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Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Assessment of externalities from major accidents in non-nuclear fuel.

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Presentation on theme: "Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Assessment of externalities from major accidents in non-nuclear fuel."— Presentation transcript:

1 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Assessment of externalities from major accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains (Work Package 5) S. Hirschberg & P. Burgherr Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland EESD Energy Project NewExt: first progress meeting Bath (UK), 13 and 14 September 2001

2 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Content Summary of work progress -Current status of PSI database ENSAD -Extension needs Issues -Importance of smaller accidents -Probabilistic analysis for hydropower -Economic valuation Tasks for next 6 months (+)

3 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Risk assessment – scope and goals Assessment of major accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains with focus on the severe ones. The basis for this work is PSI’s database ENSAD. In addition, an extension of the database including identification and acquisition of new sources will be performed. Specific survey of historical data considering smaller accidents. Development of a concept for experience- and prediction-based dam risk assessment.

4 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Severe Accident Definition (as used in ENSAD) One or several of the following consequences: At least 5 fatalities At least 10 injured At least 200 evacuees Extensive ban on consumption of food Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10000 tonnes Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km 2 Economic loss of at least 5 million USD

5 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Some methodological issues Definition of a severe accident that could be consistently applied to various energy chains. Distinction between the estimates based on actual experience and on predictions utilizing logical system models. Treatment of source data and the rational for screening. Accounting for contributions from all stages of fuel cycles. Role of risk perception/risk aversion. Presentation of results.

6 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Major accident Databases Used by ENSAD

7 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Major commercial and non-commercial accident databases Journals, periodicals and books on specific energy systems Technical reports issued by manufacturing and insurance companies, or by research institutes National and international newspapers Other publications, e.g. Conference Proceedings, Encyclopaedias, Annual Reports etc. Plant operators Consular authorities International organisations (UN, OECD, European Community, etc.) Organisations providing emergency services (Red Cross, UN, etc.) Governmental organisations having an internal reporting system, such as police, fire brigades, labour and environmental inspectorates The most important information sources for PSI's Energy-related Severe Accidents Database (ENSAD)

8 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Implementation Acquisition of relevant databases. Implementation of the acquired databases on a personal computer. Merging of the contents of the various databases within Microsoft’s Access. Elimination of overlapping events and harmonisation of non-consistent information. Identification of energy-related accidents and among them of accidents considered as severe. Allocation of energy-related accidents to specific fuel cycles and subsequently to specific stages within each fuel cycle. Searches utilising supplementary sources. Application of PSA. Implementation of the additional evidence into the database. Evaluation.

9 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) PSI's Energy-related Severe Accidents Database (ENSAD) and its Merits 13914 accidents, of which 10064 (72.3%) man-made 3850 (27.7%) as natural 4290 energy-related accidents, corresponding to: 30.8% of all accidents 42.6% of man-made accidents Among the energy-related accidents 1943 (45.3%) are severe, of which 846 have 5 or more fatalities In the period 1975 ‑ 1996 typically about 30 energy-related accidents with at least five fatalities occurred each year; among them 1 ‑ 5 had consequences exceeding 100 fatalities. Nearly 93% of the energy-related accidents occurred in the time period 1945 ‑ 1996 62% of all energy-related severe accidents with at least 5 fatalities occurred in the western world Much improved coverage and balance between reporting levels for individual countries

10 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Energy-related Severe Accidents (1945-1996) Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

11 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) A B C D E F G H Man-made Non-energy-related Man-made Energy-related Man-made Natural All Accidents 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Number of Accidents Damage Category Accident Type ENSAD Number of Accidents by Type and Damage Category A: No threshold B : C or D or E or F or G or H C :at least 5 fatalities, D: at least 10 injuries, E : at least 200 evacuees F: at least 10,000 t of pollutives releases of hydrocarbons and chemicals G: at least 25 km2 area of enforced clean up of land+water H: at least 5 Million US$ of economic loss Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

12 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Number of fatalities in severe accidents by oil chain step (1969-1996) Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

13 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998 Severe Accidents Indicators for OECD and Non-OECD Countries

14 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Energy-related Severe Accidents (1969-1996) Economic Losses Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

15 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

16 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Extension needs OSH-ROM (Health & Safety Publishing)2000 CHF per year ICOLD world register of dams Free year 2000 update Bibliography of the history of dam failures369 EUR PC Facts (1996-2000)n.a. WOAD (Worldwide Offshore Accident Database)305 USD Lloyd‘s casualty archive(online database since Jan 1991)1135 USD Oil spills: CONCAWE (oil companies' European organisation for environment, health and safety)Free ITOPF (Int. Tanker Owners Pollution Federation)Free International oil spill statistics (Cutter Information Corp.)205 USD IEA world energy statistics update 20001200 USD (data normalization)

17 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Severe vs smaller accidents A severe accident should have one or several of the following consequences: -At least 5 fatalities -At least 10 injured -At least 200 evacuees -Extensive ban on consumption of food -Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10000 tonnes -Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km 2 -Economic loss of at least 5 million USD  A smaller accident does not match any of the above criteria

18 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Smaller vs severe accidents in ENSAD (1969-1996)

19 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Smaller vs severe accidents in ENSAD (1969-1996) Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

20 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Smaller accidents 1996-2000 Initial survey of OSH-ROM (MHIDAS, CISDOC, HSELINE etc) yielded a total of 28 fatalities and 48 fatalities.

21 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Smaller accidents in China‘s coal chain 1994-1999 Source: CETP-Project

22 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Smaller accidents in coal mining in the USA (1995-2000) Analysis based on MSHA statistics

23 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Treatment of smaller accidents Use of extended ENSAD database as a starting point Use of additional sources: -Occupational Health & Safety statistics -NEWCRONOS database by EUROSTAT -International Labour Organization statistics -etc

24 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Economic valuation To what extent are non-nuclear accidents already internalized? -Differences between specific energy chains -Occupational vs public accidents -Small vs large accidents Basis for monetisation -Value of statistical life -Damages other than loss of life

25 Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Tasks for next 6 months (+) 1.Implementation of database extension up to year 2000 2.First evaluations based on extended database 3.Data acquisition for smaller accidents 4.Initialization of hydropower analysis 5.Partner contributions to monetisation

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