1. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Putting the “Globe” into U.S. GLOBEC New Models and Methods in Support of Integrated Climate Research Dale Haidvogel IMCS, Rutgers University dale@imcs.rutgers.edu

2. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Outline 1. U.S. GLOBEC as an example of new approaches to Integrated Climate Research 2. Requirements for Pan-Regional Synthesis 3. Status and skill of end-to-end systems 4. Next steps

3. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences U.S. GLOBEC The principal objective of U.S. GLOBEC research is to understand and predict the effects of global climate change on ocean ecosystem dynamics

4. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas & Principal Target Species Georges Bank Copepods Atlantic Cod Haddock Southern Ocean Krill California Current Copepods Euphausiids Coho Salmon Chinook Salmon Gulf of Alaska Copepods Euphausiids Pink Salmon

5. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas & Physical Processes Georges Bank Stratification Retention/Loss Cross-Front Exchange Southern Ocean Stratification Sea Ice Dynamics Retention/Loss California Current Stratification Upwelling/Downwelling Cross-Shelf Exchange Gulf of Alaska Stratification Buoyancy-Driven Flow Downwelling Cross-Shelf Exchange

6. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Goals of U.S. GLOBEC Synthesis Undertake regional and pan-regional synthesis and comparisons among U.S. GLOBEC study locations and international programs to understand the impacts of climate change and variability on selected target species and marine ecosystems Integrate process-oriented, observational, and retrospective studies through conceptual and mathematical models Bridge the nested spatial/temporal scales of these GLOBEC program elements through modeling to understand climates-scale impacts Develop tools needed to predict the responses of populations and ecosystems to global climate change and climate variability Contribute to management of living marine resources in an ecosystem context

7. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences U.S. GLOBEC Approach to Integrated Climate Research

8. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Climate Model Biases

9. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences ROMS NEP Grid (10 km) POP SST (20 August 2000)

10. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Multi-scale modeling in the North Pacific

11. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Status of Three Regional Domains ΔxΔxNowNextWhen? NPac0.18 o 1958- 1978 1978- 2006 As time permits NEP10 km1958- 2004 Add tides Soon CCS3 km20002000- 2004 † 1-2 months † Adjoint-based assimilation Curchitser, Hedstrom, Powell, Hermann, Moore, Haidvogel

12. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Domain: 20 - 73N, 115 – 210E ROMS: 226 x 642 x 42 gridpoints Subdaily (6 hr) T42 CORE wind and fluxes (Large and Yeager) Initial/boundary conditions provided by CCSM-POP hindcast model Forward run for 1958-2004—includes multiple El Nino’s, regime shifts, and 2002 cold intrusion Outputs: Daily averaged physical snapshots of velocity, temperature, etc. NEP Implementation

13. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences The 1976-77 Regime Shift SST Patterns From Schwing et al. (2002) Note: Left panel is May only; Right is Annual 1961-75 1978-96 -PDO +PDO

14. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences 2000 1997 1998 7-8 July 2000 Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July Well defined core of California Under Current in 1997, 1998, 2000; close to slope

15. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences 2002 1999 9-11 July 2002 Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July Weaker, more diffuse California Under Current in 1999 & 2002; not adjacent to slope

16. Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Next Steps 1. Fully integrate ROMS within CCSM (underway @ NCAR) 2. Demonstration in multiple physical settings (pilot projects) 3. Engage wider community (e.g., CLIVAR, IMBER) (conference)