1. Will Future Water Professionals Sink under Received Wisdom, or Swim to a New Paradigm? Douglas J Merrey World Water Day 2008: The Water Professional of Tomorrow, 12 th NETHCID Symposium, Wageningen University

2. Question of the Day for Water Professionals Will we use our skills and opportunities simply to re-confirm and further consolidate, through tinkering, old paradigms of thinking and acting? Or will we throw off the shackles on our minds, ask new questions, and thereby create new paradigms for a better world? (And will we train our future students to overthrow our own sacred paradigms?)

3. Outline 1.Investing in “Water Security” as a necessary condition for rapid economic development 2.Assess three assumptions underlying the Water Security Argument A.Its necessity: the “minimum platform” B.Large-scale water infrastructure is necessary to achieve water security  Alternatives ignored: the case of agricultural water management in sub-Saharan Africa C.Faith in “stakeholder consultation” to ensure equity and environmental sustainability 3.A political economic perspective on water investments 4.Conclusions: Priorities for the Water Professionals of tomorrow—research and action Omamo (2003), Policy Research on African Agriculture: Trends, Gaps, and Challenges, International Service for National Agricultural Research (ISNAR) Research Report No 21

4. 1. The Water Security Case  “Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and development,” David Grey and Claudia Sadoff, Water Policy 2007 Excellent article making the case for renewed investments on water infrastructure, especially in Africa Draw on their argument, as it represents an increasingly dominant view in development banks Though I am questioning some of their assumptions, I respect their having moved the Bank from a low-risk no-action stance Freely using Dr Grey’s slides with thanks  Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) focus—my current interest; greatest infrastructure gap; and likely big investments in future

5. African Infrastructure Gap  Until recently investments in infrastructure declining  Huge gap by all possible measures Half population no sanitation Lower road density than India in 1950 Schools, hospitals, communications Only a few countries e.g., South Africa, can invest enough to reduce gap quickly  Some slides from Dr. Grey

6. Infrastructure gap: Access to electricity 184 85 21 126 55 38 29 204 114 581 900 430 2108 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Cameroon Nigeria Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Uganda Burkina Faso Ghana Senegal Algeria Egypt Morocco World Average Elec consumption (kWh/yr)/Capita 500 kWh/capita/year minimum consumption for reasonable quality of life Energy use per person in Africa United States consumption – 12000kWh/capita/yr

7. The infrastructure gap: Hydropower

8. 43 746 1,287 1,406 2,486 3,255 4,729 6,150 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Ethiopia South Africa Thailand Laos China Brazil Australia North America Water storage per person (m3)

9. CountryAdditional Storage needed per person (m 3 ) Storage investments required per person (US$) Storage Investments Required (US$ Billion) Period needed at 5% current GDP investment per year (no pop. inc.) (Years) Lesotho7519391.7 44 Namibia5426781.3 8 Nigeria40250367.3 32 Ethiopia55569446.2 144 Kenya30738412.124 Tanzania61076327.4 60 Uganda51163917.9 58 Burkina Faso 1521902.5 22 Senegal6838549.9 40 Algeria2392999.8 4 Morocco1281605.1 4 ‘Water security’: Investment gap

10. Devastating Impacts of Variable and Uncertain Rainfall Worsened by Lack of Storage and Inadequate institutional and infrastructural Capacity to Manage Impacts of Floods and Droughts

11. Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982 Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

12. 2000 & 2001 winters: extreme flooding in Mozambique

13. Mozambique’s 2000 floods -23% +44%

14. “Water Security”  Definition: ‘Acceptable’ quantity and quality of water for life and ecosystems with ‘acceptable’ level of water-related risks  Necessary condition for economic growth Wealthy countries ‘harnessed hydrology’—most in easy conditions Poor countries faced with “difficult hydrology”  “direct consequence” – Have not achieved water security  Some “hampered by hydrology”  Some even worse off—”hostage to hydrology” Bleak prognosis unless huge investments made to achieve “minimum platform” of water security

15. Poverty and Hydrology—Grey and Sadoff

16. 2. Three assumptions A.Water security as necessary condition for economic growth B.Achieving water security requires large- scale water infrastructure C.High level of faith that “stakeholder consultation” will ensure equity and environmental sustainability

17. A. Water security as necessary condition for economic growth  Use “stories,” e.g., TVA in USA, Murray-Darling in Australia, hydroelectric in western Europe to make positive case Imply these were critical pre-requisites to national growth – but no evidence given Admit but minimize social and environmental costs No questions asked on longer-term sustainability  Contested argument that increasingly resonates in other “over-developed” areas in Asia, Mexico, USA  Question not asked: Were there alternative investments to achieve development goals? Public presentations—say “there is no alternative” Need critical in-depth studies and use these studies as basis for developing more useful scenario and decision-support tools

18. B. Achieving water security requires large-scale water infrastructure  “Infrastructure” includes institutions necessary to build and manage it  Where hydrology “difficult” failure to invest in water security  “deeper hole”  In this situation, initial returns to large water infrastructure will be low in conventional terms Growing investments  higher returns over time until minimum platform, then balance of management- infrastructural investment returns shift

19. Achieving water security requires large- scale water infrastructure  Are there no alternatives?  If so, why are they not considered?  What is needed in terms of knowledge, skills, public action to stimulate and contribute to such debates? The Case of Agricultural Water Management (AWM) Investments in SSA

20. The “Consensus” View  Low level of irrigation in SSA  Massive irrigation investments key to Asian “Green Revolution”  Therefore, massive irrigation investments are needed in SSA  Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Program (CAADP), and  Commission for Africa (“Blair Report”)  Both argue for doubling irrigated area by 2015 Are the “solutions” of yesterday and Asia applicable to the future and to SSA?

21. The Figures on irrigated Area

22. Some counter-arguments  Most staple food is not irrigated in SSA Improving rainfed agriculture may have higher payoffs to reduce poverty (Comprehensive Assessment)  Insufficient surface water available  Financial and human resources insufficient High cost, though often SSA costs are exaggerated  Long gestation period for formal irrigation  Wide range of low-cost individualized AWM technologies available and proven successful Per Euro invested, more beneficiaries, food security, income, achievable in short time, with better opportunity to target

23. Why is there strong resistance to supporting policies and programs for micro-AWM & rain fed? Growing evidence of benefits Benefits accrue quickly Synergies with infrastructure projects Development banks, governments pay lip service to rainfed and small technologies WHY?

24. Treadle Pumps--Types ZAMBIA KENYA S. AFRICA SWAZI- LAND INDIA

25. C. Faith in “Stakeholder Consultation”  International consensus view this will lead to equitable and harmonious “IWRM” oSocial and environmental costs can be reduced using local knowledge and consultation Is this realistic?  Most citizens poor, not organized, lack information Up against power vested interests supported by government officials Even South Africa, best example of a country that is committed and trying—disappointing results

26. Will ‘stakeholder consultation’ be added to the long list of failed water reforms?  Radical reforms needed for effective empowerment of stakeholders—rare  Need large-scale comparative studies on approaches to identifying drivers for success  Need radical change in training of water professionals Even M.Sc. courses in “IWRM” rarely provide real training in building coalitions and working with stakeholders

27. 3. Political Economy of Water Investments  Why do development banks, governments continued to emphasize need for large- scale infrastructure investments nearly exclusively with little attention to water options that may benefit more people more quickly at lower costs? Why do they continue to pay lip service to ‘stakeholder consultation’ but avoid creating the political conditions necessary for it to work?

28. Political Economy of Water Investments  Political economy of water investment decisions is a knowledge gap Wageningen University a leader in researching politics of irrigation schemes and now river basin management Rhetoric: banks support country-driven projects—reality quite different and complex  IIMI Dutch associate expert examined this in 2 Sri Lankan irrigation schemes funded by ADB 20 years ago

29. Political Economy of Water Investments  Sri Lanka case: ADB & its consultants drove projects Imposed design and operational standards Never accepted by Irrigation Dept. No ownership—”No one cared” Bank but not government reacted very negatively to Nijman’s drafts  Development banks-consultants-governments- ”beneficiaries” nexus: complex and not understood Fertile ground for research Development bank staff may do excellent technical studies but work within their own institutional paradigms Universities better placed to do this than international organizations

30. 4. Conclusions: Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water Professional Grand opportunities to make a different in Africa African professionals—special responsibility & commitment Others can work as partners, learning and contributing together, and influencing governments and policy shapers globally Water is political: Powerful vested interests maximize benefits. In this context how can we knowledge producers and processors play a more active and decisive role? Conclude with a few questions to open a wider discussion at this Conference

31. Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water Professional  Is “water security” a pre-requisite for development?  Is large-scale infrastructure the only road to water security Who are its real beneficiaries in developing countries What constellation of interests and driving forces lead to favoring large-scale infrastructure over alternatives? Applies to development banks, governments

32. Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water Professional  Are there alternative investment roads? How can the policy space be widened to consider alternative options? How can coalitions be mobilized nationally and internationally to support alternatives?  What strategies and reforms can empower poor stakeholders to participate effectively in investment decisions? How can governments and international agencies foster this? Or are they indeed part of the problem?

33. Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water Professional What indeed are the proper roles for knowledge producers and processors and how can our effectiveness be enhanced? To inform research and actions socially as well as technically, a new kind of water professional will be needed in future Much to do, little time Will the water professionals of tomorrow work within and therefore sink under old paradigms?

34. Or will we swim to new paradigms and thereby a better world in future? Our real clients 

35. More clients Thank you!