1. Research Findings Aviation Safety Inspector Study February/March 2014 1

2. Methodology The survey was conducted online with 284 aviation inspectors -- employees of Transport Canada -- who enforce Canada’s air safety regulations. 80% of respondents (226) are licenced pilot inspectors represented by the Canadian Federal Pilots Association (CFPA). The balance (58) are Technical Inspectors represented by the Union of Canadian Transport Employees (UCTE). Respondents were invited to participate in the study by email. The response rate among licenced pilots was 60% and 23% for Technical Inspectors. The survey was conducted in English and French from February 13 to March 14, 2014 using an internet survey programmed and collected by Abacus Data. Based on the response rate and the sample composition, the results of the survey should be considered representative of the opinions of aviation inspectors employed by Transport Canada. 2

3. Key Findings 3

4. Concern deepens about Transport Canada’s Safety Management Systems (SMS) among Canada’s aviation safety inspectorate Soon after the introduction of aviation SMS in Canada, an online study in 2007 found Transport Canada’s licenced pilot inspectors of two minds. They expressed broad hope that SMS could theoretically improve aviation safety but were equally concerned that Transport Canada’s version of SMS would actually do more harm than good. Today, 85% of respondents believe air travellers have been exposed to higher risk as a result of Transport Canada’s aviation SMS, up significantly from 2007 when 67% forecast this outcome. Nine-in-ten aviation inspectors report that Transport Canada’s SMS prevents the correction of safety problems in a timely fashion, up from 80% who worried this would be the case in the early days of SMS. Today, 84% of aviation inspectors expect a major aviation accident or incident in the near future after working in an SMS environment for the past seven years, up from 74% who held this view in 2007. Two-thirds (67%) believe Transport Canada’s SMS will actually increase the chances of a major aviation accident or incident, up slightly from 2007 when 61% held this view. Key Findings 4

5. Detailed Findings 5

6. Could Safety Management Systems (SMS) Improve Aviation Safety in Canada? Q. Do you believe a properly implemented safety management systems (SMS) could improve aviation safety in Canada? The majority of respondents (81% CFPA, 66% UCTE) believe SMS could improve aviation safety in Canada. This is down from 92% in 2007. 6

7. Perceived Risk Associated with Transport Canada’s Planned SMS Q: In your opinion, has the travelling public been exposed to more or less risk as a result of Transport Canada’s reliance on SMS? Most (85%) aviation inspectors think that SMS has exposed the public to a higher level of risk in Canada’s aviation system. Up significantly from 2007 when 67% of licenced pilot inspectors believed that the public would be exposed to more risk as a result of TC’s reliance on SMS. Few (4% CFPA, 3% UCTE) think SMS will result in a lower level of risk while 11% of CFPA and 12% of UCTE members do not think there will be a difference in risk levels. 7

8. Reasons for Higher Risk Q.Why do you say that? (PLEASE SELECT TOP 2 REASONS ONLY) 85% Say Planned SMS has Resulted in Higher Level Risk In Canada’s Aviation System  When asked why they believed SMS has resulted in higher risk levels, 69% cited regulatory resources and the number of inspectors. Another 37% selected industry’s emphasis on costs while 22% cited the level of integrity of the industry.  In 2007, CFPA members cited the same top two issues: regulatory resources and industry emphasis on costs. 8

9. Is SMS a barrier to addressing safety problems? Q: Given the new role of an inspector under Transport Canada’s SMS to be more an overseer of certificate holder SMS systems, which of the following statements is closest to your own view as an inspector?  Nearly nine in ten (89% CFPA, 88% UCTE) survey respondents believe that SMS prevents them from addressing and correcting safety problems in a timely fashion, compared to 11% of CFPA and 12% of UCTE members who think SMS will allow them to better address and correct the safety problems they encounter. 9

10. Is SMS a barrier to addressing safety problems? From perception to evaluation.  Today, nine-in-ten aviation inspectors report that Transport Canada’s SMS prevents the correction of safety problems in a timely fashion, up from 80% who worried this would be the case in the early days of SMS. 20072014 10

11. Usefulness of Aviation SMS The majority of respondents (59% CFPA/67% UCTE) see aviation SMS as not useful for pursuing and correcting safety problems. Q: In your experience, on a scale from not useful at all to very useful, is aviation SMS useful to you for pursuing and correcting safety problems in aviation? 11

12. If the travelling public know… Nearly all survey respondents (86% CFPA/91% UCTE) believe confidence in the safety of Canada’s aviation system would decrease if the public had their knowledge of Transport Canada’s SMS oversight system. Q: If the travelling public had your knowledge of Transport Canada’s established SMS oversight system, do you think their level of confidence in the safety of Canada’s aviation system would: 12

13. Public Confidence in Aviation Safety – 2007 vs. 2014 (CFPA Only)  Compared to 2007, more licenced pilot inspectors expect a decrease in confidence in aviation safety with greater knowledge of SMS among the travelling public. Q2007: If the travelling public had your knowledge of Transport Canada’s planned SMS, do you think their level of confidence in the safety of Canada’s aviation system would: Q2014: If the travelling public had your knowledge of Transport Canada’s established SMS oversight system, do you think their level of confidence in the safety of Canada’s aviation system would: 13

14. Confidence in Airline & Airport Self-Regulation  The vast majority of respondents have no or little confidence in the ability of air operators and airports to regulate themselves through SMS when it comes to safety. Only 10% of CFPA members and 8% of UCTE members say they are either very or somewhat confident. Q: How confident are you personally about air operators, airports, etc. regulating themselves through SMS when it comes to safety? 14

15. Perceived Motivation for Transport Canada to Introduce SMS  Three-fifths (80%) of respondents think Transport Canada’s motivation to introduce SMS is to respond to dwindling resources, while nearly two-thirds (65%) think it is to transfer legal liability for aviation accidents from Transport Canada to the industry.  Fifteen percent (15%) think Transport Canada is motivated to introduce SMS to achieve higher levels of safety within Canadian aviation operations. Q9.In your view, what is Transport Canada’s motivation to introduce SMS? (PLEASE CHECK AS MANY AS APPLICABLE) 15

16. Likelihood of a Major Aviation Accident or Incident in Canada Based on their knowledge of and experience with the state of aviation safety in Canada, the vast majority of inspectors believe a major aviation accident or incident in the near future is very (38%) or somewhat (46%) likely. Q: Given your knowledge and experience with the state of Canadian aviation system safety, in your opinion how likely is a major aviation accident or incident in Canada in the near future? 16

17. Likelihood of a Major Aviation Accident or Incident in Canada (CFPA Only, 2007 vs. 2014)  Among licenced pilot inspectors, the expectation of a major accident or incident in the near future has increased after working in an SMS environment for the past seven years. Q: Given your knowledge and experience with the state of Canadian aviation system safety, in your opinion how likely is a major aviation accident or incident in Canada in the near future? 17

18. Result of SMS on Accidents or Incidents  Two-thirds (66%) of respondents believe the implementation of SMS increases the chance of a major aviation accident or incident while 7% think that SMS reduces the chance of a major accident or incident. Q: In your opinion, will Transport Canada’s implementation of SMS… 18

19. Result of SMS on Accidents or Incidents (CFPA Only)  Today, more licenced pilot inspectors believe the implementation of SMS will increase the chance of a major aviation accident or incident (67% today vs. 61% in 2007). At the same time those who believe the implementation of SMS will have no impact on the likelihood of a major accident or incident has declined by one third. Q: In your opinion, will Transport Canada’s implementation of SMS… 19

20. What is Most Likely to Improve Aviation Safety? No one sees SMS alone as the regulatory system most likely to deliver improvements to aviation safety. Inspectors see SMS in combination with direct operational oversight as the most likely way to improve aviation safety. Q: Which of the following do you believe is most likely to improve aviation safety? 20

21.  71% of aviation inspectors reported spending at least some work time conducting SMS audits/program validations and direct regulatory compliance oversight of aviation operations.  Most aviation inspectors report that they spend most of their time on oversight activities they view as inadequate and only a minority of their time on direct operational oversight.  For example, more than half of inspectors said they spent 76% or more of their time on SMS audits. Q: Please quantify the split in your work time spent on SMS audits/program validations and related activities versus time spent on the direct regulatory compliance oversight of aviation operations. 21 Time Spent: SMS Audits vs. Direct Regulatory Compliance

22. Will mandatory SMS for small airlines save lives and reduce accidents? Nearly, two-thirds (63%) of respondents believe mandatory SMS for small airline companies would increase the rate of accidents and fatalities. Q: If SMS becomes mandatory for 703 and 704 operators, do you expect this would: 22

23. Will mandatory SMS affect inspector oversight of small airlines? A large majority of respondents (83%) expect direct oversight by Transport Canada inspectors would be reduced if SMS is imposed on small airlines. Q: If SMS becomes mandatory for 703 and 704 operators, do you expect this would: 23

24. Years Worked in Aviation Q.How many years have you worked in aviation? (PLEASE ENTER THE NUMBER OF YEARS)  The average number of years that respondents have worked in aviation is 29.2 years, 9% of CFPA and 24% of UCTE respondents have worked in aviation for 15 years or less. Mean: 29.2 years Median: 30 years 24

25. Years Worked as Aviation Inspector with Transport Canada Q.How many years have you been an aviation inspector with Transport Canada? (PLEASE ENTER THE NUMBER OF YEARS)  The average number of years that respondents have worked with Transport Canada as aviation inspectors is 12.9 years. 34% of UCTE respondents and 30% of CFPA respondents have worked as aviation inspectors for more than 15 years. Mean: 12.9 years Median: 13 years 25

26. David Coletto, PhD Chief Executive Officer david@abacusdata.ca 100 Sparks St., Suite 1090 Ottawa, ON K1P 5B7 613.232.2806 www.abacusdata.ca 26