1. Climatic Drivers in Central Victoria Dale Grey DPI Cobram Big Hill Cropping Agronomist Friday, 24 th June 2011

2. Classic Mediterranean Rainfall pattern

3. Annual Rainfall Absurd level of variability

4. Annual- 5 year moving average Federation WWII

5. Summer Autumn Winter Spring

6. Lake Wartook Ballarat Macedon Warburton Woods Point Harrietville Autumn rainfall 5 year moving average

8. November 2006 Cold off Darwin-Qld El Niño El Niño surface temperature anomaly

9. December 31st 2007 Warm off Darwin-Qld La Niña Classic horseshoe shape of warm water for La Niña

11. August 2006 IOD+ Cool Broome-Brisbane Strong in 2006, weak IOD+ in 2007 and strong again in 2008, the triple whammy. x x

12. October 21st 2010 IOD- Warm Broome-Brisbane Only a weak one this year. Started in late Sept, through October, gone in November. Probably wont be recognised as an official IOD- year x x

13. 18 years 24 years 1877-2010 El niño 23 years La niña 29 years

15. Southern Annular Mode, SAM or AAO Measures the strength of polar westerlies in the Southern Ocean. The SAM index is calculated by the differences in pressure between 40 o and 65 o degrees latitude Most of the upward trend is over Summer and Autumn

16. 2010 the winter SAM was strongly Positive. Developing La Nina trumped this in Victoria and we got average rainfall, speak to someone in WA and Sth Africa about it though. Source = NOAA

17. 2009 the winter SAM was strongly Negative. The developing uncoupled El Nino failed to trump this in Victoria. Source = NOAA

18. 13 years -SAM 11 years +SAM 1957-2009

20. The Sub tropical ridges originate as a result of the Hadley Cells emanating from the Equator. One in each hemisphere, dry, descending air, causing high pressure. Mediterranean climates and deserts occur in these regions of the world. Sub-tropical ridge

21. Sub Tropical Ridge July 2009 Winter pattern, strong highs centered over the top of the Bight Jan 2009 The High pressure belt lying over Australia and at all mid latitudes of the world. Summer pattern, centre of highs over Melbourne

22. 27 years 28 years 30 years 1890-2009

23. Maroon Sweet Pea, October 2011, Koonoomoo, taken by D Grey

24. Winter Pacific Ocean- Mixed Indian Ocean- Neutral (weak IOD+) Winter Rainfall- Average Winter Temperature- Average/slightly warmer

25. Spring Pacific Ocean- Mixed Indian Ocean- Neutral (weak IOD+) Spring Rainfall- Mixed Spring Temperature- Average

26. Diani Beach, southern Kenya Nias Island, west Sumatra That’s all Folks See me to Subscribe to “The Break” eNEWSLETTER