. 500 cfs or 510 cfs rather than 504 cfs or 507 cfs)

42. Implications to Model Implementation Accuracy Issues: Critical to develop criteria and evaluate projects with the same model, configuration and time series Important to understand the accuracy of the basis for the criteria in interpretation of the assessment of meeting the criteria. Most error in the model is random, with equal probability of over and under prediction. Computation of an error band around the model output is problematic, but cannot be better than about ± 5%.