1. Agricultural impacts of climate in Mexico and Argentina. Cecilia Conde, Roberto Seiler, Marta Vinocur. LA - 29

2. MEXICO Central Region. Veracruz

3. Climatic Events. Veracruz Eakin,H.

4. Coffee T,Pcp requirements SpringSummerWinter 17 o C < T < 24 o C Pcp: 1800 – 2000 mm Altitude: 900 – 1300 msnm Optimum conditions Pcp: need of relative drought Temperature: high T Temperature: frosts Effect: loss of flowers. Maturity of berries Losses in production

5. Risk space. Veracruz. MAM

6. Risk space. Veracruz. JJA

7. Risk Space” Veracruz, Mex. DEF

8. Climate & Coffee Production Changes.Downscaling model Season CCCGFDL TPcpT Winter+-++ Spring+-+- Summer+-++ Autumn++++ Palma, 2004 Huatusco Aptitude SimilarDecreases

9. Coffee Production = - k 1 + k 2 (T summer ) – k 3 (T summer ) 2 + k 4 (Pcp Spring ) + k 5 T winter + k 6 (T Winter ) 2 + k 7 (Minimum Wage summer ) Equation for Coffee Production Mexico. 1969 – 1998. Est. Real Gay, Estrada, Conde, Eakin, Villers

10. Cafe2. Effects of summer temperature on coffee production. Gay, Estrada, Conde, Eakin, Villers

11. Climate & Coffee Production Changes. Equation. 2020

12. Córdoba, Argentina

13. Argentina Study area Córdoba Province

14. FARMERS’ Perceptions Droughts Hailstorms Floods Climatic Risk in Southern Córdoba

16. Risk space. Laboulaye, Cba. DEF

17. Risk space. Laboulaye, Cba. SON

18. Risk space. Río Cuarto, Cba. DEF

19. Risk space. Pilar, Cba. DEF

20. Pcp Laboulaye, 1961 -2003

21. Changes in Drought Risk. Córdoba 1961 -1990 2050 Scenario. ECHAM, A2.

22. Conclusions Risk spaces are a useful tool to identify:Risk spaces are a useful tool to identify: –Climate variability and extreme weather events, which strongly affect agricultural production –Climate change conditions that might open windows of opportunities in some regions, –Climate change conditions that might severily affect agricultural production In any case, it is still an open question how changes in future varibility will affect agricultural production.In any case, it is still an open question how changes in future varibility will affect agricultural production.